Dear Reddit. I have started writing a book of short stories about my life as a hobo. True to my nature of blowing money faster than it came, or blowing the opportunity of even making it, I love you assholes and will let you read the book for free as I write it from the beginning. Enjoy
Chapter One: Bozeman or Bust (lots of bust) I had done it once again, like so many other years before, by traveling north to one of the harshest and coldest states that a hobo could possibly go to during the dead of winter, late-January 2021: Mon-fucking-tana. Or as the locals jokingly say, "Montucky". (edit: Shout-out to Montucky Cold Snacks, the cheap horse-piss watered down beer that is Montana's equivalent of Washington's "Rainier Ale" or Oregon's "Session Lager"). I digress. If I was a goose, I'd surely be the Jonathan Livingston Seagull of the flock…the black sheep shitshow of a goose flying in the completely wrong direction at the worst time of the year. As forementioned, this was not the first time, nor second time, that I've done this. In fact, it's become a habit, if not straight-up routine. Laramie, Wyoming circa November 2016. Glendive, Montana circa January 2015 Minot, North Dakota circa January 2014. Yukon, Canada circa November 2013. Bellingham, Washington circa January 2006. The list goes on, and on, and on… And here I am. Bozeman Fucking Montana, circa January-February 2021. The locals say it's an unusually warm winter, which by Montana's standards might include 5 inches of snow in the afternoon and temperatures dropping below 10F degrees at night. However, according to the high standards of a low-class hobo born and raised on the Gulf Coast of Alabama, this weather is colder than a witches tit. Now, that's not to say that I ain't prepared though. I assure you that I am. Sixteen years of living on the road and rails has made this black goose a well-seasoned bird, with all the trimmings. I have a military sleeping bag that can keep me alive down to negative 30 temperatures. My military backpack is waterproof, and so are the snowboarding pants that I wear under my insulated Carharrt overalls. I have alpaca wool thermal pants, merino wool socks, thermolite waterproof boots, thinsulated gloves, and several wool and polyster beanie hats. My dual-layer mountaineering tent can withstand hurricane-force winds and all the snow that a blizzard can muster. Winter? Montana? Bring it bitch. Hit me with your best shot. You know I like it. wink Sigh. However, DESPITE the freezing temperatures and shit tons of snow, there's a lil secret that I've learned during my many years of traveling, and that secret is certainly DUE to these wintery conditions: Jobs! Lots and lots and lots and lots of jobs! Jobs here, jobs there, jobs every-fucking-where. Hotel jobs, restaurant jobs, retail jobs, construction jobs, maintenance jobs, driving jobs, even jobs just to help other people get more damn jobs! You want a job during winter? Well they got jobs out northern Californie way, Oregonie way, Montanie way, Washingtonie way, North and South Dakotie way, and every which way can go above above the Mason-Dixon line! If you can't find a damn job in the Northwestern United States of America during winter, you ain't fucking looking, and that's a fact. If you got one arm and you can swing a hammer, or punch a number on a cash register, then consider yourself hired on the spot and you can start today. Before this chapter turns into an entire damn book of its own (A Hobo's Guide to Finding Jobs) let's get back to the story here: Bozeman or Bust. As I begin this chapter, I have a red-wine hangover that is enough to drive me to a bullet in the head. I made a pot of coffee only to puke it back up on my hands and knees in front the porcelain thrown. I think it was good ole Earnest Hemingway that once said "Write Drunk, Edit Sober". Experienced words of wisdom from a fine man that knew everything a man could possibly know about drinking shit tons of wine and writing shit tons of stories. I wouldn't be lying if I was to confess that Mr. Hemingway, along with Mr. Steinbeck and Mr. Twain, are drunken heroes of mine that I could only hope someday to sit alongside in the bookstores of Hell and Hades with a gallon of cheap Merlot. Salut, gentleman. After puking, rolling cigarettes, drinking coffee, and puking several times more, I was finally able to sit down to try and remember what-the-fuck happened yesterday; a solemn meditation technique that involves tons of coffee and contemplation; a time to worship the asinine achievements that are accompanied in both rejoice and regret. Yesterday started off sober as a saint. I had a job interview at this place I had found on craigslist, some place looking for fresh warm bodies to fill up their production-assembly line. I took a bus to the address they had given me, which ended up being the adress to the Bozeman City Bank. "A bank?", I thought, as I wondered around the parking lot dumbfounded and confused for a solid 5 minutes, checking the address several times on my phone, wondering why on earth I've been sent to a state bank. After circling the parking lot, I noticed a door on the side of the bank that said "Job Choices Employment Services: Second Floor". Godammit. I had been fucking conned. Fucking craigslist. I know what's going on here…this a goddamn employment agency that wants to take 10-15 percent of my paycheck, take away my rights to healthcare and benefits, in the so-called promise of finding me a "great career path of opportunity". Employment agencies. Just like rats. The only "opportunity" here was them: Creatures of opportunity, parasites hellbent on scavaging peoples money and benefits. "A not-even-close-to-great career path of 9-5 slave-labor bullshit involving years of suckling away your mind, body, and spirit", the sign on the door should have read. This was definitely a mistake. And anyone that has ever had the unfortunate pleasure of being with me can you tell one thing about me: I fucking love mistakes. I love making them, and I love learning from them. I am a walking-talking connoisseur of mistakes. In fact, I just made a mistake trying to spell connoisseur, so I asked Google "Hey Google, spell connoisseur", and due to lack of interpreting my Alabama accent, Google made the mistake of showing me the word Coitus. I have now learned that the word "coitus" is another word for sex. As a writer and the son of an English teacher, I love learning new words. As a human male, I love sex. So learning a new word for "sex" is a fantastic trade-off for that fortunate mistake! I digress. I decided to walk into the bank, up the stairs to the second floor, and down the hall to the employment agency. A well-dressed and very sexy debutant by the name of Tracy stood up and greeted me with a smile that was formal, professional, and admittedly very sexy. While my dirty mind started playing cheap porn music, along with vivid images of me and Tracy wrecking that office like wild alleycats, I was suddenly snapped back into reality with Tracy's sexy voice, saying: "Hey, you must be Mr. Huck! Are you here for the 3:00 o'clock interview? Could you please start by filling out this application? You can have a seat over at the desk here"… Godammit. This employment agency was GOOD. I was Tracy's submissive little slut. I walked right where Tracy told me to walk, sat right in the chair Tracy pulled out for me to sit in, and I started filling out the application with the ballpoint pen that Tracy had somehow put in my hand without me even realizing it. Tracy could have stolen my wallet and the 11 dollars inside of it as well, had she wanted to, and I wouldn't have even noticed. And even if I had noticed, I would have let her do it anyway. Godammit! As I started to fill out the application, I got to the section I dreaded most: job references. Oh boy…allow me to tell you a little about Huck's references, or lacktherof: At my last job, I was fired because of a fight that broke-out between my ex-girlfriend and myself, which began with lots of shouting and shoving, and ended with me getting a black-eye from being punched in the face twice. Fun fact: Italian women are fiery as they are fierce, and bold as they are beautiful. And just like their male Italian counterparts, such as Sylvester Stalone or Al Capone, they know how to land a solid right jab. This fight erupted in the worker's dormitory for all employees to hear and see. And although I was the one with the swollen black eye, I was the one they decided to fire. C'est la vie, such is life. Que sera sera, it be what it fucking be. We can scratch that job off as a reference, without a doubt. The job before that, I was at a marijuana farm called "Great American Cannabis", in which my managers and co-workers tried to recruit me into a far-right group of sexist and racist baboons called "The Proud Boys". There was a pre-determining factor in why that farm had hired me, and assumed I would be interested in their idealogical gang. That pre-determing factor was the very same factor that led Google to teaching me the wrong word and definition: my Alabama accent. Great American Cannabis had hired me based on a phone interview, in which they assumed my southern accent indicated two things, in which case one of their assumptions was right, and one was wrong: Assumption Numero Uno: Huck has an Alabama accent, which therefore indicates that he has years of experience working on farms, growing plants, and being an honest and hard-worker. Assumption Numero Dos: Huck has an Alabama accent, therefore he must be idealogically aligned with far-right beliefs including sexism and racism. Welp, I am proud to say that even that although a 50% winning percentage may be fine and dandy with gambling in Vegas, and can be seen as half full or half empty based on however optimisitic or pessimistic you might be, in the case of Great American Cannabis and The Proud Boys, those odds ended pretty badly. As it turns out, despite being raised by a racist father and surrounded by bigotry in the not-so-sweet home of Alabama, those very dispositions made this black sheep child rebel from such ass-backward beliefs, and I am staunchly pro-civil rights, which means I am pro-immigration, and a proud supporter of the sufferage movement for womens right. Obviously, that did not go very well with my co-workers at the farm, and I was fired within the first month. But wait, theres more tragic humor to the story of this farm, which I'll organize in two keypoints: Keypoint Numero Uno: The farm was owned by Iranian immigrants. I…shit…you…not. That's right. YOU DID READ THAT CORRECTLY. Not only was the farm owned and managed by a minority group of immigrants, those very immigrants came directly from the very country is at the VERY TOP of White-America's shitlist: Iran. Keypoint Numeros Dos: After I was fired based almost entirely according to my leftist and progressive views on race and gender equality, within just a couple of weeks nearly everybody on the farm was fired and replaced by cheaper immigrant labor in the form of Laotian women. That's right…a white-blooded American-born legal-working male, was replaced by brown-blooded, foreign-born, mostly-illegal-working females, on a farm owned and managed by right-wing racists and sexists that were anti-immigration. Once again, I…shit…you…fucking…not...let THAT shit sink in. I literally cannot make this shit up, and let it be forever proof that reality, however tragic or ironic it may be, is far greater than fiction. You can write that last sentence in a letter, shove that puppy in an envelope, slap that bitch with a stamp, and mail it to the fucking MOON. Or you can mail it to Iran, or Laos, whichever you prefer. However, I digress. So, being that I was fired from Great American Cannabis by a bunch of Iranian Proud Boys, you can scratch that job off of the "reference" list as well. Sigh. So, how about the job before that? Well, that's a hell of a story too, but I'll make it quick and cut shorter to the chase: I worked on a fishing boat for a Mormon captain. Although I loved him like a Dad, and he often treated me like a son, my job ended in these words: "Huck, I really like you. You're one of the hardest working deckhands I've ever had, despite it being a very terrible year for fishing. However, as a man that is a Latter Day Saint of God, as a Mormon, I'm going to have to ask you to leave because of three reasons: 1) You smoke cigarettes, marijuana, and drink alcohol and coffee. 2) You curse worse than a sailor. 3) You are an atheist/agnostic." And in case you, the reader did not know: Mormons HATE cigarettes, marijuana, alcohol, AND coffee. They are forbidden to curse, and they are not even allowed to tolerate the company of anyone that isn't a believer in God. Well Godammit. How in the hell am I so goddamn misfortunate and unlucky, to be the must FIRST FUCKING PERSON in the entire HISTORY OF FISHING, that has gotten fired for using curse words and drinking whiskey. I couldn't even absorb the fact that my boss was firing me because I couldn't get over the fact that I was possibly the first sailor or fisherman in all of ocean-faring humanity that had gotten fired for doing what sailors and fisherman are guaranteed and known to do best: drinkin' and cursin' We can also scratch THAT job off the possible reference list as well. It was at this point in the office of Job Choices Bozeman that the porn music had long since stopped playing in my head, and that I suddenly and swiftly fell deeply into a full blown existential crisis right there in Tracy's office while simply trying to think of a single reference from my last 3 jobs. The unbelievable amount of misfortune, tragedy, irony, and utter insanity of my last 3 job experiences had truly started to sink in, and I was beginning to legitimately lose my temporary grasp on sanity along with my faith in humanity altogether in one great, big, sloppy sandwich of existential fucking crisis. Allow me to self-diagnose this existential crisis sandwich by peeling off some of the layers of this enormous stinking onion that is in the middle of it all: Either that curse that was put on me a few years ago by a Mexican trainhopping gypsy from New Orleans is proof that curses are indeed fucking real, or either I am the unluckiest son of a bitch on this entire planet that is so very unlucky that I am slowly (or quickly) coming to the conclusion that this entire life is a simulation that is programmed by some sick comedic asshole that specializes in the tragedies of both irony AND misfortune. And though some people in this world call that programmer God or Allah or Jehovah, I call him Jeff. I call him "Jeff in Programming", with same amount of disdain and hatred that Michael Scott refers to "Toby in Human Resources" in the American version of the show "The Office". (Sidenote: If you do not understand my last reference because you have not watched The Office, then you need to stop reading this book right now, go sign up for one month of Netflix, and spend that entire month binge-watching one of the greatest sitcoms ever made in the history of television: The Office (US Version). Go. Now!) I digress. As I collapsed into a full-blown existential crisis while thinking of job references on the second floor employment services office above Montana State Bank, my fantasy-based relationship with Tracy was also about to crumble into an existential crisis as well, based on two very important qualities: Quality Numero Uno: Tracy and I had no relationship that actually existed outside of my head and a stupid job application form. We had never knocked over all of the filing cabinets, water-cooler, or broken the copying machine with tantric sex. That scenario never existed period. Quality Numeros Dos: I was about to not only lie, but also commit non-existent adultery to Tracy, thus putting a very real end to a not-very-real relationship. I stood up from the desk that me and Tracy had never fucked on, and I told Tracy that I had to use the bathroom. And though I did really have to use the bathroom, it wasn't for the purpose of pissing or taking a shit, it was for the purpose of throwing the application in the toilet and sneaking my way down the hallway and out of the employment agency. In which case, that is precisely what I did. Upon stepping out of the door and back into the parking lot of Bozeman City Bank, I noticed another hot little woman across the street: A dazzling red-headed freckle-faced damsel by the name of Wendy, who promised in her fertile bosom the birth of two-dollar cheeseburgers and loaded baked potatoes. I went inside Wendy's house, and began to have an oral relationship by penetrating my mouth with nearly everything that was offered on Wendy's dollar-value menu. Stop here, acquire coffee, booze, and cigarettes until I feel like writing again, which may be later tonight, tomorrow morning, or possibly fucking never
How To Value A Stock (From Someone Who Has Beaten The S&P Almost Every Year Since 2008)
I recently wrote this up for my friends who asked me how I do what I do. I figured I'd share it here. This is freely available to anyone who wants it, though please credit me if you simply copy/paste. Nothing here is novel, and can be done by anyone. I am not a financial professional, and the example given below is only Abbvie because I forgot that Abbott Labs was alphabetically the first in the S&P 500 when picking an example. First, let’s come right out and say that if you do not have the time to do this, or do not find it enjoyable, just buy low-cost index funds that track either the total market or the S&P 500. Second, let’s make an important distinction: Investing – This is the act of purchasing assets for less than their intrinsic value. This PDF will focus on how to determine the intrinsic value of an asset that produces income. Note that for most assets, this is simply how much money you can extract from the asset over the period of time that you hold it for. There’s no other value than money in investing. Causes and emotions are what philanthropy is for. Speculating – This is, at its core, the act of taking supply of an asset from the present to the future (by hoarding it). If there is more demand, lower supply, or both, this pays the speculator to take the asset from a period of low value to one of high value. It is not gambling, but is very difficult to do, since it entails taking on timing risk. It is not illegal, immoral, or impossible, but I have no special insight into it. I’ll leave it there. Gambling – This looks a lot like speculation, but without any particular reason to believe the asset will be more valuable in the future. Speculators at least estimate the value of an asset to investors, as they are ultimately the end market for an asset. Do not gamble. Full stop. Determining the intrinsic value of an asset The value of an asset is simply the present value of all future income that asset can provide you. Since a dollar in five years is naturally less valuable than a dollar today, you have to discount future income against the opportunity cost of forgoing the dollars you invest today. When we get to the Present Value equation, this is represented by interest. It can also be thought of as the opportunity cost of investing in the asset instead of some other asset or simply consuming the dollars instead. Here’s the actual math. Note that it’s not super hard, and while I will explain it, there are dozens of free websites that will quickly let you calculate this. The key phrase to Google would be “present value of a growing annuity calculator.” PV = (C / i - G) * {1 – [(1 + G)/(1 + i)]^n} PV = present value C = cash flow per period n = number of payments i = interest rate G = growth rate The value for PV is your estimation of what the asset is worth today. If this ends up far higher than the market price, you are probably purchasing dollars for quarters. Avoid edge cases, as you are guessing about both the interest and growth rate. C is the cash flow per period. If you have a high degree of confidence in the culture of the company and it has a long history of being good stewards of retained earnings, you can use the earnings per share (EPS). I usually use the dividend. It is impossible to fake or financially engineer a dividend, and requires less looking through financial documents to make sure it’s what it appears to be. But for, say, Apple or Microsoft or Chevron, feel free to use the EPS. The number of payments is how many payments you expect while holding the asset. Dividends in American companies are typically quarterly (though some pay monthly or every six months, so check on that), so every multiple of four would represent one year if you choose to do it that way. If n = 16, then you’re expecting to hold the asset for 4 years. You can also put in a year’s worth of dividends and keep n = years rather than quarters. I typically do n = 30, since 30 years is both a long time horizon that is realistic, and coincides when I will hit “retirement age.” You will have to decide how far ahead you’re planning. For most people, they are net purchasers of investments while working and net sellers while retired, so keep that in mind. Note that using years instead of quarters will lessen the amount of compounding, and will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong. Interest is one of the two variables you have to guess at. Typically, one would put what you expect the actual long-run interest rate to average for this investment. Unfortunately, this is really difficult. Instead, I use a rate that represents my opportunity cost. There are any number of relatively safe ways to get a 5% yield on money invested, so I generally use i = 5% to represent that this asset has to perform better than a utility or telecom or real estate investment trust. Feel free to use what you feel is most appropriate for you. A higher interest rate will lower the value of the asset, so high-balling this number will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong. The second variable you have to guess at is the growth rate. If you’re looking at the dividend, you want to know how fast to expect it to grow over time. If you’re using the EPS for C, then you want to see how quickly the total earnings are growing per share. This is extremely difficult to predict. I recommend taking the 5-year growth rate and halving it. Dividends will also be more predictable here, as most companies pay out far less than they make, which means even if EPS grows slowly, the dividend can still grow quickly for many years after a boom is over for the company. Note that lowering your estimate for G will lower the value of the asset, so low-balling this number will provide some cushion in case you’re wrong. OK, so let’s walk through an example. I’ll use Abbvie, a biotech/pharmaceutical company. It has a quarterly dividend for the coming year of $1.30/share. Its dividend has an 18.5% growth rate over the last 5 years, and has grown it for the last 7 (it’s only been around for 8 years). I assumed a growth rate (G) of 7%. I used $5.20 as the starting dividend this coming year and used years for my n = 30. As always, I used i = 5%. This gave me an estimated present value of 1 share of Abbvie at $197.94. As of writing this, Abbvie shares are trading on the market at $103.43. This looks like a screaming buy, but first let’s look at why I have a high degree of confidence. Note how the interest was higher than the going rate – I used my “low-risk alternative” as an opportunity cost. Abbvie has an extremely high rate of growth for its dividend, so I took less than half of its current rate. I also calculated annually rather than quarterly, which reduces the impact of high rates of growth. That’s three places in the equation where I consciously lowered the estimated value of a share of Abbvie, and it still came out as a strong buy – spending less about 50c for a dollar! I do this because even if I’m wrong in some or all of my predictions, I now have quite a bit of room to be wrong and still make money. It’s like how you don’t walk next to a steep cliff, right? You should know how to walk where you want to, but there’s always the small chance something could cause you to slip or put a foot wrong. But if your plan is always to be 5 feet away from the edge of the cliff, the odds are that you’ll not go over the edge even if you fall down. Many people feel this is over cautious. But let my portfolio speak for itself. I’ve beaten the S&P 500 index fund every year except one since 2008. My brokerage only keeps digital records back to Dec 2015, but the S&P 500 returned 101% since then – with dividends reinvested. My own portfolio has returned 256%. So caution is still very high reward. In fact, if you just don’t lose, you’ll do better than the vast majority of professional money managers (about 85% of whom cannot even match the index funds). Due diligence still has to occur Now, we can’t just go straight out and buy Abbvie – though it’s a high profile company that receives lots of investor and regulator scrutiny so it’s less likely to have a landmine than most. Just to make sure, you’ll want to do the following before buying shares in this company: -Check the debt load. If the debt is very high, has very high interest rates, or has a lot of it maturing very soon, then this is a yellow flag. It doesn’t mean don’t buy, but make sure you understand the structure of the company’s debt and make sure it won’t impair the company’s earnings going forward. This information is found on the balance sheet. Abbvie has $97.287 billion in long-term liabilities such as debt, pension liability, and deferred taxes. That’s a lot compared to their assets, but they also are owed some money, so it nets out about $90 billion. -What’s the book value? Book value is fairly low at $8.65/share. This is pretty much the assets minus the liabilities. Abbvie is in a knowledge industry, however, so you shouldn’t expect their main assets to be physical capital that can be sold. It’s mostly organizational or human capital from their workforce, so this isn’t worrying. If Abbvie was, say, a retailer with stores and land and inventory, you’d want this to be much, much higher for the share price. There’s no easy way to judge this one, unfortunately, but it’s good to look it up and you’ll eventually get a feel for it. No red flags here. -What are the catastrophic risks that even you or I could think of? For a company in the pharmaceutical space, the obvious answer is regulatory and political risk. Regulatory risk is just want it sounds like – more regulation which can be either costly to comply with or lower profits. This does have an upside, which is that it makes it harder for new competitors to enter a market, so I tend to be rather sanguine about regulatory risk. Political risk is much more severe. This is when politicians decide to either confiscate a company, target it specifically rather than the industry it’s in, or other ways in which the government is involved with taking rather than regulating. In Anglo countries (US/UK/Canada/Australia), the rule of law is typically strong enough that this doesn’t happen much, as there is usually some kind of due process. Places like China, Argentina, Russia, and the EU are much more likely to nationalize or otherwise capriciously penalize a company due to the prevailing political winds. Abbvie has a global footprint, but that also means it’s diversified against such risk. It’s headquartered in the US, so it’s unlikely someone will simply take the entire company. -Payout ratio? Abbvie has a fairly high payout ratio (80% for the last completed fiscal year of 2019), as they have been aggressively growing the dividend. That’s another good reason to input a much lower G than the last few years. That being said, Abbvie has been around for 8 years (it was spun off of Abbott Labs) and has grown its dividend for the last 7 years and has announced it will this coming year as well. The payout ratio is pretty high, but not worrisome. It suggests a fairly mature company that’s now returning cash to shareholders. I’d say this is not nothing, but less than a yellow flag for me. Any company with 95%+ payout ratio is much more vulnerable to a dividend cut. -Credit rating? S&P gives Abbvie a BBB+ grade for its unsecured debt. This is a slight downgrade because their balance sheet is currently digesting a big acquisition from early 2020 (Allergan). Moody’s gives it a Baa2 rating for unsecured debt. These are both good, solid, investment-grade credit ratings (if you were buying the bonds of Abbvie). This looks great. -Does it need a genius? Some companies run on all cylinders because they have a genius at the helm – often a founder. But what you want is a company any dummy can run, because sooner or later any dummy will. Don’t plan to invest long-term in companies that require skilled management. Abbvie is fairly diversified and has an OK pipeline of research. They also can buy little biotech companies that invent something but can’t navigate the regulations to bring it to market. So pondering giants are actually a good thing. Means they’re hard to break. So, given that there was nothing obviously treacherous in our basic due diligence, and the extreme discount at which our example is selling for, this would be one you might want to buy! This is what I do for all the companies I invest in. Notice that there is no story, no excitement, no narrative, no counting on good or bad management. Emotion has no place in investing. You also will notice that we took every opportunity to reduce the risk of losing your capital by always sandbagging the estimated value of the company. You never want to pick up nickels in front of a steamroller. You want the investment to be so obvious it hits you in the face like a baseball bat. If you’re ever on the fence, don’t do it. You don’t have to hit home runs – just don’t strike out. You can be even more conservative in your estimates than I am. If, for instance, you used 5% growth rate for Abbvie’s dividend, you’d still get a present value of $148.57/share vs the current market price of $103.43. Similarly, you could use a higher interest rate, which would also lower the estimated present value. You may have to do this calculation with more companies to find one to buy, but even in a very expensive market like today’s, there is always an opportunity. You don’t even have to look at little companies. There’s around 500 companies in the S&P – just start with “A” and work your way through all of them. A quick note about further reading: I very strongly urge most people to actually read as little as possible on this subject once they get the basics. That’s not because there’s not more to learn, but because I would sadly say the majority of what I see and hear is actively bad advice. But if you do want to keep up with financial news and books and chat boards, the best thing to do is find out what the historical returns of the person giving advice are. Since WWII, the long-run return on the S&P 500 has generally been just a bit shy of 10% per year. If someone can’t beat that, year-in-and-year-out, then their advice is worthless. As in, you don’t want to accidentally absorb it. This is, unfortunately, true for most professionals. Over the last 15 years, 92.2% of actively managed funds have underperformed a simple S&P 500 index fund (and they charge you fees for the privilege). Beware anyone selling something. The advice here is given freely That’s why I made a point of mentioning that I have and regularly outperform the standard fund almost every year. Granted, I don’t have many of the regulatory restrictions a public fund would have, but it shows how useful the advice I’m giving here is. You don’t need anything fancy. You don’t need anything high risk. I’ve done this through two deep recessions and the longest bull market in history. If you want to learn more about investing in general and where I learned how to do this, you can read Benjamin Graham’s The Intelligent Investor. It was written in the 1930s, so much of the technical information is out of date. Skip over that and just read it for the concepts. Even easier reading is to go online to Berkshire Hathaway’s website and pull Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger’s annual letter to shareholders. Almost all of them have something useful in them and don’t make you do equations. I am available for questions in the comments
FuboTV DD (First time making DD, please give advice)
I tried to make it easy to skip around if you just want to see the financials or estimates. Just scroll to them if you don't care what the company is or their sectocompetition/management. TL;DR at bottom with final thoughts. Introduction “FuboTV ($FUBO) is an American streaming television service that focuses primarily on channels that distribute live sports, including NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, MLS and international soccer, plus news, network television series and movies. Launched on January 1, 2015 as a soccer streaming service, FuboTV changed to an all-sports service in 2017 and then to a virtual multichannel video programming distributor (vMVPD) model. As a vMVPD, FuboTV still calls itself sports-first but its expanded channel lineup targets cord cutters, offering a selection of major cable channels and OTT-originated features that can be streamed through smart TVs, mobile and tablets and the web. The service is available in the United States, Canada and Spain as of 2018." From their home page: They are the only competitors in their space of digital sports broadcasting, offer 4K streaming and upscaling of live sports, cloud DVR capability ranging from 250 or 1000 hours on standard plans, and is available on Roku, Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV, Chromecast, Samsung Smart TVs, Xbox One, Android TV, Android Smart TVs, and Android/iOS smartphones and tablets, with plans ranging from $24.99/month to $79.99/month (not including add-ons). They have also recently acquired one company and have made plans to acquire another to allow for in-house sports betting. They have stated in a press release that they plan to release a sportsbook before the end of the year. This will push them into a broader spectrum outside of only TV and sports streaming, and into the sports betting sector along with DraftKings ($DKNG), FanDuel ($PDYPY), and Penn National Gaming ($PENN). Plans and Add-ons FuboTV offers three standardized plans as of February 8, 2021: the Family plan is priced at $64.99/month (normally $75.97/month), Elite at $79.99/month (normally $100.95/month), and Latino Quarterly at $24.99/month, along with offering additional add-ons. Each plan offers a range of channels, cloud DVR capabilities (which allows fast-forwarding through commercials), and casting to multiple devices simultaneously. Only the Elite plan does not offer a 7-day free trial (Channels page). The Family plan includes 117 channels (mostly news and entertainment with roughly 40 that offer sports, including ESPN), up to 250 hours of DVR space, and casting to 3 devices at once. The quarterly prepaid includes a free upgrade to 1000 hours of DVR space and 5 casting devices at home with 3 on the go (Channels page). The Elite plan includes 164 channels (includes an additional “47 entertainment channels”), up to 1000 hours of DVR space, and casting to 5 devices at home with 3 on the go. This plan does not offer a quarterly prepaid (Channels page). The Latino Quarterly plan includes 250 hours of DVR space and can be streamed on up to 3 devices at once, but only has 32 channels. This plan needs to be prepaid every 3 months for a total charge of $74.97 and does not offer a monthly service (Channels page). Upgrades include additional DVR space--1000 hours for an additional $6.99/month for the Family and Latino Quarterly--and increased device casting--an additional 2 devices at home with 3 on the go for another $9.99/month for the Family and Latino Quarterly plans. You can also add a variety of channels and sports packages (the Latino Quarterly has fewer channel add-ons compared to the Family and Elite plans, which both have the same channel varieties). Sports Plus with NFL RedZone is an additional $10.99/month, but includes all professional and college sports broadcasting services for football, basketball, baseball, hockey, tennis, fighting, etc. (Channels page). Fubo has recently removed its former Standard plan, which included only 65 channels, up to 2 casting devices, and only 30 hours of DVR support for $60/month. Financials and Growth Fubo has yet to file an annual report as they have gone public in October of 2020, but they have filed a 10-Q for Q3 2020. All numbers in thousands. Assets- Between December 31, 2019 and September of 2020, assets have increased from $368,225 to $799,313 (a 117% increase) . Total current assets increased from $17,973 to $58,016, but accounts receivable decreased from $8,904 to $6,975--this may be attributed to the increase in prepaid subscriptions which increased from $1,445 to $12,177 which shows strong customer satisfaction and retention. Liabilities- Liabilities have increased from $145,049 to $290,376 (a 100% increase). The largest contributors to their liabilities are “Due to related parties” increasing from $665 to $85,847, “Warrant liabilities” increasing from $24 to $28,085, and “Accounts payable” from $36,373 to $61,679. Long-term borrowings have decreased from $43,982 to $25,905. Revenues- Subscription revenues increased by $53,433, totaling $92,945 for the year. Total revenues including advertisements and licensing have increased by $61,202, totaling $112,669 for the year and an increase of 47% YOY. Q4 revenue is estimated to be between $94,000 and $98,000 which would be a 77-84% increase YOY. Expenses- Subscriber related expenses total $114,315 for the year. Total expenses have totaled $500,249 for the year. Subscribers- Ended Q3 with 455,000 paid subscribers, a YOY increase of 58%, and plans to end 2020 with over 545,000, an increase of 72% YOY. Competition Its closest competitors are Hulu + Live TV (owned by Disney ($DIS)), YouTube TV (owned by Alphabet ($GOOG)), and Sling TV (owned by Dish Network ($DISH)). Hulu + Live TV
Includes league networks
50 hours of free DVR (200 hours for $9.99/month)
More than 74 channels
Unskippable ads on DVR without upgrade to 200 hours
2 streams at a time
$64.99/month
Can add ESPN+ and Disney+ for an additional $7/month
YouTube TV
Includes league networks
Unlimited DVR storage
More than 85 channels plus YouTube Red Originals
3 streams at a time
Sports Plus package for an additional $10.99/month
NBA LeaguePass for an additional $40/month or $119.99 annually
Starting at $64.99/month
Sling TV Blue
Includes league networks
DVR up to 50 hours (200 hours for $5/month)
More than 45 channels
3 streams at a time
Sports Extra package for an additional $11/month
Starting $35/month
Can be combined with Sling TV Orange for a total of $50/month
Sling TV Orange
Includes league networks
DVR up to 50 hours (200 hours for $5/month)
More than 30 channels
1 stream at a time
Sports Extra package for an additional $11/month
Starting at $35/month
Can be combined with Sling TV Blue for a total of $50/month
Merger with FaceBank for $100 million revolving credit
Analysts and Estimates Average analyst ratings put Fubo at a Buy to Strong Buy rating with an average price target of $45.50 with a high of $60 and a low of $30. EPS estimates are estimated to be -5.23 for 2020 and -1.64 for 2021. Currently has a short float of about 75%, but the short volume has been holding at roughly 15-20% over the last month and has drastically declined from its October short volume of over 50%. Originally valued at $700 million less than a year ago, a current valuation of $3.19 billion is respectable for this company and is on par for its current performance. Risks
Marketing fails and Fubo is never known as a household name, so consumers stick with other more known providers
Their sportsbook fails and becomes dead weight and wasted money
Subscriber count and streaming drops as quarantine lifts, reducing revenues while maintaining expenses
Consumers opt for cheaper options
People paying for the sports package cancel when the season is over, creating a boom and bust cycle if not managed correctly
Final Thoughts / TL;DR With its drastic growth over the last year (400% in the last 4 months), support from FaceBank and well-known investors, and plans to join the sports betting sector, FuboTV has potential to become a household name and grow well beyond its current valuation by combining both sports broadcasting and online sports betting into one convenient place. Although unlikely to overthrow any of the current forces, it can become the best live sports broadcaster that people can turn to when they cut cable but want to keep live sports. It has many hurdles to overcome (creating their sportsbook, better marketing, increasing subscriber count, etc.) before it is any real competition to its already established competition. At a $3.19 billion market cap and very high (75%) short interest, it will be very difficult to realize consistent growth, but it is on par for a company with almost $100 million in revenue. My Position 25 shares at $47.30 Edit: edited final thoughts/TL;DR Please provide feedback! First time actually researching and compiling information for a company and not just reading about them on here. Also, please ask questions to clear up any confusion; it was kinda hard to put everything together neatly, so I might have accidentally left stuff out or oveunder explained some things.
Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis
NEW INFO 5 Results from share redemption are posted. Less than .2% redeemed. Very bullish as investors are showing extreme confidence in the future of PLBY. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/playboy-mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-120000721.html NEW INFO 4 Definitive Agreement to purchase 100% of Lovers brand stores announced 2/1. https://www.streetinsider.com/Corporate+News/Playboy+%28MCAC%29+Confirms+Deal+to+Acquire+Lovers/17892359.html NEW INFO 3 I bought more on the dip today. 5081 total. Price rose AH to $12.38 (2.15%) NEW INFO 2 Here is the full webinar. https://icrinc.zoom.us/rec/play/9GWKdmOYumjWfZuufW3QXpe_FW_g--qeNbg6PnTjTMbnNTgLmCbWjeRFpQga1iPc-elpGap8dnDv8Zww.yD7DjUwuPmapeEdP?continueMode=true&tk=lEYc4F_FkKlgsmCIs6w0gtGHT2kbgVGbUju3cIRBSjk.DQIAAAAV8NK49xZWdldRM2xNSFNQcTBmcE00UzM3bXh3AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA&uuid=WN_GKWqbHkeSyuWetJmLFkj4g&_x_zm_rtaid=kR45-uuqRE-L65AxLjpbQw.1611967079119.2c054e3d3f8d8e63339273d9175939ed&_x_zm_rhtaid=866 NEW INFO 1 Live merger webinar with PLBY and MCAC on Friday January 29, 2021 at 12:00 NOON EST link below https://mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/press-release-details/2021/Playboy-Enterprises-Inc.-and-Mountain-Crest-Acquisition-Corp-Participate-in-SPACInsider-ICR-Webinar-on-January-29th-at-12pm-ET/default.aspx Playboy going public: Porn, Gambling, and Cannabis !!!WARNING READING AHEAD!!! TL;DR at the end. It will take some time to sort through all the links and read/watch everything, but you should. In the next couple weeks, Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp is taking Playboy public. The existing ticker MCAC will become PLBY. Special purpose acquisition companies have taken private companies public in recent months with great success. I believe this will be no exception. Notably, Playboy is profitable and has skyrocketing revenue going into a transformational growth phase. Porn - First and foremost, let's talk about porn. I know what you guys are thinking. “Porno mags are dead. Why would I want to invest in something like that? I can get porn for free online.” Guess what? You are absolutely right. And that’s exactly why Playboy doesn’t do that anymore. That’s right, they eliminated their print division. And yet they somehow STILL make money from porn that people (see: boomers) pay for on their website through PlayboyTV, Playboy Plus, and iPlayboy. Here’s the thing: Playboy has international, multi-generational name recognition from porn. They have content available in 180 countries. It will be the only publicly traded adult entertainment (porn) company. But that is not where this company is going. It will help support them along the way. You can see every Playboy magazine through iPlayboy if you’re interested. NSFW links below: https://www.playboy.com/ https://www.playboytv.com/ https://www.playboyplus.com/ https://www.iplayboy.com/ Gambling - Some of you might recognize the Playboy brand from gambling trips to places like Las Vegas, Atlantic City, Cancun, London or Macau. They’ve been in the gambling biz for decades through their casinos, clubs, and licensed gaming products. They see the writing on the wall. COVID is accelerating the transition to digital, application based GAMBLING. That’s right. What we are doing on Robinhood with risky options is gambling, and the only reason regulators might give a shit anymore is because we are making too much money. There may be some restrictions put in place, but gambling from your phone on your couch is not going anywhere. More and more states are allowing things like Draftkings, poker, state ‘lottery” apps, hell - even political betting. Michigan and Virginia just ok’d gambling apps. They won’t be the last. This is all from your couch and any 18 year old with a cracked iphone can access it. Wouldn’t it be cool if Playboy was going to do something like that? They’re already working on it. As per CEO Ben Kohn who we will get to later, “...the company’s casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth.” Honestly, I stopped researching Scientific Games' sports betting segment when I saw the word ‘omni-channel’. That told me all I needed to know about it’s success. “Our SG Sports™ platform is an enhanced, omni-channel solution for online, self-service and retail fixed odds sports betting – from soccer to tennis, basketball, football, baseball, hockey, motor sports, racing and more.” https://www.scientificgames.com/ https://www.microgaming.co.uk/ “This latter segment has become increasingly enticing for Playboy, and it said last week that it is considering new tie-ups that could include gaming operators like PointsBet and 888Holdings.” https://calvinayre.com/2020/10/05/business/playboys-gaming-ops-could-get-a-boost-from-spac-purchase/ As per their SEC filing: “Significant consumer engagement and spend with Playboy-branded gaming properties around the world, including with leading partners such as Microgaming, Scientific Games, and Caesar’s Entertainment, steers our investment in digital gaming, sports betting and other digital offerings to further support our commercial strategy to expand consumer spend with minimal marginal cost, and gain consumer data to inform go-to-market plans across categories.” https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tMDAA1 They are expanding into more areas of gaming/gambling, working with international players in the digital gaming/gambling arena, and a Playboy sportsbook is on the horizon. https://www.playboy.com/read/the-pleasure-of-playing-with-yourself-mobile-gaming-in-the-covid-era Cannabis - If you’ve ever read through a Playboy magazine, you know they’ve had a positive relationship with cannabis for many years. As of September 2020, Playboy has made a major shift into the cannabis space. Too good to be true you say? Check their website. Playboy currently sells a range of CBD products. This is a good sign. Federal hemp products, which these most likely are, can be mailed across state lines and most importantly for a company like Playboy, can operate through a traditional banking institution. CBD products are usually the first step towards the cannabis space for large companies. Playboy didn’t make these products themselves meaning they are working with a processor in the cannabis industry. Another good sign for future expansion. What else do they have for sale? Pipes, grinders, ashtrays, rolling trays, joint holders. Hmm. Ok. So it looks like they want to sell some shit. They probably don’t have an active interest in cannabis right? Think again: https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/09/24/playboy-gets-serious-about-cannabis-law-reform-advocacy-with-new-partnership-grants/?sh=62f044a65cea “Taking yet another step into the cannabis space, Playboy will be announcing later on Thursday (September, 2020) that it is launching a cannabis law reform and advocacy campaign in partnership with National Organization for the Reform of Marijuana Laws (NORML), Last Prisoner Project, Marijuana Policy Project, the Veterans Cannabis Project, and the Eaze Momentum Program.” “According to information procured exclusively, the three-pronged campaign will focus on calling for federal legalization. The program also includes the creation of a mentorship plan, through which the Playboy Foundation will support entrepreneurs from groups that are underrepresented in the industry.” Remember that CEO Kohn from earlier? He wrote this recently: https://medium.com/naked-open-letters-from-playboy/congress-must-pass-the-more-act-c867c35239ae Seems like he really wants weed to be legal? Hmm wonder why? The writing's on the wall my friends. Playboy wants into the cannabis industry, they are making steps towards this end, and we have favorable conditions for legislative progress. Don’t think branding your own cannabis line is profitable or worthwhile? Tell me why these 41 celebrity millionaires and billionaires are dummies. I’ll wait. https://www.celebstoner.com/news/celebstoner-news/2019/07/12/top-celebrity-cannabis-brands/ Confirmation: I hear you. “This all seems pretty speculative. It would be wildly profitable if they pull this shift off. But how do we really know?” Watch this whole video: https://finance.yahoo.com/video/playboy-ceo-telling-story-female-154907068.html Man - this interview just gets my juices flowing. And highlights one of my favorite reasons for this play. They have so many different business avenues from which a catalyst could appear. I think paying attention, holding shares, and options on these staggered announcements over the next year is the way I am going to go about it. "There's definitely been a shift to direct-to-consumer," he (Kohn) said. "About 50 percent of our revenue today is direct-to-consumer, and that will continue to grow going forward.” “Kohn touted Playboy's portfolio of both digital and consumer products, with casino-style gaming, in particular, serving a crucial role under the company's new business model. Playboy also has its sights on the emerging cannabis market, from CBD products to marijuana products geared toward sexual health and pleasure.” "If THC does become legal in the United States, we have developed certain strains to enhance your sex life that we will launch," Kohn said. https://cheddar.com/media/playboy-goes-public-health-gaming-lifestyle-focus Oh? The CEO actually said it? Ok then. “We have developed certain strains…” They’re already working with growers on strains and genetics? Ok. There are several legal cannabis markets for those products right now, international and stateside. I expect Playboy licensed hemp and THC pre-rolls by EOY. Something like this: https://www.etsy.com/listing/842996758/10-playboy-pre-roll-tubes-limited?ga_order=most_relevant&ga_search_type=all&ga_view_type=gallery&ga_search_query=pre+roll+playboy&ref=sr_gallery-1-2&organic_search_click=1 Maintaining cannabis operations can be costly and a regulatory headache. Playboy’s licensing strategy allows them to pick successful, established partners and sidestep traditional barriers to entry. You know what I like about these new markets? They’re expanding. Worldwide. And they are going to be a bigger deal than they already are with or without Playboy. Who thinks weed and gambling are going away? Too many people like that stuff. These are easy markets. And Playboy is early enough to carve out their spot in each. Fuck it, read this too: https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimosman/2020/10/20/playboy-could-be-the-king-of-spacs-here-are-three-picks/?sh=2e13dcaa3e05 Numbers: You want numbers? I got numbers. As per the company’s most recent SEC filing: “For the year ended December 31, 2019, and the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s historical consolidated revenue was $78.1 million and $101.3 million, respectively, historical consolidated net income (loss) was $(23.6) million and $(4.8) million, respectively, and Adjusted EBITDA was $13.1 million and $21.8 million, respectively.” “In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Licensing segment contributed $44.2 million in revenue and $31.1 million in net income.” “In the ninth months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Direct-to-Consumer segment contributed $40.2 million in revenue and net income of $0.1 million.” “In the nine months ended September 30, 2020, Playboy’s Digital Subscriptions and Content segment contributed $15.4 million in revenue and net income of $7.4 million.” They are profitable across all three of their current business segments. “Playboy’s return to the public markets presents a transformed, streamlined and high-growth business. The Company has over $400 million in cash flows contracted through 2029, sexual wellness products available for sale online and in over 10,000 major retail stores in the US, and a growing variety of clothing and branded lifestyle and digital gaming products.” https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF Growth: Playboy has massive growth in China and massive growth potential in India. “In China, where Playboy has spent more than 25 years building its business, our licensees have an enormous footprint of nearly 2,500 brick and mortar stores and 1,000 ecommerce stores selling high quality, Playboy-branded men’s casual wear, shoes/footwear, sleepwear, swimwear, formal suits, leather & non-leather goods, sweaters, active wear, and accessories. We have achieved significant growth in China licensing revenues over the past several years in partnership with strong licensees and high-quality manufacturers, and we are planning for increased growth through updates to our men’s fashion lines and expansion into adjacent categories in men’s skincare and grooming, sexual wellness, and women’s fashion, a category where recent launches have been well received.” The men’s market in China is about the same size as the entire population of the United States and European Union combined. Playboy is a leading brand in this market. They are expanding into the women’s market too. Did you know CBD toothpaste is huge in China? China loves CBD products and has hemp fields that dwarf those in the US. If Playboy expands their CBD line China it will be huge. Did you know the gambling money in Macau absolutely puts Las Vegas to shame? Technically, it's illegal on the mainland, but in reality, there is a lot of gambling going on in China. https://www.forbes.com/sites/javierhasse/2020/10/19/magic-johnson-and-uncle-buds-cbd-brand-enter-china-via-tmall-partnership/?sh=271776ca411e “In India, Playboy today has a presence through select apparel licensees and hospitality establishments. Consumer research suggests significant growth opportunities in the territory with Playboy’s brand and categories of focus.” “Playboy Enterprises has announced the expansion of its global consumer products business into India as part of a partnership with Jay Jay Iconic Brands, a leading fashion and lifestyle Company in India.” “The Indian market today is dominated by consumers under the age of 35, who represent more than 65 percent of the country’s total population and are driving India’s significant online shopping growth. The Playboy brand’s core values of playfulness and exploration resonate strongly with the expressed desires of today’s younger millennial consumers. For us, Playboy was the perfect fit.” “The Playboy international portfolio has been flourishing for more than 25 years in several South Asian markets such as China and Japan. In particular, it has strategically targeted the millennial and gen-Z audiences across categories such as apparel, footwear, home textiles, eyewear and watches.” https://www.licenseglobal.com/industry-news/playboy-expands-global-footprint-india It looks like they gave COVID the heisman in terms of net damage sustained: “Although Playboy has not suffered any material adverse consequences to date from the COVID-19 pandemic, the business has been impacted both negatively and positively. The remote working and stay-at-home orders resulted in the closure of the London Playboy Club and retail stores of Playboy’s licensees, decreasing licensing revenues in the second quarter, as well as causing supply chain disruption and less efficient product development thereby slowing the launch of new products. However, these negative impacts were offset by an increase in Yandy’s direct-to-consumer sales, which have benefited in part from overall increases in online retail sales so far during the pandemic.” Looks like the positives are long term (Yandy acquisition) and the negatives are temporary (stay-at-home orders). https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921006093/tm213766-1_defa14a.htm This speaks to their ability to maintain a financially solvent company throughout the transition phase to the aforementioned areas. They’d say some fancy shit like “expanded business model to encompass four key revenue streams: Sexual Wellness, Style & Apparel, Gaming & Lifestyle, and Beauty & Grooming.” I hear “we’re just biding our time with these trinkets until those dollar dollar bill y’all markets are fully up and running.” But the truth is these existing revenue streams are profitable, scalable, and rapidly expanding Playboy’s e-commerce segment around the world. "Even in the face of COVID this year, we've been able to grow EBITDA over 100 percent and revenue over 68 percent, and I expect that to accelerate going into 2021," he said. “Playboy is accelerating its growth in company-owned and branded consumer products in attractive and expanding markets in which it has a proven history of brand affinity and consumer spend.” Also in the SEC filing, the Time Frame: “As we detailed in the definitive proxy statement, the SPAC stockholder meeting to vote on the transaction has been set for February 9th, and, subject to stockholder approval and satisfaction of the other closing conditions, we expect to complete the merger and begin trading on NASDAQ under ticker PLBY shortly thereafter,” concluded Kohn. The Players: Suhail “The Whale” Rizvi (HMFIC), Ben “The Bridge” Kohn (CEO), “lil” Suying Liu & “Big” Dong Liu (Young-gun China gang). I encourage you to look these folks up. The real OG here is Suhail Rizvi. He’s from India originally and Chairman of the Board for the new PLBY company. He was an early investor in Twitter, Square, Facebook and others. His firm, Rizvi Traverse, currently invests in Instacart, Pinterest, Snapchat, Playboy, and SpaceX. Maybe you’ve heard of them. “Rizvi, who owns a sprawling three-home compound in Greenwich, Connecticut, and a 1.65-acre estate in Palm Beach, Florida, near Bill Gates and Michael Bloomberg, moved to Iowa Falls when he was five. His father was a professor of psychology at Iowa. Along with his older brother Ashraf, a hedge fund manager, Rizvi graduated from Wharton business school.” “Suhail Rizvi: the 47-year-old 'unsocial' social media baron: When Twitter goes public in the coming weeks (2013), one of the biggest winners will be a 47-year-old financier who guards his secrecy so zealously that he employs a person to take down his Wikipedia entry and scrub his photos from the internet. In IPO, Twitter seeks to be 'anti-FB'” “Prince Alwaleed bin Talal of Saudi Arabia looks like a big Twitter winner. So do the moneyed clients of Jamie Dimon. But as you’ve-got-to-be-joking wealth washed over Twitter on Thursday — a company that didn’t exist eight years ago was worth $31.7 billion after its first day on the stock market — the non-boldface name of the moment is Suhail R. Rizvi. Mr. Rizvi, 47, runs a private investment company that is the largest outside investor in Twitter with a 15.6 percent stake worth $3.8 billion at the end of trading on Thursday (November, 2013). Using a web of connections in the tech industry and in finance, as well as a hearty dose of good timing, he brought many prominent names in at the ground floor, including the Saudi prince and some of JPMorgan’s wealthiest clients.” https://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/08/technology/at-twitter-working-behind-the-scenes-toward-a-billion-dollar-payday.html Y’all like that Arab money? How about a dude that can call up Saudi Princes and convince them to spend? Funniest shit about I read about him: “Rizvi was able to buy only $100 million in Facebook shortly before its IPO, thus limiting his returns, according to people with knowledge of the matter.” Poor guy :( He should be fine with the 16 million PLBY shares he's going to have though :) Shuhail also has experience in the entertainment industry. He’s invested in companies like SESAC, ICM, and Summit Entertainment. He’s got Hollywood connections to blast this stuff post-merger. And he’s at least partially responsible for that whole Twilight thing. I’m team Edward btw. I really like what Suhail has done so far. He’s lurked in the shadows while Kohn is consolidating the company, trimming the fat, making Playboy profitable, and aiming the ship at modern growing markets. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-twitter-ipo-rizvi-insight/insight-little-known-hollywood-investor-poised-to-score-with-twitter-ipo-idUSBRE9920VW20131003 Ben “The Bridge” Kohn is an interesting guy. He’s the connection between Rizvi Traverse and Playboy. He’s both CEO of Playboy and was previously Managing Partner at Rizvi Traverse. Ben seems to be the voice of the Playboy-Rizvi partnership, which makes sense with Suhail’s privacy concerns. Kohn said this: “Today is a very big day for all of us at Playboy and for all our partners globally. I stepped into the CEO role at Playboy in 2017 because I saw the biggest opportunity of my career. Playboy is a brand and platform that could not be replicated today. It has massive global reach, with more than $3B of global consumer spend and products sold in over 180 countries. Our mission – to create a culture where all people can pursue pleasure – is rooted in our 67-year history and creates a clear focus for our business and role we play in people’s lives, providing them with the products, services and experiences that create a lifestyle of pleasure. We are taking this step into the public markets because the committed capital will enable us to accelerate our product development and go-to-market strategies and to more rapidly build our direct to consumer capabilities,” said Ben Kohn, CEO of Playboy. “Playboy today is a highly profitable commerce business with a total addressable market projected in the trillions of dollars,” Mr. Kohn continued, “We are actively selling into the Sexual Wellness consumer category, projected to be approximately $400 billion in size by 2024, where our recently launched intimacy products have rolled out to more than 10,000 stores at major US retailers in the United States. Combined with our owned & operated ecommerce Sexual Wellness initiatives, the category will contribute more than 40% of our revenue this year. In our Apparel and Beauty categories, our collaborations with high-end fashion brands including Missguided and PacSun are projected to achieve over $50M in retail sales across the US and UK this year, our leading men’s apparel lines in China expanded to nearly 2500 brick and mortar stores and almost 1000 digital stores, and our new men’s and women’s fragrance line recently launched in Europe. In Gaming, our casino-style digital gaming products with Scientific Games and Microgaming continue to see significant global growth. Our product strategy is informed by years of consumer data as we actively expand from a purely licensing model into owning and operating key high-growth product lines focused on driving profitability and consumer lifetime value. We are thrilled about the future of Playboy. Our foundation has been set to drive further growth and margin, and with the committed capital from this transaction and our more than $180M in NOLs, we will take advantage of the opportunity in front of us, building to our goal of $100M of adjusted EBITDA in 2025.” https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company Also, according to their Form 4s, “Big” Dong Liu and “lil” Suying Liu just loaded up with shares last week. These guys are brothers and seem like the Chinese market connection. They are only 32 & 35 years old. I don’t even know what that means, but it's provocative. https://www.secform4.com/insider-trading/1832415.htm https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mountain-crest-acquisition-corp-ii-002600994.html Y’all like that China money? “Mr. Liu has been the Chief Financial Officer of Dongguan Zhishang Photoelectric Technology Co., Ltd., a regional designer, manufacturer and distributor of LED lights serving commercial customers throughout Southern China since November 2016, at which time he led a syndicate of investments into the firm. Mr. Liu has since overseen the financials of Dongguan Zhishang as well as provided strategic guidance to its board of directors, advising on operational efficiency and cash flow performance. From March 2010 to October 2016, Mr. Liu was the Head of Finance at Feidiao Electrical Group Co., Ltd., a leading Chinese manufacturer of electrical outlets headquartered in Shanghai and with businesses in the greater China region as well as Europe.” Dr. Suying Liu, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Mountain Crest Acquisition Corp., commented, “Playboy is a unique and compelling investment opportunity, with one of the world’s largest and most recognized brands, its proven consumer affinity and spend, and its enormous future growth potential in its four product segments and new and existing geographic regions. I am thrilled to be partnering with Ben and his exceptional team to bring his vision to fruition.” https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20201001005404/en/Playboy-to-Become-a-Public-Company These guys are good. They have a proven track record of success across multiple industries. Connections and money run deep with all of these guys. I don’t think they’re in the game to lose. I was going to write a couple more paragraphs about why you should have a look at this but really the best thing you can do is read this SEC filing from a couple days ago. It explains the situation in far better detail. Specifically, look to page 137 and read through their strategy. Also, look at their ownership percentages and compensation plans including the stock options and their prices. The financials look great, revenue is up 90% Q3, and it looks like a bright future. https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1803914/000110465921005986/tm2034213-12_defm14a.htm#tSHCF I’m hesitant to attach this because his position seems short term, but I’m going to with a warning because he does hit on some good points (two are below his link) and he’s got a sizable position in this thing (500k+ on margin, I think). I don’t know this guy but he did look at the same publicly available info and make roughly the same prediction, albeit without the in depth gambling or cannabis mention. You can also search reddit for ‘MCAC’ and very few relevant results come up and none of them even come close to really looking at this thing. https://docs.google.com/document/d/1gOvAd6lebs452hFlWWbxVjQ3VMsjGBkbJeXRwDwIJfM/edit?usp=sharing “Also, before you people start making claims that Playboy is a “boomer” company, STOP RIGHT THERE. This is not a good argument. Simply put. The only thing that matters is Playboy’s name recognition, not their archaic business model which doesn’t even exist anymore as they have completely repurposed their business.” “Imagine not buying $MCAC at a 400M valuation lol. Streetwear department is worth 1B alone imo.” Considering the ridiculous Chinese growth as a lifestyle brand, he’s not wrong. Current Cultural Significance and Meme Value: A year ago I wouldn’t have included this section but the events from the last several weeks (even going back to tsla) have proven that a company’s ability to meme and/or gain social network popularity can have an effect. Tik-tok, Snapchat, Twitch, Reddit, Youtube, Facebook, Twitter. They all have Playboy stuff on them. Kids in middle and highschool know what Playboy is but will likely never see or touch one of the magazines in person. They’ll have a Playboy hoodie though. Crazy huh? A lot like GME, PLBY would hugely benefit from meme-value stock interest to drive engagement towards their new business model while also building strategic coffers. This interest may not directly and/or significantly move the stock price but can generate significant interest from larger players who will. Bull Case: The year is 2025. Playboy is now the world leader pleasure brand. They began by offering Playboy licensed gaming products, including gambling products, direct to consumers through existing names. By 2022, demand has skyrocketed and Playboy has designed and released their own gambling platforms. In 2025, they are also a leading cannabis brand in the United States and Canada with proprietary strains and products geared towards sexual wellness. Cannabis was legalized in the US in 2023 when President Biden got glaucoma but had success with cannabis treatment. He personally pushes for cannabis legalization as he steps out of office after his first term. Playboy has also grown their brand in China and India to multi-billion per year markets. The stock goes up from 11ish to 100ish and everyone makes big gains buying somewhere along the way. Bear Case: The United States does a complete 180 on marijuana and gambling. President Biden overdoses on marijuana in the Lincoln bedroom when his FDs go tits up and he loses a ton of money in his sports book app after the Fighting Blue Hens narrowly lose the National Championship to Bama. Playboy is unable to expand their cannabis and gambling brands but still does well with their worldwide lifestyle brand. They gain and lose some interest in China and India but the markets are too large to ignore them completely. The stock goes up from 11ish to 13ish and everyone makes 15-20% gains. TL;DR: Successful technology/e-commerce investment firm took over Playboy to turn it into a porn, online gambling/gaming, sports book, cannabis company, worldwide lifestyle brand that promotes sexual wellness, vetern access, women-ownership, minority-ownership, and “pleasure for all”. Does a successful online team reinventing an antiquated physical copy giant sound familiar? No options yet, shares only for now. $11.38 per share at time of writing. My guess? $20 by the end of February. $50 by EOY. This is not financial advice. I am not qualified to give financial advice. I’m just sayin’ I would personally use a Playboy sports book app while smoking a Playboy strain specific joint and it would be cool if they did that. Do your own research. You’d probably want to start here: WARNING - POTENTIALLY NSFW - SEXY MODELS AHEAD - no actual nudity though https://s26.q4cdn.com/895475556/files/doc_presentations/Playboy-Craig-Hallum-Conference-Investor-Presentation-11_17_20-compressed.pdf Or here: https://www.mcacquisition.com/investor-relations/default.aspx Jimmy Chill: “Get into any SPAC at $10 or $11 and you are going to make money.” STL;DR: Buy MCAC. MCAC > PLBY couple weeks. Rocketship. Moon. Position: 5000 shares. I will buy short, medium, and long-dated calls once available.
Full credit to u/AlbibiG. The original post was posted on February 8th 2021. Enjoy. -
Introduction “FuboTV ($FUBO) is an American streaming television service that focuses primarily on channels that distribute live sports, including NFL, MLB, NBA, NHL, MLS and international soccer, plus news, network television series and movies. Launched on January 1, 2015 as a soccer streaming service, FuboTV changed to an all-sports service in 2017 and then to a virtual multichannel video programming distributor (vMVPD) model. As a vMVPD, FuboTV still calls itself sports-first but its expanded channel lineup targets cord cutters, offering a selection of major cable channels and OTT-originated features that can be streamed through smart TVs, mobile and tablets and the web. The service is available in the United States, Canada and Spain as of 2018." From their home page: They are the only competitors in their space of digital sports broadcasting, offer 4K streaming and upscaling of live sports, cloud DVR capability ranging from 250 or 1000 hours on standard plans, and is available on Roku, Apple TV, Amazon Fire TV, Chromecast, Samsung Smart TVs, Xbox One, Android TV, Android Smart TVs, and Android/iOS smartphones and tablets, with plans ranging from $24.99/month to $79.99/month (not including add-ons). They have also recently acquired one company and have made plans to acquire another to allow for in-house sports betting. They have stated in a press release that they plan to release a sportsbook before the end of the year. This will push them into a broader spectrum outside of only TV and sports streaming, and into the sports betting sector along with DraftKings ($DKNG), FanDuel ($PDYPY), and Penn National Gaming ($PENN). Plans and Add-ons FuboTV offers three standardized plans as of February 8, 2021: the Family plan is priced at $64.99/month (normally $75.97/month), Elite at $79.99/month (normally $100.95/month), and Latino Quarterly at $24.99/month, along with offering additional add-ons. Each plan offers a range of channels, cloud DVR capabilities (which allows fast-forwarding through commercials), and casting to multiple devices simultaneously. Only the Elite plan does not offer a 7-day free trial (Channels page). The Family plan includes 117 channels (mostly news and entertainment with roughly 40 that offer sports, including ESPN), up to 250 hours of DVR space, and casting to 3 devices at once. The quarterly prepaid includes a free upgrade to 1000 hours of DVR space and 5 casting devices at home with 3 on the go (Channels page). The Elite plan includes 164 channels (includes an additional “47 entertainment channels”), up to 1000 hours of DVR space, and casting to 5 devices at home with 3 on the go. This plan does not offer a quarterly prepaid (Channels page). The Latino Quarterly plan includes 250 hours of DVR space and can be streamed on up to 3 devices at once, but only has 32 channels. This plan needs to be prepaid every 3 months for a total charge of $74.97 and does not offer a monthly service (Channels page). Upgrades include additional DVR space--1000 hours for an additional $6.99/month for the Family and Latino Quarterly--and increased device casting--an additional 2 devices at home with 3 on the go for another $9.99/month for the Family and Latino Quarterly plans. You can also add a variety of channels and sports packages (the Latino Quarterly has fewer channel add-ons compared to the Family and Elite plans, which both have the same channel varieties). Sports Plus with NFL RedZone is an additional $10.99/month, but includes all professional and college sports broadcasting services for football, basketball, baseball, hockey, tennis, fighting, etc. (Channels page). Fubo has recently removed its former Standard plan, which included only 65 channels, up to 2 casting devices, and only 30 hours of DVR support for $60/month. Financials and Growth Fubo has yet to file an annual report as they have gone public in October of 2020, but they have filed a 10-Q for Q3 2020. All numbers in thousands. Assets- Between December 31, 2019 and September of 2020, assets have increased from $368,225 to $799,313 (a 117% increase) . Total current assets increased from $17,973 to $58,016, but accounts receivable decreased from $8,904 to $6,975--this may be attributed to the increase in prepaid subscriptions which increased from $1,445 to $12,177 which shows strong customer satisfaction and retention. Liabilities- Liabilities have increased from $145,049 to $290,376 (a 100% increase). The largest contributors to their liabilities are “Due to related parties” increasing from $665 to $85,847, “Warrant liabilities” increasing from $24 to $28,085, and “Accounts payable” from $36,373 to $61,679. Long-term borrowings have decreased from $43,982 to $25,905. Revenues- Subscription revenues increased by $53,433, totaling $92,945 for the year. Total revenues including advertisements and licensing have increased by $61,202, totaling $112,669 for the year and an increase of 47% YOY. Q4 revenue is estimated to be between $94,000 and $98,000 which would be a *77-84% *increase YOY. Expenses- Subscriber related expenses total $114,315 for the year. Total expenses have totaled $500,249 for the year. Subscribers- Ended Q3 with 455,000 paid subscribers, a YOY increase of 58%, and plans to end 2020 with over 545,000, an increase of 72% YOY. Competition Its closest competitors are Hulu + Live TV (owned by Disney ($DIS)), YouTube TV (owned by Alphabet ($GOOG)), and Sling TV (owned by Dish Network ($DISH)). Hulu + Live TV
Includes league networks
50 hours of free DVR (200 hours for $9.99/month)
More than 74 channels
Unskippable ads on DVR without upgrade to 200 hours
2 streams at a time
$64.99/month
Can add ESPN+ and Disney+ for an additional $7/month
YouTube TV
Includes league networks
Unlimited DVR storage
More than 85 channels plus YouTube Red Originals
3 streams at a time
Sports Plus package for an additional $10.99/month
NBA LeaguePass for an additional $40/month or $119.99 annually
Starting at $64.99/month
Sling TV Blue
Includes league networks
DVR up to 50 hours (200 hours for $5/month)
More than 45 channels
3 streams at a time
Sports Extra package for an additional $11/month
Starting $35/month
Can be combined with Sling TV Orange for a total of $50/month
Sling TV Orange
Includes league networks
DVR up to 50 hours (200 hours for $5/month)
More than 30 channels
1 stream at a time
Sports Extra package for an additional $11/month
Starting at $35/month
Can be combined with Sling TV Blue for a total of $50/month
Merger with FaceBank for $100 million revolving credit
Analysts and Estimates Average analyst ratings put Fubo at a Buy to Strong Buy rating with an average price target of $45.50 with a high of $60 and a low of $30. EPS estimates are estimated to be -5.23 for 2020 and -1.64 for 2021. Currently has a short float of about 75%, but the short volume has been holding at roughly 15-20% over the last month and has drastically declined from its October short volume of over 50%. Originally valued at $700 million less than a year ago, a current valuation of $3.19 billion is respectable for this company and is on par for its current performance. Risks
Marketing fails and Fubo is never known as a household name, so consumers stick with other more known providers
Their sportsbook fails and becomes dead weight and wasted money
Subscriber count and streaming drops as quarantine lifts, reducing revenues while maintaining expenses
Consumers opt for cheaper options
People paying for the sports package cancel when the season is over, creating a boom and bust cycle if not managed correctly
Final Thoughts / TL;DR With its drastic growth over the last year (400% in the last 4 months), support from FaceBank and well-known investors, and plans to join the sports betting sector, FuboTV has potential to become a household name and grow well beyond its current valuation by combining both sports broadcasting and online sports betting into one convenient place. Although unlikely to overthrow any of the current forces, it can become the best live sports broadcaster that people can turn to when they cut cable but want to keep live sports. It has many hurdles to overcome (creating their sportsbook, better marketing, increasing subscriber count, etc.) before it is any real competition to its already established competition. At a $3.19 billion market cap and very high (75%) short interest, it will be very difficult to realize consistent growth, but it is on par for a company with almost $100 million in revenue. My Position 25 shares at $47.30 Edit: edited final thoughts/TL;DR Please provide feedback! First time actually researching and compiling information for a company and not just reading about them on here. Also, please ask questions to clear up any confusion; it was kinda hard to put everything together neatly, so I might have accidentally left stuff out or oveunder explained some things.
Jan/12/2021 news: __ Gas prices could rise: ֏ vs $ __ Jailed for taking Azeri bribe __ How much will AM-AZ railway cost? __ COVID strain, vaccine, stats __ POW & borders __ Childbirth subsidy __ Seismic resistance __ IRS to monitor casinos __ Environmentalists to have voice __ Yezidi theater __ more
Your 11-minute Tuesday report in 2562 words.
gas prices could rise due to currency fluctuations
Russian gas price (at the border) had increased from $150 to $165 per 1000m3 in 2019. Although the Russian currency Ruble was devaluing against the Dollar, Armenia was/is paying for gas with Dollars. Since 2019, the Pashinyan administration has been trying to convince Russia to implement a different gas payment mechanism within the EAEU trade bloc. Making payments in Rubles instead of Dollars was one of the priorities: "We are constantly talking about high dollarization within the EAEU, but we still pay for Russian gas in dollars. Our proposal was that it would be more correct if we paid for gas in rubles, because I think it is more logical, also within the EAEU," said Pashinyan in early 2020. This idea was also shared by Vladimir Putin's personal adviser back in October 2018. It appears the EAEU has been working towards this goal lately. But meanwhile, Armenia has to pay for Russian gas in Dollars. With Armenian Dram devaluing against the Dollar, the pricing for consumers will likely be revised. Consumers pay 139 Drams per cubic meter. This was calculated in 2020 when $1 was 480 Drams. Today $1 = 520 Drams. Large consumers pay in Dollars and have their rates adjusted periodically, while small consumers (general public) pays in Drams. Armenia imports 2.2 billion m3 gas from Russia annually, at the price of $165 per 1000m3. 0.7 billion of it is consumed by the general public. Dram was devalued by 6.6% since November. This could prompt the internal gas company to raise the prices, including for the general public. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039886.html http://www.armbanks.am/en/2020/04/07/128024/ https://neftegaz.ru/en/news/energy/406887-armenia-should-pay-for-russian-gas-in-rubles/
Public Council meets drone and robotics industry
The Public Council (linked to PM's office) held a meeting with engineers from the drone, robotics, AI, and nano-tech industries. They discussed ways to help the state to develop the military-industrial complex, drone production, aviation, and to bring their quality to international standards. https://factor.am/327477.html
former PACE MP sentenced to 4 years for taking bribes from Azerbaijan
An Italian court has concluded that Italian PACE representative Luca Volonte, who is the former head of the European People's Party, took €2.4 million in bribes from the Aliyev regime in 2012-2013. The bribe was handed over by Azerbaijan's PACE delegation leader Suleymanov. The scheme was coordinated by an Azeri lobbying firm based in Brussels. In return, the MP gave Azerbaijan favors during PACE and Italian Parliament sessions. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039927.html Tags: #caviar
POWs and searches
The search crews in Artsakh discovered bodies of 10 soldiers and 1 civilian in Jabrayil, Hadrut, and Sgnakh regions. The civilian has already been identified by his relatives. The cause of death is being investigated. Many bodies under the possession of the Armenian side are yet to be identified, while more bodies will likely be found during daily searches for the foreseeable future. Overall, 575 calls have been made by families who are looking for missing relatives, says the Russian humanitarian envoy in Artsakh. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039900.html , https://www.panarmenian.net/arm/news/289293/ Human Rights Ombudsman Tatoyan once again criticized Azerbaijan for intentionally politicizing and delaying the POW swap mission. "It is against international laws to file felony cases and arrest POWs because that's a form of a prohibited punishment. Azerbaijan is also hiding the true number of POWs." The Ombudsman has noted that Armenian residents in Tegh, Vorotan, and several other bordering villages have lost access to 2500 hectares of farming lands due to border changes. (some lands that were internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan were given to Azerbaijan after the war). https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039933.html , https://factor.am/327226.html , https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/204175
POW discussions: general prosecutor meets Azeri counterpart
Chief prosecutor Arthur Davtyan and his Azeri counterpart were invited to Russia. The three sides held a conversation about the establishment of future contacts in the field of international law and other related topics. Prosecutor Davtyan mentioned the importance of implementing the November 9th statement about the return of POWs, "which will serve as an assurance for implementation of other [trade unblocking] issues." https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039953.html , https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039972.html
how much will a new railway network cost?
Azeri economists believe it will cost around $430 million to build a railway network connecting Kars(TR)-Nakhijevan(AZ)-Meghri(AM)-Zangelan(AZ)-Baku(AZ). Overall, if you add Gyumri between Kars and Nakhijevan, it could cost about $434 million. Economists believe Armenia can use this network to connect with Russia via two directions: Gyumri-Nakhijevan-Meghri-Baku (southern trip), or Ijevan-Ghazakh-Baku (northern trip). https://www.panarmenian.net/arm/news/289313/
rumors & rebuttals: traitors are not selling Azeri juice in Armenia
Telegram channel Mediaport circulated rumors that "Azeri Sandora juice is being sold in Armenia". The misinformation was picked up by several outlets and caused confusion among the buyers. Fact-checkers contacted Sandora's local importer who said the producer is a Ukrainian company that sells its product in multiple post-Soviet republics, so they have one unified tag that contains information both in Armenian and Azeri languages. https://fip.am/14469
Pricing for 43 commonly-consumed items was examined by the consumer protection agency in Artsakh. 12 became more expensive, 5 cheaper, 26 remained the same. Onion +25%, cottege cheese +6%, milk +6%, gloves +5%, ..., pear -12%, rice -1%, eggs -1%, butter -1%. Several dairy product prices went up, and since Artsakh has dairy companies that own dominant market share, the consumer agency will launch an investigation to see if there was price-fixing. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039946.html
seismic resistance assessment for old buildings
A significant portion of Armenia's large apartment complex buildings were built half a century ago. They may not be seismically safe, considering Armenia's geolocation. After the 1988 earthquake, some buildings remain populated despite being deemed highly unsafe. Many other buildings have safety irregularities. It is necessary to assess the situation, so the Urban Development Committee has drafted a bill "Methodology for assessing the priority of increasing the seismic resistance of buildings and structures". https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039887.html
IRS will closely monitor gambling industry / RFID chips & servers
IRS press release: gambling facilities and online betting services will be more closely monitored. We worked with international experts to digitize the gambling industry and bring it on par with international standards. All gambling machines and platforms operating in Armenia will be connected to one server which will be connected to a monitoring Center. All betting and winning transactions will be recorded. The Center will also install RFID microchips in casinos to monitor the movement of chips, the chips purchased or won by players, in real-time. The government's Digital Council has approved the bill, which is yet to be discussed and voted in the Parliament. The goal is to be able to monitor the financial flows in this sector and to estimate the actual revenues. It will combat money laundering. (BHK skipping a Parliament session due to "COVID" in 3, 2, 1, ... /joke) https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039915.html
new "public council" will advise Nature Ministry
Nature Minister Romanos met several environmental organizations and environmentalists and discussed the creation of a new Council, which will advise him on nature protection issues, help draft bills and roadmaps, work with other environmental organizations and NGOs. The Council is accepting applications. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039896.html
large quantities of illegally-cut trees were busted
Context: An incident happened last week between parents of drafted soldiers and military officials at a military unit. The parents wanted assurances that their sons would be safe after being deployed on Artsakh borders. The parents wanted to know why Armenian soldiers are still being sent to Artsakh "despite the November 9th statement saying Armenians should withdraw from Artsakh." During the confrontation, an incident happened between a military official and a journalist. The official struck the camera and instructed it to be turned off. Several media outlets released a message condemning the officer for hindering the journalist's work. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039973.html
infrastructure upgrades
Four settlements in Kotayk province (Yeghvard, Nor Gegh, Aragel, Zovuni) have a newly renovated irrigation pipeline as part of a govt subsidy program. https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/204202
today in history
1932: First Yerevan tramway began operating in Yerevan 1951: The UN Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide was implemented. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039885.html
get your free colonoscopy today
The National Center for Oncology has purchased the latest generation tools and will perform a free and enjoyable colonoscopy for residents over the age of 45, for the next 6 months. The goal is to detect suspicious growths at an early stage. It's the third most common cancer among adults in the world. It has become more common in Armenia in the past decade. When detected early, it can be fully treated. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039911.html
... we lift some of the restrictions! "Aye, aye, Captain!" "I can't hear you!" "The rule that limits attendance to non-commercial gatherings to no more than 60 people has been removed. All other safety requirements remain in place," said a Healthcare official. "You can enter Armenia via air or land by presenting negative COVID test results that were taken within the past 3 days. If you don't, you will be tested at the airport and will need to self-isolate until the results arrive." https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039931.html
Armenia will soon import COVID vaccines
Healthcare Ministry: we are negotiating with multiple entities. The first batch of vaccines will arrive between late-January and mid-February. We are negotiating with producers whose vaccines have passed the necessary tests: Sputnik V, Pfizer, Moderna, and AstraZeneca. In the first phase, the vaccines will be given to the most vulnerable 10% of the population. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039921.html
Sputnik V vaccine has already been tested in Armenia
Healthcare Ministry: no complications were reported by the 15 patients, including Minister Torosyan. The often-discussed "skin redness" in the injection area has not been observed, either. The first injection gave a 91.4% efficiency. The second increased it to 94%. Even if the vaccine doesn't fully prevent the infection, it can save the patient's life by making the case mild (is that right??). https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039925.html
the new COVID strain: good news, bad news
Doctor Davit Melik-Nubaryan: the version of COVID that mutated in the UK will eventually reach Armenia. Preliminary data shows that those who have already been infected and gained immunity from the original COVID will be immune to this new strain. It is believed that the immunity will last 6-12 months for the majority. The good news is that the new strain isn't more deadly and doesn't result in heavier cases. The bad news is that it spreads a lot faster. The Healthcare system could be overloaded again. The vaccines against the original strain will likely work against the new one. Pharmaceutical companies may have to modify the vaccines, but it will only take weeks. Closing borders with the UK won't be helpful to prevent it. We may already have the new strain. We need to develop a new strategy from the ground up. Viruses mutate all the time. It's part of the evolution. Sometimes they cause more severe symptoms, sometimes lesser. From the evolutionary and survival standpoint, viruses want to cause less severe symptoms for the host so they can have a chance to spread wider. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039856.html
Armenian scientists will study the COVID strain
CDC chief Bakunts: Armenia will have the ability to study the genetic mutations of the coronavirus. Active work is underway to invest in research resources. Meanwhile, we can submit a virus sample to a WHO laboratory to conduct a study for us. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039962.html
families with newborn children receive mortgage subsidy
450 families have so far taken advantage of a government subsidy program that helps with purchasing apartments. ֏526 million will be paid as part of this 2020-2023 program. It is part of a recent initiative to boost the birthrate. Two other aid programs went into effect in mid-2020. Provincial families received a downpayment subsidy equalling 5% of the total price. Another one subsidizes insurance payments. The same family can apply for all three programs, and there is no age limit for parents. https://factor.am/327385.html
diaspora-government cooperation expands: iGorts
iGorts is a program that recently recruited 48 highly skilled diasporan Armenians to visit Armenia and work at 19 various government agencies. Three more volunteers have arrived today to begin their work: Shila Palyan from Canada, Zaven Ayvazyan from Russia, and Anahit Mikaelyan from Cyprus. https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/204211
Yerevan to install 32 more elevators in apartment complexes
Arabkir district is the next recipient. Hundreds of units were installed in 2020. They replace the decades-old elevators that have become dangerous and poopy. The new elevators come equipped with running water and flush so you can drain your crap /s. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039954.html
have you been buying stuff right and left lately?
...because trade turnover increased by +34%, and the number of printed receipts by +7%, during this year's New Year's holidays. ֏91 billion was spent between December 29-31, which is ֏23 billion more. https://www.armtimes.com/hy/article/204195
would your majesty be pleased to take a salt bath?
Nerqin Getashen will have a halotherapy "salt bath" center to help alleviate certain conditions. It's the first in Gegharquniq province. There will also be rooms for aromatherapy (oils), ogyxenotherapy (oxygen cocktails), and massage. The owner claims it helps boost immunity and alleviates breathing, allergy, and insomnia issues (take the claim with a bath of salt). https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039974.html
first Yezidi theater to open in Armenia
"шəp' y əBин" or "war and love" will be the first performance in a newly opened Yezidi theater in Ejmiatsin. It's part of a «Եզդիների կողքին» cultural initiative. The crew had planned a major performance about Yezidi national legend but the 44-day war began and some were drafted. The crew ended up performing the "шəp' y əBин" during the war. It's about the importance of Yezidis in Armenia, and their love for the country. The January 17th performance will be dedicated to Yezidis who died fighting. The performers aren't professional actors but they received acting training on-the-fly. "It seems to work because their enthusiasm is great. A very good team has been formed," said the producer. https://armenpress.am/arm/news/1039941.html
Aram Khachaturian House-Museum will resume "Musical Thursdays"
Netherlands college will donate large quantities of school supplies
Several thousands of desks, chairs, furniture pieces, computers, lockers, etc. are being loaded in containers to be shipped to Armenia. The Hermann Wesselink college is renovating its building with new items so they decided to donate the old stuff to Armenian kids. This will be enough to equip 15 provincial schools. https://factor.am/327135.html
I still find myself asking this question often in my head because I've never dated anyone in person. It was just stuff online at most which lasted 2 weeks at most years ago. Here's a bit of background on myself. I'm currently attending a post secondary education to become a software developer, I still live with my family despite being 26 year old man (27 later this year in April), I work on my own programming projects in my spare time along with playing video games and watching various cartoons, and I undeniably have some depraved fetishes like furry and loli. I have no idea how to meet other women besides work which is for the most part the only time I go outside other than when I go to the convenience store or to the donut shop and asking people out at work really seems like a bad idea so thats a no go. School would be an option if it weren't for the fact that so far 95% of the classmates in my first semester were male. So the first problem is just finding a girl I like even and that would be in a socially acceptable circumstance to even ask out on a date. Second problem is say I got a date, at what point do I reveal the depraved fetishes and can I expect to be put on the sex offenders list for doing so? Call me paranoid but considering loli is illegal here in Canada and people can be exceptionally shitty, laying myself bare so to speak where more than just my feelings could be hurt really worries me in the sense it could affect my entire life in both the social and financial manner. Probably the pessimistic side of me talking but that part feels like a huge gamble to me. tl;dr version 1) Where do I meet a girl I like? 2) When do I reveal my depraved fetishes to my date when I get one and what realistically to you is the worst case scenario? 3) What else should I consider that I haven't mentioned at all when it comes to dating? I'm pretty clueless so any tips would be appreciated.
Pakistan: When Agents Ruled – a glimpse of Spying, Espionage and Security Breaches
The London Post
19-24 minutes By Dr. Shahid Qureshi: – A young journalist in London asked me "Do you know someone who is working against the national interests of Pakistan?". That was an interesting question from a typical young Pakistani who is loyal and patriotic to the country. I was nearly heartbroken to tell him that there is more and almost everyone who matters in Pakistan is in some way is selling Pakistan cheap to the enemies. Normally people think about spies and agents like James Bond 007 who goes on a mission and meet beautiful girls and come back successful. Well, that is one part of spying and espionage. The way Pakistani agents serving their foreign masters is a bit subtle and sinister. I have discussed some in the upcoming book and exposed them in the articles.People trust journalists more than the spies and agency operatives as they don’t have any loyalties to the sources but journalists do. I have seen many journalists threatened with imprisonment by the state but they did not disclose their sources following the journalistic code of ethics. Most civilized countries have a declassifying system for the official government records and obviously, those who have signed the official secrets act of the country don’t write books or come on TV channels to discuss their missions and details? Only in Pakistan you can do and get away with it.For example, Lt. General Asad Durrani was assigned a task by the President of Pakistan Ghulam Ishaq Khan to counter Benazir Bhutto who was compromised on Pakistan’s nuclear program and Indian affairs. The president ordered to dislodge her without creating too many currents keeping in view Pakistan’s ground realities. It was his oath to keep that secret as ISI chief but he behaved worst than an informant. He broke his oath, violated the official secrets act of Pakistan by giving an affidavit to FIA director Rehman Malik. The only attraction for him probably was to get posting as an ambassador. This is known as the Asghar Khan case currently hanging in the supreme court of Pakistan and no government is sincere enough to put an end to it by submitting the response and call the parties involved. A few years ago, I was sitting with General Mike Jackson former British Army Chief, I asked him ‘why did you not take control of Sarajevo airport in Bosnia and Herzegovina’? He replied to me very quietly ‘read my book’. Apparently, the American General asked him to take control of the airport and he reportedly refused by saying: ‘I don’t want to start 3rd World War. Now it is the duty of the security establishment to provide training to its officials as to how to live a retired life without compromising national security and if at all they need to write a book, the transcript must be cleared by the premier agency.Let’s imagine a Pakistani agent is tasked to delay the installation of an electricity project to destroy the whole industry and infrastructure of the country. I wrote in 2006, that this load-shedding of electricity in Pakistan is linked with the security of the country. People acknowledge the risk assessment but they could not do anything as the people who were doing all this were sitting in high positions. The dramatic escape of the longest-serving Indus Water Commissioner to Canada is one example. He obtained Canadian citizenship and nobody from the security establishment question his activities. He delayed the Pakistani water projects and facilitated Indian dams on Pakistani rivers. Then we see the politicians from PPP, MQM, and ANP receiving instructions and findings from Indian agency RAW to make Kalabagh Dam project controversial and let the Sindhis drown in floods as well as cause damage in billions to land, crops, properties, livestock, and national infrastructures from rail to road links every year. This project was actually approved by British engineers during the 1930s. so if it was ok then how come it becomes problematic in the 1980s?Well appointing a corrupt and incompetent is also a form of espionage against the country for example during Zardari Rule 2008 -2013 he appointed the most corrupt and incompetent on the highest positions. He introduced another damaging policy of ‘system bypass’. With this policy, he bypassed all the rules, and his men in the presidency were calling direct to the land department junior officials and police station inspectors, or even below to do the illegal tasks. The flourishing of the land mafia was at its peak in the whole of Pakistan, especially in Sindh province. His party members and cronies were directly involved in ‘target killings of security officials’ attacks on government infrastructures.Over 25000 people were killed, billions of rupees’ revenue were lost due to strikes and terrorism in Sindh while PPP and MQM-A were ruling the province, which we know now was happening on the behest of RAW the Indian agency. Both military and civilian establishment is fully responsible, with the support of politicians like British criminal terrorist Altaf Hussain, Asif Zardari, and his team and now Nawaz Sharif and his agents, as well as military dictator like Pervez Musharraf and his team as tons of material and reports were filed to all the above but they chose not to act and remain complicit.A security official said to me a few years ago: ‘sir we can stop these bombings in 24 hours only if we are allowed to respond in kind to the supporters and abettors of these bombings. Musharraf was a megalomaniac and had a delusion of grandeur about himself. I told him that NRO (National Reconciliation Ordinance) is a black dot in the history of Pakistan. He admitted to me that ‘it was a mistake’ and said cases were not moving and going anywhere’. I told him that just because something is not working does not mean you need to make it worse? He agreed with the analogy.Let me give you another example of how foreign agents work or operate at high places. Former ISI officer Major Amir disclosed in a GEO TV program that: ‘when he was appointed Director-General Immigration, the Indian embassy in Islamabad was not very happy and asking about me’. He stated: I found out that Indians who were traveling to Dubai could stopover in Karachi and also sneaking out. I immediately stopped this practice it was like giving open access to RAW not only to launch its agents but also brief and debrief them’. The person who opposed this ban was no other but Sharyar Khan foreign secretary of Pakistan.Nawaz Sharif appointed about 80 years old Sharyar Khan as head of Pakistani cricket and Najam Sethi another pro India mole to keep him company. Guess what Pakistan is losing all its important matches to India because all the gambling bookies are being run from Mumbai. Earlier Pakistan had a foreign secretary Riaz Mohammad Khan whose wife was active service head of training in the US State Department. A Central Asian diplomat from Kazakhstan told me that: ‘if I had to marry a foreign national I would have to resign from the diplomatic service’.This joke did not stop here earlier Pakistani Defence Secretary Skindar Mirza had a full-blown affair with Nahid Afghamy wife of Col Afghamy Iranian Military Attaché to Pakistan. He later got married to her and Nahid Afghamy becomes Pakistan’s first lady of President Skindar Mirza and Army Chief Ayub Khan regularly saluted her. That was the worst security breach but that did not stop here Nahid Afghamy give full access of the presidency to her relative Nusrat Isphani (Bhutto) and her husband ZA Bhutto. She was also 2nd wife of ZA Bhutto like her. Since then we had no real oil and gas mining in Baluchistan for the past 68 years. Was that mission of Nahid Afghamy or much more? We don’t know. During John F Kennedy’s presidency reportedly FBI chief went to the US Attorney General his boss and brother of JFK with the photos of the president with the actress Marilyn Monroe who was also linked with the mafia. He told US Attorney General the FBI thinks this affair is not appropriate. Well, it is a matter of national security who the president of Pakistan is sleeping with Ayan Ali or Nahid Afghamy?Pakistan suffered from sabotage, espionage, and terrorism even before it was fully created. In a 1995 article, `Pearls of Memory’ (Al-Nahal„ Spring 1995), M M Ahmad wrote that: ‘close to independence, l was `designated by Pakistan’ as additional deputy commissioner of Amritsar to take over the charge of the district if it was awarded to Pakistan. One day the British deputy commissioner of Amritsar told him `casually that:’Gurdaspur district is likely to go to India’. The award of Gurdaspur gave India a land corridor to Jammu and Kashmir and so enabled it to Occupy the territory after three months. A preliminary version of the award was ready on 8th August 1947. The definitive version was with the Viceroy, Lord Mountbatten (1.1979) on 12 August. However, Mountbatten informed India and Pakistan on 16 August- after the `process of the Transfer of Power had been completed’.M M Ahmad gives no date when this `top secret’ information was given to him. However, instead of rushing to report the matter to the Government of Pakistan, he traveled to Qadiyan to inform his `khalifa’. This contrasted with I the conduct of Indian officers who immediately reported any sensitive leak or information to Nehru (d.1964) and Nehru took it up with Mountbatten.General Gracey the Army Chief of Pakistan did not send troops to the Kashmir front and refused to obey the order given by Mohammad Ali Jinnah, Governor-General of Pakistan. Gracey argued that Jinnah as Governor-General represented the British Crown of which he himself was an appointee. It was the second time Pakistan missed the opportunity to take Kashmir following the ‘partition formula’.Ignoring the legitimate stand of Pakistan and MA Jinnah on Palestine Sir Zafrullah Khan (Qadiyani) was able to say publicly in Cairo ‘in February 1952 that Israel must be ‘regarded as a limb in the body of the Middle East’. He further urged Egypt to seek a peaceful solution to the conflict, in other words, to give up any thought, of liberating Arab and Palestinian lands and recognize the illegitimate occupation of Palestine.After the US-sponsored assassination of Prime minister Liaquat Ali Khan, Pakistan was led into one military alliance after another: a Mutual Defence Agreement’ with the US (May 1954), SEATO (September 1954), and Baghdad Pact (February 1955). After the overthrow of the Iraqi monarchy, Baghdad Pact was christened as CENTO (Central Treaty Organization). Although Pakistan had no security conflict in that region, ‘Zafrullah had put the country into South-East Asia Treaty Organization, without consulting or even telling the army. The commander-in-chief, ‘General Ayub Khan, said he was informed only after Pakistan had joined the alliance.The other character was M M Ahmad born in (1913-2002) was reputedly one of Pakistan’s most powerful bureaucrats. He belonged to the elite ICS (Indian Civil Service, later, (CSP or the Civil Service of Pakistan) and was a district officer in 1947, but by 1966, he had risen to head Ayub Khan’s powerful Planning Commission. He helped to shape the Country’s economic as well as defense and foreign policies.Ayub Khan also wished Arab states to join the Baghdad Pact and turn it into a `powerful Muslim forum’, but he understood why they were suspicious of the alliance. However, although he did have foreign ministers like Manzur Qadir (1959-62; d. 1972) and Syed Sharifuddin Pirzada (1966-68), both pro-western but also Pakistani, but key policy decision had also to be cleared with a Qadiyani bureaucrat M M Ahmad. Though only the head of Ayub Khan’s Planning Commission, he had come to exercise a veto over political decisions as well. Taken as someone with influence in the World Bank, he could shoot down anything by simply saying it may not go down well with Washington.According to Syed Sharifuddin Pirzada, French President de Gaulle had personally told Ayub Khan in 1967 that France was ready to provide `full’ nuclear assistance to Pakistan. In return, he simply asked that France be allowed to mine for uranium in the northwest and share it equally with Pakistan. `Our “friends” may not like it,’ M M Ahmad told Ayub, and in any case, what do we need this expensive technology for.’ Words to that effect. But that is how Pakistan missed the opportunity of becoming a nuclear power at least two decades earlier than it did – and minus all the blackmail and intimidation that knows no end.In an as yet unpublished interview, the eminent constitutional expert and authority on Quaid-e-Azam Jinnah (d.1948) and Pakistan movement, Sharifuddin Pirzada also, told Ahmed Irfan a London based journalist that as far back as October 1967, French President Charles de Gaulle (d.1970) had offered Pakistan ‘full’ nuclear assistance and know-how; the only thing he wanted, in turn, was to he (France) should be allowed to mine for uranium in Northwest Pakistan for a 50% share.In April 1965, Ayub Khan had also gone to Moscow. This was the first-ever visit by a Pakistani leader to the Soviet capital. Ayub Khan came back with the understanding that the visit `might prove a turning point in our relations and that there were tremendous possibilities of cooperation’. The Soviets had actually agreed to give military aid to Pakistan, but writing two years later Ayub Khan had to understate the achievement because the same Qadiyani bureaucrat too had vetoed this. This offer had been made by Brezhnev at a meeting set for recreation and shoot some clay pigeons outside Moscow, but with only Ayub Khan and Pirzada attending.Ayub Khan quit in March 1969 and MM Ahmed (Qadiyani) acquired yet more influence. He emerged as economic supremo of the new Chief Martial Law Administrator, General Yahya Khan (d.1980). After Yahva was forced out in December 1971, MM Ahmad continued as Zulfikar Ali Bhutto’s (d.1979) economic adviser. But a few months later, he went to Washington DC and joined the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (the World Bank). There he rose to be the deputy executive secretary of the joint Development Committee in 1974.However, M M Ahmad’s imprint on Pakistan’s fiscal and development policies was to last forever. As Yahya Khan’s ‘finance minister’, he devalued the rupee by 131% percent. As one economist pointed out (Dawn, Karachi, 1st February 2002), ‘that was the start of the deficit finance, inflation and trade imbalance’ from which the country has not been able to free itself.In 1974 Bhutto amended the constitution to clarify the non-Muslim slants of (the Oadiyani creed to which M M Ahmad belonged; yet influence over the country’s bureaucratic and political elite remained unaffected. Many owed their position to his patronage and almost everyone wanted to benefit front his Washington connections’. In 1993, then army chief Abdul Waheed Kakar was looking for a caretaker prime minister to replace Nawaz Sharif. M M Ahmad is believed to have solved the ‘problem. The job went to Moeen Qureshi, who had recently retired as executive vice president of the World Bank; He was given a Pakistani `passport’ on arrival.MM Ahmad kept a low profile, but after October 1999 coup, he seemed to have become the regime’s `holy man’. He was the grandson of the Qadiyani `prophet’, Mirza Ghulam Ahmad Qadiyani, (d.1908) and son-in-law of the second Qadiyani `khalifa’, Mirza Bashiruddin Mahmud Ahmad (d.1965).Besides being an international bureaucrat, M M Ahmad was all active `missionary’ of his Qadiyani creed. After retiring from the World Bank in 1984 he formally became the `amir’ and missionary in charge’ of the group in the US with headquarters in Silver Spring, Maryland.While many power holders in Pakistan seemed proud of being `secular’, for MM Ahmad, it was his `religious’ vocation as a Qadiyani that really defined his relationship with Pakistan. The relationship was in conflict with the existence of Pakistan itself. According to a Qadiyani `prophecy’, revealed a few months before the independence of Pakistan, if at all India and Pakistan did separate, it would be `transient’ and the Qadiyanis were asked to try to bring an end to this phase soon. (Al Fzal, 4 April 1947 and 17 May 194’7)We hear of M M Ahmad in another CSP officer, Qudratullhah Shihab’s memoirs, Slihab Nama, (Sang-e-Meel, Lahore, 1991) that the 1965 war with ‘India was ‘a Qadiyani conspiracy’. It was planned by an able (Qadiyani officer, Major General Akhtar Hussain Malik’ and `backed by several powerful people, among them, at the lot of list was said to be Mr MM Ahmad’. Shihab checked this with the West Pakistan governor Nawab of Kalabagh (d.1967) and he concurred.’ That the Qadiyanis have their own particular agenda on Jammu and Kashmir is an open secret. Like the Oadiyani Nobel Laureate, Abdus Salam, M M Ahmad too was opposed to Pakistan becoming a nuclear power.In an as yet unpublished interview, the eminent constitutional expert and authority on Quaid-e-Azam Jinnah (d.1948) and Pakistan movement, Sharifuddin Pirzada, told Ahmed Irfan a London based journalist that as far back as October 1967, French President Charles de Gaulle (d.1970) had offered Pakistan ‘full’ nuclear assistance and know-how; the only thing he wanted, in turn, was to be allowed to mine for uranium in Northwest Pakistan for a 50% share.President Ayub Khan said he would reply after consulting with his officials back home in Pakistan. In the event, the offer was vetoed by M M Ahmad and the army chief Yahya Khan. They warned Ayub Khan that the US would not take it kindly. Pirzada was Ayub Khan’s foreign minister and is a personal witness to the affair.M M Ahmad is also believed to have been a key architect of the split between East and West Pakistan. ‘Planned’ for the economic disparity between the two wings and laid the grounds for an eventual conflict and break. Former cabinet secretary and author of The Separation of East Pakistan (OUP, Karachi, 1995) Hasan Zaheer (d.1998) quotes Brigadier, later Major General, M I Kareem telling him that Colonel Chaudhary, Staff Officer of Lt-General S G M M Peerzada (had) told him that he had read a top-secret paper of MM Ahmed, suggesting that it was time for the friendly separation of two Wings rather than elections and warning of serious consequences for the entire country otherwise’. Peerzada was Principal Staff Officer to President Yahya and Brig. M I Kareem his deputy.For M M Ahmad, however, helping to end the `transient’ was a duty ordained by his khalifa’. Born on 28 February 1913, in Qadiyan, Gurdaspur, M M Ahmad died on 23, Ju1y 2002, Washington DC and was buried, 30th July 2002, ‘in Baltishti Maqbrah’ in Ghenahnagar (formerly Ribwah), Pakistan.The purpose of narrating the history above is to give a background to the young researchers, writers, and journalists interested in Pakistan. It was not like that from the beginning. People were loyal, motivated, and sincere with Pakistan. They were true survivors and go-getters as nothing come in their way once they decided to do something.The current structural breakdown is linked with the corrupt and compromised elite and leadership without vision and strategy. The Americans will never hire someone like Nawaz Sharif, Asif Zardari, Altaf Hussain, or Pervez Musharraf as a manager of a small company but they don’t mind a ‘stupid’ running Pakistan. Sometimes we need ‘stupid’ like him said a US senator to a friend of mine and a Pakistani journalist in Washington. This is a picture of our ugly bureaucracy. A poor politician corruption is nothing thatBROADSHEET is claiming; Bureaucartesknowsevery penny of Pakistani money and where to move under their umbrella. In a recent example, Azerbhajan offered deferred payment oil, did our bureaucracy let allow it on sacrifices of their millions of dollars commission for the sake of Pakistan.But we have seen their inhumane bureaucracy act made an example without God's fear in the country where Pakistan's creation was based on Islam's Ideology. We all understand Karachi's situation during the 2000-2015 period and why this poor person was absent from his job because of fear of death due to Karachi's law and order concerns. In 2012, the Pakistani leadership sat down to sort out solutions for dealing with the menace of terrorism, and in 2013, political parties unanimously resolved on Monday 9, September 2013, at the All Parties Conference (APC), stating that negotiation with the militants should be pursued as their first option to counter-terrorism. link to the original post along with attachments (photos)
$TSCRF Heard about this first by u/coinforce so s/o him but I’m going to expand on his DD since I believe he missed a key point in why its going to sky rocket ———————————————————————— * TheScoreApp Is a digital media app with sport betting products and is the #1 sports app in Canada. If you wanna hear more good stuff about the app just go look at u/coinforce post on it to see more. ————————————————————————
CANADA SPORTS GAMBLING MARKET
At the moment Single game sports betting is illegal in Canada and is unregulated by the government meaning none of the profits are directly taxed by the government. ————————————————————————
Bill C-218
The bill was first introduced in the last Parliament and is meant to amend section 202 which prohibits single-game sport betting. ———————————————————————— * How this will effect TheScoreApp:$TSCRF Right now the black market single-game betting is worth an estimated $14 BILLION Dollars. If the bill passes and becomes law TheScoreApp is setup to takeover the Canadian sports gambling market ———————————————————————— * Support for the bill There seems to be strong support in the parliament for the bill since it will provided billions to the government and help fund other projects. Also Five National sports association came together in a joint statement to support the bill stressing the importance of legal framework for sport betting. So I leave it to you guys, as coinforce said “We’re handing you a golden platter” 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 ————————————————————————————— DD links https://openparliament.ca/bills/43-2/C-218/?tab=major-speeches https://www.google.com/amp/s/sportshandle.com/canada-bill-tabled-121120/amp/
[Figure Skating] How one Russian mobster unintentionally changed the entire sport of figure skating forever
“Another figure skating post?!” you might be asking. The answer is yes, because this sport is in an eternal cycle of skating divas, corrupt judges, and petty coaches that can’t be rivaled. Something about figure skating just draws in the most dramatic people imaginable from every corner of the world. However, this story is not confined to Instagram callouts from world famous coaches and popcorn fodder for fans, this here is a scandal that got so big it became worldwide news, causing a massive overhaul of the scoring system in place since the sport’s christening, and a months long investigation lead by the FBI.
How exactly did scoring work?
In order to be able to completely explain this scandal, I’ll give you some light background on the scoring system. From its inception in 1901, figure skating used a system of scoring known as the 6.0 system, which served as a ranking system for the competitors. Over the course of a short program and a free program, each skater would be given a score from 0.0 to 6.0 by nine judges in two categories; “technical merit” (execution and difficulty of the technical elements) and “presentation” (artistry, musicality, overall program quality). These marks were meant to be used by judges as a ranking of personal preference from judge to judge. How these marks were used to place skaters changed over time, but in 1998, the system changed to a “one-by-one” comparison, where the numbers were averaged out to determine final scores. The scores from both the short and the free determine the overall placements, with the free being weighed heavier.
On a cold winter's day in Utah…
the 2002 Olympics are well under way, and anticipation is sky high for the most popular event of every Winter Olympics; figure skating. More specifically the pairs event, which involves a man and a woman doing elements such as side-by-side jumps, throw jumps, lifts, etc. The biggest names competing today, both ready to claim the gold, are Russia’s Elena Berezhnaya and Anton Sikharulidze and Canada’s Jamie Salé and David Pelletier (I’ll be referring to them by country because on God I refuse to type those again). The short program saw the Canadians at a very close 2nd after an unfortunate fall during the ending pose. Though the ending pose is not technically an element, meaning points were not required to be deducted, the overall flow of the program was disrupted, causing lower presentation scores and a small victory for the Russians. However, there is still plenty of hope for the Canadians, because the gap is small and as I said before, the free skate scores are weighed heavier than the short. Tensions are high in Salt Lake City, and everyone is ready for the final showdown. Two days later, at the pairs free skate, the Russians are up first. They perform a difficult program for the time, with many unique quality elements and complicated lifts, but Anton makes a small, yet noticeable mistake on the double axel. The performance otherwise is very strong and scores well, but that small double axel mistake leaves the door wide open for the Canadians if they do well. And they do great. The Canadians perform a flawless, albeit much much easier program. The crowd is losing their minds, screaming for a perfect 6.0, the Canadian and American commentators confidently proclaim that Canada is a lock for first. When the final scores come in, the American, Canadian, German, and Japanese judges have given them first, while the Russian, Chinese, Polish, and Ukrainian judges have given them second. All they need now is the French judge to deliver the winning tiebreaker, as is expected. Except she doesn’t. In a shocking turn of events, the French judge has given it to the Russians. The American and Canadian commentators are immediately furious. Former Canadian pairs skater Sandra Bezic says before the medal ceremony she is “embarrassed for our sport right now ”. On air, American Olympic gold medalist Scott Hamilton is adamant that it was a mistake. But it isn’t, and the Russians are given their gold.
A French Fuck-up
As dramatic as this all is, at the end of the day, massive upsets are not uncommon in figure skating. It’s an extremely subjective sport, with little room for objectivity, even less so with the 6.0 system. I can’t even count the amount of times fans and the media alike have expressed public outrage at the result of a competition (I believe another user is writing about the infamous 2014 Olympics ladies singles drama, which beats this one in near feral angry responses). So at the end of the day, while people are peeved, everyone was ready to begrudgingly accept the results. Well, not exactly everyone. Sally Stapleford, chair of the International Skating Union’s Technical Committee, confronts the French judge, Marie-Reine Le Gougne, in the hotel lobby that night. According to Stapleford and multiple other witnesses, Le Gougne breaks down, admitting that she had been pressured by the head of the French figure skating organization, Didier Gailhaguet, to vote for the Russian pair regardless of how others performed. She also allegedly admits to this in a post-event judges' meeting the next day (I literally cannot find a single archived article about this from when the information originally came out, but I promise you it’s true lmao, most of the reports I’ve found mentioning it are from months later and have some spoilers so I won’t link). Once the story gets exposed and Le Gougne realizes she has made a massive mistake, she begins to backtrack, claiming in a later statement that she never said this to Stapleford and that she genuinely believed the Russians deserved the win. But it’s too late, because the Canadian and, even scarier, the American media are outraged. NBC especially really go ham on this scandal (which is kinda hilarious because they have absolutely no horse in this race). Though, as the story blows up in North America, we begin to see plenty of people making arguments that the Russians actually did deserve the gold from a purely technical analysis. Sandra Loosemore, a writer for CBS Sportsline, argues that the Russians’ stronger and more difficult program was worthy of gold, and even states that she would have given it to them over the Canadians. Anton (of Team Russia, in case you forgot) points out that at 2001 Worlds, the Canadians had multiple mistakes in both programs, yet still won, and there was no public outcry.
How to try and save a sport that's just faced a humiliating, internationally covered scandal
After days of drama and deliberation, the ISU and the IOC make the unprecedented decision to upgrade the Canadians to a gold, while still allowing the Russians to keep theirs as it was determined there was no wrongdoing on their part. For the first time in Olympic history, the award ceremony was repeated, with two teams atop the podium. The Russians later reveal that they found this all deeply insulting, but they put on a nice face for the camera because they knew the media would vilify them if they did not. The two teams did end up doing a wonderfully cheesy performance at the gala together as a “symbol of unity”. I can’t find any videos unfortunately, so enjoy this picture . As for the French, Le Gougne and Gailhaguet were both given three year suspensions from any ISU related event and were barred from the 2006 Olympics. The president of the ISU claimed there was not significant enough proof that the Russian Federation was in any way involved with the scandal, as Le Gougne had only cited Gailhaguet as a conspirator. Most people came to the conclusion that the French hoped that by propping up the Russians in pairs, the Russians would in turn help the French team in ice dance (they did win, but there really was no question that they deserved it). The most important and sport-altering outcome of this whole debacle is the eradication of the 6.0 system in 2004 with the creation of the ISU Judging System (IJS), also sometimes known as the Code of Points. The 6.0 system had been heavily criticized in the years leading up to 2002, and this scandal was the final push for the change. I won’t get too into it, because it’s complicated, but in short, individual elements are assigned points based on difficulty, which are then given a grade of execution that determines the percent of the element’s base value that gets assigned to each skater’s element. There are also separate program components scores based on individual things such as skating skills and program composition ranging from 0.25 - 10. While still flawed and often biased, the scoring system provides much more clarity to the judges’ reasoning and a more concrete winner (in theory at least).
Wait… didn’t you say something about a mobster??
You thought we were getting to the end of the story, didn’t you? It’s never that simple in figure skating. This section is basically just going to be a summary of this massive story by ESPN, so if you end up wanting to know more details, I recommend you read. After the major hype around the 2002 scandal had started to die down, it seemed there was never going to be any real investigation. The ISU was content with their suspension of the French officials, and were eager to shed the lasting negative effects on the sport. In comes one of the most random and comical movie villain characters I have ever seen somehow making his way into a goddamn figure skating scandal. Introducing Alimzhan Tokhtakhunov, who I will be calling by his Russian diminutive Alek, for reasons that should be obvious. Alek is a rich and powerful athlete turned Russian mobster who has been accused of money laundering, illegal business deals, and smuggling. In January of 2002 - the prequel to this grand tale, if you will - Alek, who is living in a lovely villa in Tuscany, is wiretapped by the Italian secret service in order to investigate his money laundering. What they did not expect to hear, was discussions of a fixed Olympics. You see, Alek had just been kicked out of France for criminal activity, and wanted to get back into the country as he had a strong business presence there. Alek, ever the conspirator, decided he would try and curry favor with the French authorities in the hope of getting a visa. In comes Didier Gailhaguet, head of the French figure skating organization. The two strike up a deal; the French would vote for the Russians in pairs, and in turn, the Russians would back up the French ice dance team. And lo and behold, Russian-born Marina Anissina, one half of the French ice dance team, was a close friend of Alek’s. The case against Alek mentions recordings of him talking to Chevalier Nusuyev, former president of the Russian Youth Sports Federation the day after the pairs event, with Nusuyev saying "Our Sikharulidze fell, the Canadians were 10-times better, and in spite of that, the French with their vote gave us first place. Everything is going the way you need it." Other transcripts reveal that he talked to Anissina’s mother, telling her that “even if she falls, we will make her number one”. In July of 2002, Alek is arrested in his villa for conspiracy in a United States indictment, and ends up spending 10 months in the Italian prison system before unfortunately being let go. In July of 2003, he flees to Russia, a country with no indictment agreements with the USA, and so our winding tale of skating and conspiracy ends on a rather disappointing note.
So, how does this all end?
As for all the people involved in the scandal, it’s honestly not that satisfying? Alek continues to live a life of luxury as one of the most important people in Russia, still steadfast in his narrative that the USA set him up all along and he actually isn’t a criminal and had nothing to do with Salt Lake. Despite his vehement denial of any illegal activity, in 2013 he is charged with running a gambling ring straight out of Trump Towers, but as of now the US government can’t do much about him while he’s in Russia. Le Gougne made the decision to never judge again after her suspension was lifted, ran for president of the French Federation twice, and lost both times. She now runs a massage business in France and says she's found peace away from skating. Didier Gailhaguet continued his scandal ridden career, being dubbed “the little Napoleon”; he resigned as president after the 2002 scandal, only to get reelected in 2007. He remained as head of the federation until he was forced to resign just this past February after it came out he helped hide the fact that a prominent French skater sent a 13-year-old girl nudes and harassed her into silence. As for the sport, the overhaul of the rules has inarguably changed the entire course of it’s history. As scores began to reward harder elements, people began pushing the boundaries of what we once believed was the height of human capability. Nowadays, what was once deemed impossible such as quads, especially done by a woman, has now become the norm. On the flip side of that, there is much to say about the declining artistry as technical feats become more desired, but there’s no denying the massive growth figure skating has had. The 2002 scandal is quite literally the reason we have some of the most iconic programs of all time. And all because some asshole wanted to scam his way into a visa. Tldr: Russians win against the Canadian pairs team in a scandalous victory. French judge admits she was told to score them higher, the Canadians are given gold, and the entire sport faces a complete change in the scoring system. Turns out it was a scummy Russian mobster who caused it all along, because he was trying to get a visa. He accidentally causes figure skating to change forever. Non-figure skating fans, if you want, please watch the two pairs programs and tell me who you think should have won! I’m curious what people without strong opinions would think.
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