Bonus Accumulator - Unlock the profits of Casino offers
Bonus Accumulator - Unlock the profits of Casino offers
Casino Game Return & Variance Calculator
Expected Value Calculator | Learn How to Find Expected Value
Using The EV Simulator - Team Casino
EV Maximiser Review: All You Need to Know About EV Maximiser
CasinoMonkey - Make Profits With Casino Offers
Introduction To Casino Offers - Team Profit
high risk casino ev calculator
high risk casino ev calculator - win
Detailed DD post [re-post after r/pennystocks removed it]
I posted this yesterday morning (UK time) but after 5 hours or so, pennystocks deleted the original post. A few people messaged me asking for it to be shared in a few High Tide specific pages. So here it is! -- This is my first time posting a DD post – a friend of mine who moderates on SPACs has shared some analysis I have written previously, but I’m keen to share this here, and see if there is any appetite for sharing my own personal written DD I have on the 30 stocks I have across a number of different portfolios. I have modified this format, as it was originally a script for a video which I created on the stock. If you prefer to listen – check it out here: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw Some of the market stats (market cap, current multiples, etc.) are correct as of Feb-06, and clearly a little outdated since the price movements. Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock. Overview
High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:
Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more
Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post
Investment Merits Very strong market growth:
Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:
The US federal legalization debate is on the table
Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.
Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’
Regulation
High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening
Demand
There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy
Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis
Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation
Data
Massively summarized from the video, (and my video on KERN) so check that out if interested in this point, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this
Forecasts financials & analysts
Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management
Going to go quick here, its explained more slowly in the video but High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive
Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis
Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones
US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier
Dilution
No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price
A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess
Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses
Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more
Not just another HITI / HITIF post... Serious DD incl. valuation analysis
Reposting this DD after it was removed by mods first time around. Potential offending points have been removed. --- Some of the market stats are a little outdated (market cap, current multiples, etc.) but are correct as of Feb-06. This was originally written for another purpose. Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock. Overview
High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:
Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more
Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post
Investment Merits Very strong market growth:
Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:
The US federal legalization debate is on the table
Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.
Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’
Regulation
High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening
Demand
There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy
Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis
Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation
Data
Massively summarized from the other purpose, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this
Forecasts financials & analysts
Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management
Going to go quick here, however, High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive
Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis
Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones
US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier
Dilution
No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price
A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess
Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses
Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more TLDR
Despite the recent rally in stock price, the business remains undervalued on a relative basis versus its peers (analysis in body of post). There is a compelling investment case for High Tide where in my opinion the merits of the investment outweigh the risks. Clearly given the small cap nature of the stock, this is inherently more volatile than larger blue chip stocks and carries with it a degree of risk.
My 1 Year Anniversary of Full Time Day Trading. 3 Years In The Business. What I Wish I Could Tell Myself Years Ago.
This industry has a lack of transparency so I'm more than happy to say I will provide lots of that throughout this post with screenshots. There are LOTS of imgur links to back what I say so it's not just words on a post expecting you to just believe what I'm typing. This post I suppose is "Part 2" my post back in April, "After 2 years of Daytrading. 7 months full time. Here's my advice". I'm doing this to update everyone who came/comes across this in the future. Yes, it is possible. No, it won't be easy. You will pay homage to the rite of passage into this career. I'll also provide some examples of styles of trading so for the newer aspiring traders, there will be some things I rarely see discussed on forums. So here's to 1 year of Full Time Day Trading TL;DR - You'll become desensitized to trading. Stubborn to other strategies (There are biggebaddemore lucrative strategies. Don't chase them. Why fix what's not broken? I know what works for me and I'm content with it. No strategy is better than another. It's a personal choice. ). Losing individual trades won't faze you, they're inevitable. Profiting certainly feels better. After a while, you won't be as enthralled to trade every morning, it'll become just another part of your day). Trading is just managing your money through a statistic and the medium to execute it is trading on your platform. Think: "If. Then. Because". Your trading plan should be that black and white. Ask "Why" for everything you do and use. If you can't answer it with documented results, drop it. I get a bunch of messages all the time from people asking - . Out of those who follow me and chat me seeking further tips through my previous posts. I'll be answering the FAQ's and addressing things I see frequently in this sub as far as trading axioms Disclaimer: I won't sugarcoat anything. I'll share my experiences and add pieces of advice I'd give to those who are currently experiencing the same thing becoming a full time day trader and what day to day life is like, the occasional distress, (DRAWDOWNS). Some of you follow my Twitter for the past few months where I post my daily watchlists with a snippet that reveals my DayTradingBuyingPower. I do this not to brag but to demonstrate that the account does yield growth, I pay myself, and there are days where the balance does not move because there was no edge. I also do this since nobody else shows their account performance. (Yes. You, Mr. YouTube gurus and wannabe gurus). We do this for income, the numbers on our accounts are real. Treat it as such. Get your initial capital out of your account THEN try to "Scale your account" with your profits AKA The Market's Money. I'll go over: •FAQ's that I get in my inbox (I'm still welcome to further questions if I don't answer here) •Decision Fatigue (You will experience this) •The previous year (2019-2020) of ups and downs •How to use my watchlists that I post on Twitter in the morning to your advantage •The pivotal moment that changed my trading career (NFLX 10-17-19) •The road to becoming a full time trader. (It won't be fun unless you're handed the money) •You'll have a better grasp of my strategy (Between ProTip 4 and 5. ProTip 8.) There are 10 "ProTips" throughout the post that I wish I could tell myself years back and I'll periodically throw them in here as the post goes on. I make posts long in order to segregate those serious about this business and those who will just become another statistic in the failure rate of this business. At the end of this post, I'll go over the frequent questions I receive such as: (Answers to FAQ at bottom of post.)
"How do you prepare for a trading day?"
"What would you go back to tell yourself?"
"Books?" (The most abused question, but I get it. I could start a public library with just trading books I bought over the years)
"What is your background?"
"What is a normal day for you?"
"How did you discover your strategy?"
"What did you do/How did you get started?"
"What is your % return?" (Not a fun question since a trading account is not an index or investment account. Intraday traders do not measure performance in %. Most are measured in "R".)
"Is enough to start trading?"
"Why do you need so many monitors"? (This one is rarely asked but I do see it discussed on platforms and people trading on mobile phones love giving flack to anybody who trades on multiple monitors. Hint: Everyone's different. Whatever works for the individual. There are no rules in trading. The only rule is that it works.)
My story:
Background: I heard about daytrading during the 2008 crash while in high school. We all want to make more while working less. I entertained day trading from time to time but always realized I never had enough money. Horrible mindset because I could have still researched WHILE saving money to put into my trading business. 2015 -I opened my first trading account with Scottrade while in the Marines. Apparently if you have a net worth of over $1,000,000 you can get out early (Biggest rumor ever). I frivolously bought crap penny stocks. In short - I was a hair away from gambling. What made it NOT gambling was the fact that at least I owned something tangible (Securities of a company) and anything can happen. Buy low sell high was my strategy. Didn't work obviously. No idea what I was doing. I'd buy and hold hoping to wake up to the stock price being way higher and it never happened. •ProTip #1 : If you hold a trade overnight... It is not daytrading. Stop turning into an investor because you can't admit a minor defeat. 2017 - I started taking this business seriously while working in the oilfield as a Logistics Planner (If you're wondering what company since I am asked this from time to time, Google: "World's largest oilfield services company"). No kids, girlfriend/wife or financial obligations. I worked 10AM - 7PM CST and would trade the open from home for roughly 1 hour. Later I was offered to be a Data Analyst... Only downside was... I couldn't trade since I had to be at work now at 8AM CST during the market open. In the moment of signing the offer letter, I was bummed thinking, "No more trading," That wasn't the case though. You can still build your trading business with a 9-5 and while never making one trade. The data is there. •ProTip #2 :We all see the same data. It's there forever. Many strategies show their edge both live and in hindsight the same. (Especially if you trade patterns). You CAN build your business as a trader without even taking a trade. You CAN build your strategy while working a 9-5. Just because you're not trading, does not mean you can't build your business through research. You won't know how you'll react to the losses but at least you can diagnose the raw data with a large enough sample size for assurance and confidence. If you have a 9-5 and want to go fulltime into this business. Stay for a bit, save, live so far beneath your means that it is almost miserable, (depending on your expenses, area you live, family etc) and get a few hundred sample sizes of your strategy! And for your PTO/days off... trade the open. I sacrificed my vacation days to trade. After 2 years in corporate America, eating cheap food, never going out, saving relentlessly, I made the decision to just do it and resigned. I went straight into the ring of fire known as trading. That was on: September 23rd, 2019 ""(Sound familiar?) When you hear these types of comments.. your response should be: "Nobody put the time I put into this. The 90%+ who fail, don't have it all written out, computerized backtests, manual backtests, statistics, SOP manuals, JUST like the job I have which is a business, I'm just another cog in their wheel. I'll just be wearing all the hats in my trading business. Instead of Oil&Gas, it's just for trading". One thing I see here a lot is people saying to trade X amount of months/years or make X. •ProTip #3 -Think in man hours, not calendar. Example: Trader A puts in 1 hour of study/work/research everyday for 1 year. (365 Hours) Trader B puts in 12 hours of work every day for 4 months. (~1,450 Hours) Trader A lives in a major city while Trader B lives in the middle of nowhere. (Think cost of living) 2 totally different living expenses and 2 different calibers of dedication. I'd put my money on Trader B because he put in more man hours. (~1,000 more hours on the clock to be more exact). ProTip #4 - Have a cushion in your account AND your personal bank account. Having a strategy is great but you won't know entirely if you can fulfill and execute your plan until you experience the ups and downs both short and long term. A strategy is constant over long periods of time... there will be days, weeks, and perhaps a month here and there where you aren't making much money. We hear all the time, "Trade like a casino". Casinos don't make money day after day but the odds are in there favor over the long haul. Month 1 of full time trading was great: Immediately after going full time, the first month (September 2019 to October 2019), I did super well. Business as usual. No stress. Everything going as planned. No turbulence. At least not like I had ever experienced... The 2 prerequisites I had before resigning was:
Show consistency in returns. Consistent Sharpe Ratio.
Make a 4 figure trade (I achieved this while short 100 shares on ROKU September 20th, 2019 and even made a victory post if you scroll down my profile's posts.)
First life-changing trading lesson learned as a full time trader: That money printing spree ended on NFLX October 17th, 2019. Less than 1 month of being a full time trader. Deviating and going against my plan I actually made $500 in a matter of 4 minutes. If you follow my watchlists on Twitter, I always trade with the direction of the gap. If I notate, "Long Watches" that means I will only trade it IF (and only IF) I see a long biased pattern. Likewise I will only be looking to short my "Short Watches". Plenty of times I'll call out a ticker and it immediately goes the other way. No harm no foul because there was no long biased pattern to confirm my thesis. On 10-17-2019, I went against my plan and it worked.. NFLX gapped up to resistance and I went short when it tanked off of a short pattern.(This is known as fading). The market gave me a free lunch and then some. So now I'm walking on air in my mind: "I'm an absolute unit" "I'll do it again and clear another $500 to make it a 4 figure day before 9:30AM Central" "Should have quit my job way earlier being this good." Within 30 minutes of the open. I gave all $500 back. Yes I wanted to trade it back. Never have I had the desire to smash anything but I do understand those who do! Yes I stood there and felt like each passing second was wasted opportunity. The next 24 hours were long! ProTip #5:It's circumstances like that that help you in the long run. FunFact: I never once deviated from my plan since. Not ever again. "I could have paid for my groceries and electric for the month after 4 minutes of trading if I just took the free pass the market gave me" I felt dumb but in hindsight, I'm glad at what happened. It was this exact instance that married me to my strategy/business plan. The next day and the 7 trading days following. I didn't make 1 profiting trade. My longest ever drawdown - 11 straight trades. While researching I found out this was Decision Fatigue (I'll go over this shortly below) Put yourself in that situation... You have bills and your income is strictly trading. I don't care how much a robot you think you are or how strongly you believe in probabilities, when you were in an office less than a month ago making almost 6 figures sitting in an air conditioned office knowing direct deposit is on its way every other Friday no matter how well or poorly you performed at work.. Now you're in the hot seat. Its a bottomless feeling. Now all of your friends and families words are ringing in your head. But just like a boxing match.. you gotta take a hit to get a hit. Win some, lose some, shake hands and get back to normal life. Water under the bridge. Mind you: •No guaranteed direct deposit every 2 weeks. •No more medical/dental insurance. •401K retirement is no longer being matched. 11 trades is nothing. You only require ~5.5 trades at 2:1RRR to make it back OR 3.5 trades at 3:1RRR. It's nothing especially in your research because you can easily just scroll a little more and see, "Oh that's just a drawdown. No big deal". How will you react in real time? Will you buckle or choke? But the thing is, I was skipping trades out of fear and JUST so happened to be picking all of the unsuccessful ones. (Decision Fatigue) Think about those 2 weeks of being in a drawdown. Half of the month. You're not just stagnant, your account is bleeding slowly but surely. Next time you're looking at your spreadsheet/backtest/predictive model/research.. try to put yourself in those days of drawdown. It's not just 11 boxes of red with "-1R" or "Loss" in them. The screenshot above on Imgur is just a recent example. Think about your daily routine, going to the gym, hanging with friends, grocery shopping, cooking, going to bed, waking up, doing a routine, then losing again.. and again.. and again. Try to think of life during those 300+ hours (Weekends too) of, "I haven't made money. I've lost money. And I still have bills. After paying them, I'll be closer to my set Risk of Ruin". Here's a lesson you won't learn before going fulltime but I'll do my best to emphasize it here: Pick a strategy. And stick with it. It can literally be anything. Don't spread yourself thin watching 20+ tickers and be a jack of all patterns/tickers. Be a master of 1 pattern and master of 1 circumstance. There's this real thing called "Decision Fatigue" which explains exactly why what happened.. happened. The article explains that the 2 outcomes of this mental strain known as "Decision Fatigue" is:
Risky Decision-Making
Decision Avoidance
Sound familiar? Does it kind of make sense now? As a new trader you have YouTube, Facebook, StockTwits, Twitter, "gurus", books recommended on Amazon, all throwing their ideas/strategies around, the market has opportunities littered all over.. Decision Fatigue is inevitable for the unprepared. Decision Fatigue happens in every profession. If you mess up at your 9-5, its just a blunder, your paycheck will remain the same. Just a slap on the wrist and move on. With trading, you make a mistake.. it's less food on your table, lights don't stay on, and/or water isn't running. That pressure adds up. No wonder so many fail... The signs of Decision Fatigue: •Procrastination. •Impulsivity. •Avoidance. •Indecision. When you find what clicks with you AND its either statistically or performance proven, have the courage to risk a healthy sum of your capital into it. There are strategies/patterns/styles of trading littered all over the internet: Very broad example: "IFcircumstance happensTHEN"Execution". Stoploss is XYZ. Target is XYZ.BECAUSEover a series of Y trades, I will make $X,XXX.xx". ProTip #6 :Strategies are all over the internet. It's your account/money, backtest it. People share their strategies here all the time and although I don't agree with them because I know what works for me, it's something to chew off of for you newer traders. YouTube is a harbor with people who give just enough info to figure their style out.You will lose trades. Sit for some screen-time and pay homage to the edge that you discover. All in due time. Insert key metrics and find correlations. This is how you create checks and balances to create/formulate a black and white trading plan. When I first started doing this, my spreadsheet(s) had so many columns it was annoying and would kill my desire to continue working. You'll find things that are imperative and some that are unimportant. For a lack of more colorful terms: "Throw stuff at the wall and see what sticks"Trim the fat. Rinse and repeat.
Here's some things I used to remind myself of and perhaps it'll ring some bells for you:
•Surrender your capital to your edge. If you truly accept the risk and trust your proven edge, losses don't feel like anything nor do profits. Although we're not here to put on losing trades and yes it does feel nice to profit. I still from time to time will excited when I hit target after a series of multiple profiting trades depending on my mood. •If you're nervous or your heart starts beating quicker when you hear the sound effect of a trade getting entered/filled. Be honest with yourself and ask yourself if you're truly accepting the risk. •Things you can't take to the bank:
RRR.
Win-Rate
Number of trades.
"This one great trade that I hit target in less than 30 seconds and I got filled better than expected"
All of these are integral metrics. But you're trading to make money. It's up or down, green or red, profit or loss, TRUE or FALSE. So with that said, find what works flawlessly and is easy to follow. Checks and Balances. Then allocate a good sum of risk into it. I read it here all the time, "Don't risk too much" and that's great and true for new traders. But don't sell yourself short. Push yourself over the edge and admit that you know your stuff. Think of Trader A and Trader B. If you've put the time in.. don't sell yourself short. You've built enough courage to learn a business so many fail at. This business has such a negative connotation. But remember that not everybody can handle meritocracies and that's exactly what the market is. Don't try to be the best, just work harder than everyone else and the output of your input will be relative. ProTip #7:YouTube trading ads from gurus... they're subconsciously making you think you're a novice trader.It's in their marketing. They study marketing psychology. The EASIEST things to sell:
Health
Wealth
Happiness
People that are desperate for those things are the most vulnerable and these "Traders" marketers are fantastic at portraying all 3 of those things at once. •ProTip #8 (Broken record alert) :Write a business plan. Your strategy shouldn't take longer than 4 sentences to explain to another trader. When you have a plan that's proven through a statistic and WAIT for it to happen, you feel100Xbetter taking the trade. You don't even care too much when it results in a loss. Because that was your plan, you accept it much better, and you know it was just an expense for a winning trade. Want my strategy? "I scan for stocks with a market cap of over 250M, 10k shares premarket, gapping to support or resistance, priced over $10, and I look for a pattern biased to the direction of the overnight gap. It isn't rocket science. Check my Twitter, look at the dates I posted, and you'll notice the gist. Yes this is an edge but not the entire edge. How fast can you sift through 15 time frames? How long does it take you to fill out your order ticket? Your Fibonacci time extensions with 5 EMA's and Bollinger Bands aren't helping you. They're lagging. If they work for you, great. In my experience, they hindered my visibility. Pro Tip #9: Yes statistics are highly applicable to trading. Patternsdowork. All patterns do is tell you WHEN to enteexit, and how many shares. Humans will never think differently of money. Be the frontrunner of the market's emotions. Nobody remembers the indecisive leader. Risk taking is a commonality amongst leaders. Trading requires courage and it's O.K. to show a bit of confidence as long as you also have the humility to admit when you're in a bad trade.(Notice how I didn't put, "wrong". You're only "wrong" when you deviate from a proven strategy.) ProTip #10:Risk management is 24/7. I've never heard anyone mention this but think about it a little bit. Having financial obligations can become stressful regardless of how you earn your income but its far more stressful while running a business. Not just any business, but a business where you can go to work on your A-game, do every single last thing right, trade without emotion etc... and still walk away with less money than what you came to work with. Meanwhile somebody who JUST started trading made a 4 figure profit not knowing what the heck the difference betweenETB, HTB, or NTB. Think of it like this, a JV high school baseball player can hit a homerun off of an MLB pitcher once.. but how will he fare at the end of the season? Traders don't predict stock prices, traders predict the outcome over hundreds of trades. People chat me asking what TO do rather than what NOT to do. You don't learn labor intensive jobs or how to fly a plane by what to do.. you learn what NOT to do to stay alive. That's all I have. Once you have a trading plan underway and you're executing it, you don't have much time when your hobbies are cheap but I still do respond to chats/messages. I do get asked from a previous post when I'll build a website and to answer that: I'm learning how to build a site on rainy days. Can't put a definitive date on it. I will say that its coming, if you don't give up on this business in the next year or so, you'll see it. What I plan on putting on there:
RiskReward Calculators
Position size Calculators
EV Calculator
Dictionary with examples
I just don't want some generic WordPress site. I want my website to be stellar and a great resource for aspiring traders. Something I didn't have learning this business. I want it to be something I'd consider a staple in a trader's resources. Perhaps one day it will be referenced on this sub frequently. FAQ:
"How do you prepare for a trading day?" I get behind the computer about 20 minutes before the bell. Reason being: "If you study long. You'll study wrong". If the chart isn't grabbing my attention and gets me excited, then I flick to the next ticker. I don't even know the companies I trade half the time nor do I care about a news report some journalist wrote. Also there is no magic news outlet that lets you know about "Major events that affect stock prices". If there was, I wouldn't be here because we're all subscribed to the same edge nor would I be trading my style.
"What would you go back to tell yourself?" Get more data. Save a little more, your hairline and sleep schedule will thank you. Take only perfect trades and don't feel forced to trade. There will be days you don't touch an order ticket. And days where you are busy and have tunnel vision. Next thing you know its time to shut it down for the day.
"Books?" - I try to humble myself when answering this but off the cuff, they're all mediocre. Andrew Aziz's was ok, definitely get it, it's only a few bucks on Kindle. Just don't expect it to give you strategies BUT it will give you ideas. If you're brand new, it is good as it will teach you the common vernacular of a day trader. Mark Douglas was interesting but his YouTube seminar recordings are much better. No book, Facebook group, YouTube channel is going to be the end all be all perfect strategy. Expect losses. Don't be a one hitter quitter after suffering a few tiny losses/paper cuts. Stick to it. Most books will help you familiarize yourself with the common vocabulary amongst traders and will hint ideas. It's your job to formulate the strategy and template for research.
"What is your background?" I was a logistics planner for a major oilfield services company. Later I then became a data/buyer analyst so yes, data analytics/research was a 2nd language for me entering trading. I did have that upper hand and did shave off months if not years for me.
"What is a normal day for you?" I'm always done trading after 10:30AM Central. I will hold onto a trade until right before the bell if it hasn't hit either target or StopLoss by the time I leave the house but it is absolutely closed in entirety by 2:55PM Central. After I trade, I enjoy the day. No I'm not riding around in my Lambos posting IG/Snapchat (I have neither) stories of my profits with my private jet waiting on a runway trying to sell an $7 eBook or a $100 membership (HINT HINT). I grill/cook, read, workout, ride my motorcycle, attack my other sources of income (small businesses I'm building), hit the driving range, shoot guns, etc. I live in Texas. Life is cheap and fun here.
"How did you discover your strategy?" I bought TradeIdeas premium, went through all of their computerized backtesting patterns, tested them. Then did what I mentioned earlier... Tried to find correlations in metrics. It distilled the trades to a strict criteria and here I am. I post on average 4-5 tickers on my watchlist. 7 max. I do not like spreading my attention thin across multiple tickers. I do not recommend buying TradeIdeas, it does have lots of bugs.
"What did you do/How did you get started?" Was a data analyst, was good at research and applied it to trading. My incentive was, "I could have made more money trading rather than sitting in 2+ hours of roundtrip traffic and 9 hours in an office. The data is there. Everybody sees the same charts all over the world. There are ways to make this possible"
"What is your % return?"(Not a fun question since a trading account is not an index or investment account. Intraday traders do not measure performance in %) I trade to make money AND pay myself, so my equity curve will look like a small loss or small gain after I pay myself. % return? I measure my account's performance in Sharpe Ratio and Risk Units. My Sharpe Ratio is ~1.85. While I yield roughly .8 - 1 R per trading day. Some weeks I make 10R. Some weeks I lose 2R. Yeah one week I might make $2,500. But the next week I might lose $300. The following week my strategy will yield $0 and the last week I might make $1,000. Some weeks suck. Some weeks are great. But overall. Just shy of 1R per trading day. Some days I'm super busy taking trade after trade. Some days I'll shut it down after 5 minutes without even filling out an order ticket. Some days I won't even see the open because there is no edge for me.. Keywords... "For me".
"Is enough to start trading?" Depends on where you live. Are you restricted to PDT? If not then how much are you obligated to expenses? I live in Texas. Things are cheap here. If you live in NYC or The Bay Area your expenses will be astronomical compared to mine. A $30,000 account is totally doable for a single Texan with low monthly expenses. Now if you're in California or New York? I'm sure you'll fall below 25k if you have 1 bad month. Also depends on if you have other sources of income or a full/part time job. I encourage every trader and aspiring trader to have multiple sources of income, don't rely solely on trading. Not just for the sake of mitigating pressure but also for sanity. If you have a family to provide for, I don't know what that's like, you never know when Little Johnny is going to randomly pick up Trombone lessons for a school program/play while little Suzie needs transmission work in her car because a simple solenoid went out. $1,700 later.
"Why do you need so many monitors?"I use 3 for trading. The 4th is for music. The other 2 are useless while trading. That's for trading though. When I made the decision to go full time, I knew I was about to go off the chain with research. And sifting between spreadsheets, a platform to see multiple timeframes for a pattern to backtest. My attention span is short, I'll lose my train of thought before I open the other tab to input data. But the main reason was for research. It's such a time saver and is a headache repellant when doing research while everything is laid out in front of you. Now that I have a system. I'll most likely be treating myself to 2 ultrawides for Christmas.
As always, thank you to everybody who takes time out to message me and letting me know some people read these and show appreciation. I would say, "Good luck" but there is no luck in trading. Just statistics. Remember that! In conclusion: Yes. Full time trading is possible, depending where you live/monthly expenses and obligations. You're more likely to become a profitable trader than a professional athlete. There is a level of uncertainty each day, perhaps each week, doubtful each month, and definitely not each year. If I ever want a raise, I just consult my business plan and financials, then decide if I can handle it mentally. If you have medical issues, get a part time job for the benefits. If you're healthy, just be careful. All the best! -CJT2013
Detailed DD post [re-post after r/pennystocks deleted it]
I posted this yesterday morning (UK time) but after 5 hours or so, pennystocks deleted the original post. A few people messaged me asking for it to be shared in a few High Tide specific pages. So here it is! Hope this is OK for the mods here? -- This is my first time posting a DD post – a friend of mine who moderates on SPACs has shared some analysis I have written previously, but I’m keen to share this here, and see if there is any appetite for sharing my own personal written DD I have on the 30 stocks I have across a number of different portfolios. I have modified this format, as it was originally a script for a video which I created on the stock. If you prefer to listen – check it out here: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw Some of the market stats (market cap, current multiples, etc.) are correct as of Feb-06, and clearly a little outdated since the price movements. Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock. Overview
High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:
Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more
Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post
Investment Merits Very strong market growth:
Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:
The US federal legalization debate is on the table
Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.
Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’
Regulation
High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening
Demand
There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy
Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis
Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation
Data
Massively summarized from the video, (and my video on KERN) so check that out if interested in this point, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this
Forecasts financials & analysts
Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management
Going to go quick here, its explained more slowly in the video but High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive
Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis
Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones
US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier
Dilution
No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price
A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess
Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses
Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more
Not another HITI / HITIF DD post... detailed analysis incl. valuation [re-post after it was deleted on r/pennystocks for some reason...]
I posted this yesterday morning (UK time) but after 5 hours or so, pennystocks deleted the original post. I had a message to share it on here too, so here it is! -- This is my first time posting a DD post – a friend of mine who moderates on SPACs has shared some analysis I have written previously, but I’m keen to share this here, and see if there is any appetite for sharing my own personal written DD I have on the 30 stocks I have across a number of different portfolios. I have modified this format, as it was originally a script for a video which I created on the stock. If you prefer to listen – check it out here: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw Some of the market stats (market cap, current multiples, etc.) are correct as of Feb-06, and clearly a little outdated since the price movements. Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock. Overview
High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:
Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more
Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post
Investment Merits Very strong market growth:
Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:
The US federal legalization debate is on the table
Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.
Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’
Regulation
High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening
Demand
There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy
Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis
Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation
Data
Massively summarized from the video, (and my video on KERN) so check that out if interested in this point, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this
Forecasts financials & analysts
Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management
Going to go quick here, its explained more slowly in the video but High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive
Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis
Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones
US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier
Dilution
No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price
A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess
Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses
Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more
Winter had sucked all the color out of the world. The prairie in the glory of midsummer had been a surge of green, summer winds sending pulses through the tall grass, causing it to wave like an underwater kelp forest in a strong current. Now, however, it had relinquished its blooming majesty, its former radiance dulled to straw the color of a deerhide. The flowerheads were stripped of their colorful identities, appearing like sepia photographs of themselves; the ghosts of summer past. The sweetclover, which had extended from one horizon to the other back in June, covering the prairie in a blanket of gold, was now skeletonized, its broken-off stems rolling like tumbleweeds in the winter gales. Trevor was over it. Another South Dakota winter, another four months until the snows would cease and the ice would melt in the creek. In March and April, the spring blizzards would bury the world and on the subsequent sunny days, the combination of blue sky and white land would be startling, like finding oneself living in the center of a bicolored flag. But for now, a capricious midwinter thaw had left snowdrifts only in the prairie draws, on the north-facing ridges, in the shadows of the ponderosas that speckled the hills. And around the trailer, mud. In a few nights, a deep freeze would turn the sides of the tire ruts into knife edges, testing the suspension of any vehicle that took the approach too fast. Still, that was better than the loamy mud, which could imprison even a 4x4 until freezing cold or drying winds finally freed it. The view from the front porch could be gorgeous. Back in July, when the church group from Virginia had constructed a wheelchair ramp for the trailer, the evening sun had set the prairie on fire, its light reflected by a thunderstorm hanging in the sky as if by a puppeteer’s strings. “God almighty,” the youth pastor had exclaimed. But now, grays and browns mingled in a decidedly drab palette. Over at the little bird feeder, the goldfinches were no longer yellow-and-black exclamation points, but had acquiesced to dullness, dressed for a time of year when vibrant color seemed to be outlawed by some unseen authority. Trevor stared at the expanse of mud that spooled out from in front of the trailer and unwound into a ribbon that led over the hill toward the old sundance ground and, eventually, the paved road. He wondered if he would get out today. Always a calculation this time of year. Driving on the muddy channel that was his approach was out of the question; he would set a course across the grass, which would provide enough barrier to keep his tires from sinking in again. Two-tracks radiating out onto the prairie showed how many times he and his family had taken this course of action since the last snow. It felt ironic that their approach took them by far the long way around – heading north to go south; harder than it needed to be, like so much of life around here. But the way south was blocked by Roanhorse Creek. This wasn’t all bad; the creek provided nice wading in the summer and water for the horses for most of the year. It also gave rise to the only trees on the property, although the cottonwoods whose leaves whispered in the summer breezes now stood dumb and impassive, and resembled skeletal wraiths at nighttime. A horse would make it, of course. He could saddle up the buckskin, ride cross-country and be in town in twenty minutes. But that would be silly…he snorted at the ludicrousness of this thought. First of all, he had to go way beyond town today. And even if he were just going to his old job at the tribal building, was he supposed to just hitch it up outside for the day? Tie its reins to one of the smokers’ benches by the entrance? What was this, 1895? No, better not to risk TȟatéZi getting stolen or having some gang sign spraypainted on it or some shit. Besides, he needed to pull into his job interview looking halfway decent, not spattered with mud and smelling like horse sweat. Trevor regarded his truck, sitting smack in the middle of the sloppy mess. Fuck, he thought. Still, he didn’t really have a choice today. No job interview, no job. No job, no funds. Another calculation, but this one was straightforward. He went back into the trailer and made his way to his bedroom in the back, passing his brothers in the living room. One was sleeping on the couch and the other was crashed out in the recliner, oblivious to the flickering hearth of the muted TV. Let ‘em sleep today, Trevor thought. In the bedroom, he stepped across piles of clothes – some clean, some dirty – and over the miscellany of his life; a pile of old DVDs, a defunct gaming console, a canister of Bugler and squares of broadcloth for the tobacco ties he was supposed to make for ceremony, a scattering of empty Mountain Dew cans, a 24-pack of ramen, a basketball. He hunted around in his closet for the dressy clothes that he knew were there. He had worn them once, on the day of his high school graduation, three years before. And there they were; a purple button-down shirt, a solid black tie, and black chinos. Further rummaging found him a pair of brown loafers and a tan braided belt. He would look sharp for this interview – couldn’t hurt. Trevor took a quick shower. The hot water always took forever to come and once it did, didn’t last long. He got dressed hurriedly, glad the tie that had come as a set with the shirt was a clip-on, and ran a comb through his hair. It wasn’t long enough to do much with other than backcomb it a little with some hair gel, but he figured that looked better than not. He considered putting in big stud earrings to look extra fly, but decided again it; might not be the right look for the occasion. Now fully dressed and ready, Trevor took stock of his appearance. His summer tan was long gone and his skin was as pale as the white kids he had met during his one semester of college. The same change of season that had desaturated the prairie and garbed the birds in dull colors had undone all those days spent out in the badlands sun – working with the horses, swimming at the dam, helping keep fire at sundance. Too many French fur traders in his lineage. He recalled the book that his eighth grade teacher had assigned them – Part-time Indian or something – and thought, Yup, that’s me. Indian in the summer and wašiču in the winter, like changing plumage. Trevor envied his brothers their melanin. He had learned that word in one of his college classes and now thought of it nearly every day. Travis was a rich brown complexion even in the dark days of midwinter. Trenton was in between the two but had jet-black Lakota hair and definitely looked “ethnic,” enough to be followed around stores in the border towns. Trevor knew it was his privilege to be exempt from such treatment, but it bugged him nonetheless. He hadn’t asked to be light-skinned. His brothers called him žiží – a reference to his tawny hair. They had gotten into scraps over this, and Trevor even bloodied Travis’ nose in one such altercation. Once one of them had even called Trevor a “half-breed” but Trevor retorted with “Fuck you, boy, you got the same blood as me. Fuckin’ dumbass.” This seemed to put the issue to rest. Trevor’s brief stint at college had been at an out-of-state school, which now struck him as an ill-advised decision. At least South Dakotans had some experience with Natives. Even the East River kids had at least crossed paths with one at some point, and didn’t think of Indians as something from the pages of a dime novel. Trevor was the first Native in many years – maybe ever – to attend the small-town liberal arts college in a neighboring state. He thought the fact that the college was reasonably selective would mean that the students were smart enough not to ask dumb questions. He was wrong. The queries were predictable enough, clichéd even; Are you really Indian? (Yes) Do you speak your language? (No) Did you get in because you’re Indian? (Who knows? I’m pretty smart and got good grades.) Does the college have admissions quotas for Indians? (If it did, you’d think more would go here.) What’s it like on the reservation? (I don’t know; different.) Do you prefer “Native American”? (I find the question annoying, to be honest.) Do you like Leslie Marmon Silko? (Who?) Have you seen Dances with Wolves? (Some of it.) Do you know a guy from Pine Ridge named Verdell? He used to work with my dad. (Maybe) His last name was something Horse. Running Horse? (No) Fielding these questions was exhausting and added another layer of weariness and alienation to his college experience. He found himself having to answer such inquiries from his roommate, classmates, professors, his R.A…Sometimes they were cloaked in well-meaning concern (I bet you get tired of all these questions, huh?) but they were always there. Most evenings, Trevor would retreat to his room and call his mom. His roommate, Skyler, a cross-country runner who was handsome in an unspectacular way and who monitored his water intake religiously, was hardly ever around. He seemed to have no trouble making friends in college and reveled in the social opportunities around him. In his phone calls back home, Trevor found himself experiencing a homesickness that inhabited the pit of his stomach like a hunger pang. He had never been gone from home for that long. Really, his only trip away had been the summer before his senior year, to a weeklong STEM camp for Native kids that one of the state colleges had put on. But that had been with a half dozen other students from his high school. Here he was alone. The subjects of their conversations would leave Trevor feeling a gravitational pull toward home: Trenton got into a fight at school and got suspended. Travis is drinking again. We had sweat for your auntie because they have to amputate her leg after all. Those dogs were back again. Everett hit $200 at the casino on Tuesday night but of course he put it all back in. They’re having a basketball tournament for that boy who got paralyzed in that wreck. Our hot water heater went out but uncle came and fixed it. They still haven’t found that Two Arrows girl that went missing. Travis wants to go up on the hill this spring – maybe that will get him to quit drinking. Good news, bad news, mundane news…The latter tugged at him the most. Like many who grew up on Pine Ridge, he had a love-hate relationship with the reservation. It was the home of his people after all, and could be so beautiful (“God’s country,” as it was called by even those who had no time for the white man’s God). But the hardships, the tragedies, the death…it all wore away at your spirit, hardened you. Still, the news of day-to-day life going on in his absence; a school powwow, a bingo tournament, tribal council drama, rumors of a Dairy Queen opening. It made him miss home in an ineffable way. The last vestige of his indecision evaporated after a particular conversation in the lounge of his dorm. He had been sitting on a beanbag chair, discussing random topics with two friends (at least, he considered them friends, in some ill-defined adolescent way). They had all left a dull party that hadn’t livened up even after a couple of drinks, but still felt heady and obligated to prolong the night a little longer. So, they were shooting the shit, in a garishly-lit common space that smelled of burnt popcorn, and Trevor was feeling rather collegiate. An off-campus party, late-night conversation; weren’t these the trappings of university life that he had seen in teen movies, if a much more prosaic version? Kayleigh, tipsy off Jäger bombs, started the chain of events that would unravel his college experience with a simple, but pointed question: “How Indian are you, anyway?” Colton snorted at this comment. “Kay, you can’t just ask that!” But he was clearly more amused than disapproving. “You mean like my blood quantum or what?” Trevor asked. “Is that what you guys call it?” said Kay, now playing the innocent party. “I just mean, like, you say you’re Indian, I mean like I know you are, like, I know you are on paper…” The alcohol was causing her to trip over her words but she plowed on. “I mean like, okay, if I were to like, run into you on the street…” Kay was now gesturing expansively, as if the meaning of what she was saying wasn’t explicit from words alone. “Like, I wouldn’t be like, ‘Damn, look at that Indian,’ right? I’d just assume you were a white guy. I mean you know what I mean? Ugh, I’m not making sense.” She was making perfect sense. Colton looked embarrassed, and for a second, Trevor thought he might shut Kay down. But instead, his inhibition similarly worn down by a few shots of German 70-proof, he followed suit. “I think what Kay’s drunk ass is trying to say is, like, your ancestors are Indians, right, like in the history books. Like Geronimo or whatever. But do you consider yourself one of them? Or are you, like, their descendant?” Trevor could feel the ball of rage growing within him, a sea urchin radiating spikes in his gut. Stop talking, he thought. Just stop talking. Colton continued, heedlessly. “Okay, so like I’m Irish but I’m not like Irish Irish, like a leprechaun or some shit. Like my ancestors…” Trevor stood up, his fists balled. He was now stone-cold sober but his anger was its own intoxicant. “It’s none of your fucking business. It’s none of your business what the fuck I am!” He was shouting; he couldn’t help it. He picked up a half-empty can of PBR and threw it at the wall, slamming the door to the lounge on his way out. The sudsy contents of the can leaked onto the ugly orange dorm carpet, as Kayleigh and Colton sat in stunned silence. “Jesus,” said Colton finally. “Just trying to ask an honest question.” After that, Trevor had holed up in his room for a few days, skipping classes and avoiding other students. When he told his mom he was dropping out, she hardly sounded surprised. He knew she would be glad to have him back home; the prodigal son returning. Trevor, the one who had his shit together, who had gone to a STEM camp and was almost salutatorian. He knew she thought that once he got back, he could do what she couldn’t; get Travis on a better path, bring another income to the household, fix what needed to be fixed around the trailer, shoot at the stray dogs when they came around. It would all fall to him. His failure was their blessing; they would lean on him as long as he could stand. So here we fucking go, he now thought, patting his gel-stiffened hair and giving himself one last hazel-eyed glance in the mirror. Gotta get that bread. His brief stint at the tribal building hadn’t panned out. He was a good worker but wet weather made his road too sloppy to get out easily. Too many latenesses had translated into a pink slip. “Shit man we all got bad roads. Gotta leave earlier,” his boss had said. So, lesson learned, he was giving himself extra time getting ready for this interview. Really, the lady had just told him to come by “around mid-morning,” so he’d probably be okay. The job was off-rez, down at the county livestock auction and sale barn in one of the closest border towns, “white towns,” as Ridgers called it. It was mostly going to be paperwork – inventory and itemizing and that kind of shit – but it was decent pay and Trevor hoped that he could transition over to working with the animals before long. On most days, he preferred their company to dumbass people. Grabbing his bag, Trevor stuck the loafers inside with his other miscellany. He would need to wear his cowboy boots across the muddy expanse between the bottom step of the porch and the door to his Blazer so he jammed his feet into them. Outside, he walked gingerly so as not to stain his black slacks with muck. Once in the driver’s seat, he figured he would leave the boots on for the drive, since they were already smearing mud on the floor liner, and in case he got stuck and needed to get out. Trevor knew that the people who worked at the sale barn were as countrified as he was and wouldn’t judge muddy boots under most circumstances, but he also knew that being from Pine Ridge meant he had to put his best foot forward, literally in this case. Trevor fired up the Blazer, put it in four low, and gunned it. His tires found grip and he jerked along, slimy divots of earth spattering his windows and roof like hail. His windshield wipers left a pasty smear that obscured much of his view, but he practically knew the way by feel. As soon as he could, he bumped up onto the grass, gopher holes and clumps of prairie bluestem jolting his ride, testing what was left of his suspension. When he finally hit the pavement, the smoothness was startling as it always was, like a TV being suddenly muted, like silence after a door slamming. He cruised through town, passing the gas station, the other gas station, the commod building, the quonset hut, the old BIA headquarters…and turned south into Nebraska. He tried to ignore the persistent squeal under the hood that had gotten worse lately. The overcast sky reflected the dullness of the land – as below, so above – and Trevor alternated between zoning out and counting hawks on telephone poles. A handful of miles south of the border, the vehicle gave a jolt and Trevor felt a temporary loss of control. He hit the brakes and steered toward the shoulder, but the Blazer was suddenly steering like an army tank. Fuck, he whispered. Once he wrestled Blazer off the road, Trevor got out and popped the hood. He already knew what he would find under the rising steam. “Fucking serpentine belt,” he hissed to the universe. Trevor was good with cars but he didn’t have the tools for this fix. Luckily, he thought, out here in the country, somebody who did would be by soon. Lots of Natives on this road, maybe even a cousin would happen by who could at least give him a ride to town. Trevor thought of calling his dad’s brother Everett on his cell, but figured he’d give it a bit. He hated the thought of owing Uncle Ev anything. Sure enough, in a few minutes, a gunmetal gray truck passed by slowly, hit a u-turn, and pulled up behind him. Trevor felt a twinge of envy over this late-model Dodge Ram MegaCab with duallies. It had county plates on it, so the cowboy-hatted driver was a local guy, and as he got out, his Carhartt overalls and mud-caked boots identified him as a rancher. “Trouble?” MegaCab asked, giving Trevor an easy smile. “Serpentine belt busted,” said Trevor, unconsciously smoothing out his rez accent in favor of a more neutral affectation. Code-switching – another term he had learned at college (by the professor who asked him if he prefers “Native American”). “No shit, huh?” MegaCab considered this information. “I got nothing for that but I could give you a ride somewhere. You call anyone? Someone coming after you?” “No,” said Trevor. “I’m trying to get down to the sale barn for a job interview.” MegaCab looked at Trevor as if for the first time. “Oh ok so that’s why you’re all fancied up. Well, hop in if you don’t mind leaving it here.” Trevor considered this. He was off the rez so there was less of a chance that the Blazer would end up with busted windows or slashed tires. And he was eager to get his interview over and done with. Before he could answer, MegaCab added “I have to stop in Whiteclay first but then I’ll take you down.” This was only a few miles out of the way so Trevor assented and climbed into the rancher’s idling behemoth. It still retained some new-truck smell, mixed with a tinge of manure and rich earth. Really, it was almost luxurious. MegaCab flipped a u-ey again and headed back north toward Whiteclay. Formerly notorious for copious alcohol sales to people from the dry reservation whose border it sat on, Whiteclay’s package stores had been shuttered after the state had revoked their liquor licenses following years of protests over their depredatory business model. Now, it was just a town of a couple small stores and fewer than a dozen permanent residents, its streets empty of vagrants, its ghosts banished. “So, you from Hot Springs?” Trevor momentarily wondered where this question had come from, and then remembered that he had 27-plates on the Blazer – Fall River County, a relic of when he bought the car from a white lady over there. He had kept the off-county registration because the plates were far less likely to get you pulled over off-rez than the infamous 65s of Oglala Lakota County. MegaCab continued without waiting for an answer. “I used to go up to Hot Springs a lot when my dad was in the V.A. hospital up there. Nice town.” “Yup, it’s pretty nice,” said Trevor, wondering if he would have to sustain this small talk the whole way. Luckily, MegaCab took it from there, reminiscing about his high school football team dealing Hot Springs a particularly lopsided loss, and then they were at Whiteclay. Trevor played around on his phone while his driver of the moment went into the little grocery store. He looked up his old roommate Skyler on Facebook (why, he didn’t know; certainly not to friend him) and then Googled “Pine Ridge South Dakota Dairy Queen” just to see if there was any truth to that rumor. MegaCab returned with some mail – Trevor had forgotten that there was a little post office in there – and they turned south toward Rushville. Two miles and five hawks-on-telephone-poles into their trip, MegaCab got chatty again: “I still can’t believe that the state revoked the liquor licenses. They had no legal right to do that of course, but just like everyone else these days, they bowed to the pressure from liberal special interest groups. Those store owners – my brother was one of them – followed the damn law to a T but still got their rights taken away. They’re the real victims in all of this.” Trevor, whose father was found dead in Whiteclay when Trevor was ten years old, didn’t answer. “You know it’s just going to push the problem down the road. These Indians are gonna get their liquor one way or another. You guys must see that all the time up in Hot Springs.” These Indians. You guys. Trevor suddenly recognized MegaCab’s presumption, and wondered when if he should correct it. “If they wanted to buy millions of cans of beer in Whiteclay every year and drink themselves to death, shit, I say let ‘em. It’s a free country, right? Those AIM types are always going on about Native rights and shit, y’know? Well shit, you have the right to drink and die if you want. Not saying that I want that for those people or anything, but the nanny state can’t be protecting everyone from problems of their own making.” Trevor, whose brother had first gotten jailed for drunk and disorderly at age 14, two years after their father died, said nothing. MegaCab continued to rhapsodize about “the Indians” and their problems, adopting the tone of an expert, one who knew all about them. Trevor felt the blood rise to his face. Some coloration at least, he thought darkly. In the pit of his stomach, the sea urchin had returned to stab at his insides. What must it be like, he wondered, to live a life in which people aren’t constantly telling you who you are, naming your characteristics like symptoms, trying to trap you like a spirit in a photograph? The Blazer came in sight on the shoulder ahead. “Can you let me out at my ride?” Trevor asked, his voice hardly recognizable to his own ear, like hearing himself talk underwater. “Sure, you need to grab something out of it?” said MegaCab, reluctantly pausing his diatribe. “No it’s okay,” replied Trevor, “I’m gonna call someone to come help me fix this after all.” He fiddled with his phone as if to underscore this intention. “Well, if you’re sure,” said MegaCab. “And hey,” he added as Trevor stepped down onto the running board. “You be careful around here. One of these rezzers might see you here all by yourself and try to mess you or your car up. And watch out for drunk drivers. You just never know with these Indians.” MegaCab gave a serious nod to accentuate this show of concern. Then he wished Trevor luck and drove off. Trevor watched the truck recede into the distance until it was merely a gray speck between the monochrome earth and the steely sky. He sat down in the cold front seat of the Blazer and looked into the rearview mirror. Hazel eyes stared back at him under a pale forehead. Fuck it, he thought; people are dumbasses. Let ‘em believe what they want; that he was from Hot Springs, that could be was related to that Apache, Geronimo, that he was only Indian on paper. Trevor saw what they didn’t; the hidden depths beneath the surface, and in their faces, in the spaces between their words, their ignorance displayed like a tattoo. In another minute or two, he would call Uncle Ev for a ride. In another hour or two, he would be offered a job at the sale barn that would bring another income into his household (and buy him a new serpentine belt). In another day or two, he would finally finish the tobacco ties for ceremony, at which he would pray for Travis’ sobriety and his auntie’s diabetes. In another month or two, the lengthening of the days would be unmistakable. Spring would come as it always had, first heralded by a single meadowlark piercing the predawn silence with his song. This would be followed by a green sprig on the prairie, pushing up, perhaps, through snow. Then a cluster of pasqueflowers appearing suddenly on a hillside, a skein of geese overhead, sheet lightning on the horizon. Small miracles, one after another. Finally, color would surge back into the world like paint scintillating on a canvas, causing goldfinches to glow like stars and evening thunderheads to stand like towering fires. The brilliant Dakota sunlight would stoke the melanin in Trevor’s skin, and nobody would mistake who he was. He would go up on the hill for two days and nights with Travis that spring, and Trenton would keep fire for them. He would pray for the coming year, for the survival of his people, for enough blessings to outweigh the hardships. And there, among a sea of undulating green, facing the crimson blaze of sunrise, he would again know himself and find the strength to carry on, in the face of all the peculiar indignities of this world.
Is the Ignition Casino sign up bonus worth the hassle?
Right now Ignition is offering a 300% bonus for BTC deposits. 150% in the casino and 150% in poker. The poker bonus is equal to 50% rakeback for unlocking. Is Ignition's Casino Bonus worth going for? Let's assume you play blackjack to minimize house edge. Assume house edge = 0.50% and you're proficient with basic strategy. The casino bonus seems very marginal though as they require a 25x play through of both the bonus and initial deposit. If I'm understanding things correctly, for blackjack you have to playthrough the bonus money 10x as only 10% of a wager counts towards rollover of the bonus. So first you'll need to meet $15,000 coin in on blackjack which has an expected loss of $75. Then according to the 25x play requirements they only treat blackjack at 30%. You'll need to play though $2,500 25 times with 30% credit which works out to be $208,333 coin in. This has a total expected loss of $1,041. We're now at a total expected loss of $1,116 with an expected profit to be $384. What about the time it takes to play blackjack? We need to play $223,333 total in bets. Well, we could minimize our variance by betting $1/hand. Assuming 200 hands an hour that'd be 1,116 hours. Using a session bankroll calculator we can go up to $25 for our initial bet with an acceptable risk of ruin being under 10%. We're down to 44 hours of play time to make $384 in profit or $8.72/hr. Going any higher risks substantial variance. Is my understanding of Ignition's signup bonus correct? Is the casino bonus worth the effort at all? Do any of the tricks I read about on Ignition still work for clearing the bonus? I read that ignition uses your deposit first before the bonus amount. Does it still work if you sit down in a poker cash game with your entire deposit so you can only gamble the bonus money? If so do you have to actually play or can you sit out? Is it a good idea to play a bit as cover? In practice I can't imagine playing for 44 hours of blackjack while afk at a high limit cash game to roll through the bonus. Please correct me if I made any mistakes in my understanding. To me it seems reasonable they calculated out the EV to make it hard and almost unattractive to advantage players.
I have been playing poker for 8 years and Im going to start by saying this: Its not easy to win at poker, it takes a lot of hard work and dedication. Only a small % of poker players actually win money in the long run(due to rake from the house, and skill gaps etc.) Lets assume we have no video footage of mike staring at his crotch every hand, lets say we have no footage at all of mike even playing poker. Lets say his actions are not even suspicious. All we know are the numbers and were even going to skew them in mikes favour as much as possible. I think most poker players would agree that the average live crusher wins at an avg big blind per 100 hands of 25bb/100(its probably less than that tbh). For arguments sake, lets assume the best live poker cash game player in the world right now is Jimmy, lets say Jimmy's win rate is a whopping 50bb/100 when playing at stones live casino with a very high std deviation of 125(to increase variance). A winrate like this is un heard of in poker but well assume its real just to help Mikes case. The odds of Jimmy with this winrate going on a run similar to Mike postles is mathematically impossible and this can be calculated. Now lets say Mike is even better than that. Lets ignore the interviews of mike actually explaining his thought process. Lets say Mike is a "GOD". Lets give him a winrate higher than Jimmy. Lets say that Mike is 3 times better than Jimmy at a staggering 150bb/100 the best win rate the poker world has ever come close to seeing. Lets give him a high std deviation as well to increase his variance(125). Mike played a lot of poker at stones and I think we can safely assume at an avg live game (30 hands per hour) Mike has played close to 10k hands on film. People need to understand 10k hands is a lot of hands and can in fact prove many things. We don't know for sure yet what Mike's win rate is over those hands due to the many graphics errors but i think its very safe to assume he was winning anywhere between 600-1000bb/100, only time will tell. Now, lets see what the probability of Mike(3 times better than the best live player in the world) running at a whopping 600bb/100 over 10k hands actually is. After simulating it on a widely used poker variance calculator(https://www.primedope.com/poker-variance-calculato) We come to the conclusion that: EV (»?«) 150.00 BB/100Standard deviation (»?«) 125.00 BB/100Hands(»?«) 10000Expected winnings (»?«) 15000.00 BBStandard deviation after 10000 hands (»?«) 1250 BB12.50 BB/10070% confidence interval (»?«) [13750 BB, 16250 BB][137.50 BB/100, 162.50 BB/100]95% confidence interval (»?«) [12500 BB, 17500 BB][125.00 BB/100, 175.00 BB/100]Probability of loss after 10000 hands (»?«) 0.0000%Probability of running at or above observed win rate (600.00 BB/100) over 10000 hands with a true win rate of 150.00 BB/100 (»?«) 0.0000%Probability of running below observed win rate (600.00 BB/100) over 10000 hands with a true win rate of 150.00 BB/100 (»?«) 100.0000%Minimum bankroll for less than 5% risk of ruin (»?«) 156 BB It is in fact mathematically impossible for a man 3 times better than the current best player in the world to actually win at these rates over a very big sample of 10,000 hands. Online poker sites have in fact caught plenty of cheaters and bots in the past based on their win rates and gameplay alone. This man is cheating in broad daylight on camera and people are debating this?
TRACK FIVE: "EVIL WOMAN" TAU CETI CENTRAL STATION KAREN DANIELS "Left. Up. Up. No no, a little more. Point four centimetres down, and one more to the left. Okay, hit it!" "You're sure?" "Affirmative. I ran the calculations three times." "Karen, we won't get another chance after this-" "Ja, ja! Just hit it already!" Conrad depressed the button and watched in apathetic anticipation as the claw descended onto the plush doll, tightened its grip, carried it up and dropped it as soon as it hit the top, just as it had done the last five tries. "Nein! Nein! Nein! Nein! Nein!" Karen shouted, banging her fist on the console and scuffing the surface. "Ah well. We tried." "Not possible! My calculations were perfekt! "Well, I prefer to think they're rigged, personally." "Why would you prefer to think that!?" she turned to him with a scolding look cast upon her face, her voice dripping with malice. "Oh, I don't know. It's just gambling, that's all. It's no big deal, let's go." "But I want that dog." "You already have one." "Not that one," she said, pointing at the miniature Alsatian in the glass. Conrad looked into the glass chamber. "No, in fact, that's the same kind of dog you - y'know what, forget it." Conrad said with a nonplussed expression and a dismissive wave of his hands. "Let's just keep calm and carry on, yeah? Stick to the task at hand." Karen exhaled, "Yeah, you're right." She took one step back and smashed the glass with her elbow. "KAREN, NO!" Karen bounced down Acheron Avenue, carefully admiring the stuffed animal in her hands. "Ha! Wunderbar...." she giggled and turned the toy in her hands, watching it melt and change shape. Anything to distract her from smell of the flashing lights oozing into her head. "We're supposed to be keeping a low profile," he scolded. "Oh lighten up. A little vandalism won't hurt the mission," she said, her eyes still fixated on the toy. "We haven't even been briefed yet and you've violated at least two Federal codes and five local laws! All over a damn doll!" Karen made mental notes of the avenue's architecture oozing around her. The buildings that lined each side of the street were built from baked red brick covered with deep green ivy and formed in a Gothic style that almost reminded her of home. The usage of electric and neon signage was minimal; most of the signs for the shops, theatres, churches, entertainment centres and restaurants were written in raised lettering on each storefront standing innocuously above arched stone doorways. One could be forgiven for forgetting they were an alley away from the glass ceiling-scrapers of the Acheron metropolis. "... so don't come crying to me when your merit score is in the low three hundreds!" Karen nodded her head empathetically. "Aye, aye Captain." "Good. Now let's stop off at a noshery, yeah? Grab some grub before the briefing." "Thanks, but I already ate before I left." "Well, I didn't. And I'm not getting briefed on an empty stomach." She looked at him for the first time in a while. "Is time not a factor here, Harold?" "Well if the galaxy was in grave danger, he would have told us not to stop for a nosh along the way, right?" Karen looked at him bemused, but internally she found his logic sound. In truth, she just didn't care for public eateries. "I could use a drink, I guess." "All right, how about that one?" Conrad pointed to the pub on the right-hand side of the avenue, The Green Lion. Ew. Too much food. Too many smells. "No. Pick someplace else." "Fine, how 'bout that one?" He pointed to the second to last shop on the left-hand side of the street, Café Charon. "Ooh, looks like the kinda place that charges you five pounds for a small coffee," she looked at him, paused, then smiled. "You're buying." "Whatever." "Smoking or n-" "Smoking, please." "Very good, sir. Would you like to be seated indoors or on the terrace?" "Indoors is fine." "Right this way, sir." Karen walked in silence behind Conrad, his hulking frame towering over her by 35.56 centimetres. The waiter seated them in the back, in a booth where she could see the entire cafe and anyone who entered. Conrad sat down and wasted no time ordering. "Devonshire tea with raspberry jam, please." Karen didn't wait for the waiter to ask her. "Smallest cup of espresso you have." "Anything else for y-" "Nope." "Very good, then." The waiter hurried off and an awkward silence ensued. Conrad attempted no fewer than twelve times to spark his cigarette, to no avail. "Oi, gimme a light." Karen huffed, slid into her seat and scanned the café before putting her right hand under the table. "What would you do without me, Harry?" she whispered before uncovering the top of her thumb. "Yeah, cheers," Conrad took a long drag and sent the smoke towards the ceiling. "Mhm." She leaned back in the metal chair, her right arm dangling over the back. Karen closed her eyes and listened the sweet aroma of coffee beans brewing in the back. Briefly, she flashed back to the storeroom from her childhood, in the one place she knew her mother would always be. A few puffs later, he spoke up. "So... how's Fritz?" "Still a dog." "Don't be an arse." Karen giggled, "I dunno, he's been in stasis the last couple of days since we left for our trip. Guess I forgot to take him out," "Y'know," she continued, quickly changing the subject, "maybe you and Lin should get a pet." "We'd hardly be home enough to take care of it. Besides, I don't see what's so great about dogs, anyway." "I figured you'd love dogs. What with how... obedient they are," her eyes narrowed and she flashed him a wry grin. "No love, 'fraid not. I'm just not a dog person." "Well you know what I love about dogs, Harold?" He just stared at her. "They're descended from wolves. Have you ever seen a wolf, Harry?" "Obviously not." "You know what I mean. My father showed me a picture of one, once. Something about it... it was a... perfekt creature." "Perfect," Conrad corrected. She shrugged it off. "But you know what I like about them? They didn't need to lie to themselves like humans do. They hunted for food and felt no remorse about it. They had no sense of morality attached to the act of killing another animal, they just did it because they needed to. I guess I've always respected them for that." Karen lit up a cigarette of her own and let out a few puffs as she spoke, "More than people, anyway." Conrad stamped out the tobacco cigarette and lit another. "Are there any animals from the Old World you like?" she asked. Conrad exhaled smoke and leaned back with one arm on his chair, musing. "Well, I quite like dragons." "Dragons weren't real, Conrad." "Ah," he said with a wounded look on his face. The waiter came by shortly after and placed the saucers on the table. "Will there be anything else for you this ev- "No, you're dismissed." Karen said with a wave of her hand. She downed the drink in one gulp and shook her head. Total daily caloric intake: 23.82. She slammed the cup on the saucer, looked up, examined the door, then did a double take and examined it again. She couldn't believe her eyes. "Scheiße..." she muttered under her breath. "Harry, I think that's Richard over there. Don't look; keep your head down." Conrad turned in the chair, showing his face to the door. "Oh damn, I think he's already seen us." He spoke in a blasé tone. He looked around the shop before walking over and greeting them both with a smile. "Hey, funny running into you two here!" "Yeah, hilarious. But we're actually in the mid-" "Well, you might as well know, we're doing a bit of shopping." "Oh... you need help picking anything out?" "No, actually-" "Well, as a matter of fact Ricky, we could use a hand," Conrad lowered his voice to a faint whisper. "I was just going to buy a new pair of briefs." Karen crossed her arms, covering her face with a scowl as she stewed. "Well, I guess it's pretty convenient for us that you happened to be in the same neighbourhood. And planet." "Yeah, y'know me. I get around." Rick said the words with a fake chuckle as he pulled up a chair. "Well go on, have a scone or two, I'm not going to eat them all." Bullshit. "He-hey, don't mind if I do!" Karen sat in silence as the two of them feasted on scones covered with savoury raspberry, the sights and sounds of which made her stomach twist. She closed her eyes and breathed deep, relishing in the pangs. From beyond the Gates of Tartarus they passed through the tunnel that connected the central ring of the station - Asphodel - to the lowermost region of the spherical aspect of Tau Ceti Central Station, the Tartarus district. Once a more scenic avenue, the tunnel eventually gave way to consumerism as businesses from all over the galaxy petitioned to set up shop in the tunnel. Now you couldn't enter Tartarus without being accosted by hundreds of vendors, scavs and chem peddlers. As demand for space increased, three other tunnels were connected from the Asphodel ring, all connecting from the outer rings of the station. "Y'know, you'd think they'd have at least one entrance to Tartarus from Asphodel by now. I mean, good God, can you imagine having to commute here from another system?" Rick accented his rant with energetic arm movements. "Yes," Conrad replied in his usual dry monotone. Karen caught a glimpse of nothing in the corner of her eye just then. It was enough to make her pivot her head. There was no doubt. In that moment, she saw a figure clad in black carbon fibre in her peripheral. "Well why is it that, after getting off an orbital port and flying all the way down to the sphere, I have to leave the sphere just to take a tunnel in a completely different district, just to get to a different part of the sphere?" "Because they can't," Conrad started. "Yep," Karen tilted toward them with her armed behind her back. "they passed a Private Act to keep Tartarus isolated from the rest of the sphere. Any structure connecting the districts is prohibited by law." Déjà vu? Karen replayed the faded vignette of the crowd in her mind. Nein. I've definitely seen them somewhere before. "What, why?" "Probably to drive traffic to the outer rings. Good for the economy." "Yeah, as if," she interjected again. "It's because even blue-collar nobodies are scared of being one wrong turn away from a Fourth-Class ghetto. This place takes up a fifth of the sphere and still accounts for... about four-fifths of the entire station's crime rate." She paused to think of a way to put it in terms a farm boy could understand. "It'd be like taking a right turn out of Enki Acres and winding up in South Central Callisto." "Wow. Seems kinda harsh." "Oh, so you know about the Sphere Security Act but you can't find a bloody casino in Karnaby Alley?" Conrad interjected. She poked a quick finger in his direction, "I told you, you gave me bad directions!" Conrad shrugged. Halt. The café. They were sitting on the other side the café! "So wait, that thing really got past most of the MPs?" "Didn't have to," he said. "It's Tau Ceti law, mate. Lords are the only ones who debate local laws since well, since Black Sunday." "Ah," Rick muttered and fell silent. Karen arced her back twenty-two degrees, feinting a stretch as she scanned the crowd behind them. Oh ja. Definitely being followed. Karen strained herself to remember the person she saw only subliminally in Café Charon. It was only now that she remembered seeing the stranger at all, but the strangest part was she could only remember seeing them those two times: once in the café, sitting in the corner facing the wall and a second time in the tunnel, as a flash of black in the crowd's spectrum of colour. I was facing the door wasn't I? Nein, I was. I'm sure of it. And yet, I don't remember seeing them walk in. In fact, I didn't see them on the way out, either. Stepping out of the tunnel, she found herself in the maze of dusty, trodden footpaths that connected the rundown residential neighbourhoods to the busier business hubs scattered around the city. Along the main avenue, dilapidated buildings of incongruous materials jutted out into the crooked, claustrophobic roads. There was no uniformity to the street; each building was haphazardly placed at different points, making it impossible to travel the street in a straight line the whole way. It was this aspect of the city she hated most. Some were built from sandcrete, with shacks thrown together from wood and rusted sheet metal. Others were constructed from second-hand stucco, re-purposed clay and other building materials that had seen better days on other worlds. Overhead, planks of wood wobbled under the weight of urchin children running from block to block. Can't let them others on. Can't let our tail find our destination. Karen's body was bathed in ambient red light. There was no day or night in Tartarus; the city was in a constant bustle and flow. One could stand on the side of the street for days on end and never see the throngs grow thinner. More and more and more and more of them, marching along the footpaths paved by Fourth-Class citizens too poor to afford a car with tyres, let alone one that could fly. "Hard to believe a place like this exists in T.C." Rick mused, his eyes following the orphans overhead. "Watch yourself, Richard. I guarantee you those kids are packing heat." He gulped, "the kids?" "And trust me, they're not afraid to use them." Karen didn't listen to his response, instead eying the masses around them as she eavesdropped. The narrow passageways they called streets were densely packed with people from every walk of life in the galaxy, but none of them resembled the blurry shadow in her mind's eye. A gravelly smoker's voice emerged from the crowd, pulling the image out of focus yet again. She nearly cringed when she saw the source: an uneven row of yellow teeth marred by faux-golden replacements, suddenly too close for comfort, suddenly rubbing a sticky hand along her outer thigh. "Ay mumsie," he purred. "ya oughta come wif me for a little slosh, ya game? I's can hook ya up gouda, yeah?" Karen's face skipped past shock, disgust and revulsion and shot straight towards blind fury, teetering on pleasure. Her eyes lit up and twitched and her mouth began cracking a grin. But before she could do anything, a burly arm came between them. "Shod off, slosher! She don't want none," Harold growled. The man spit on the ground and made a gesture she assumed was obscene. "Bish ain't worf the treble!" he shouted back. "Harold...." Karen started. "Stop. I did that for his sake and ours, not yours. We can't draw attention to ourselves." She puffed. No, that's exactly what we need. More eyes on us means more eyes on the tail. Karen glanced around her. Still, she saw nothing. The crowd, now a huddled mass clumped together like a clogged artery, availed her nothing. She'd lost the tail, but she was sure the tail hadn't lost them. She scanned the road ahead instead. In the corner of her vision, she saw a man in a scuffed coat tinged with seamen standing on a street corner. Perfekt. "Ay, lookin' for a fix a Feelgood? I got you covered, singer," his crackly voice wheezed from the corner of an inconspicuous alleyway. She stopped along the side of the street and said nothing, turning to meet the man with a blank expression. "Ya up fer a strike or wha? Ain't got all day to stare at pretty faces." Judging by his lanky figure and doped-out stare, she figured him for a Feelgood dealer. Looks like he's been getting high on his own supply. This'll be easy. She continued to stare, her eyes narrowing in intensity, the edges of her mouth twitching as the facade began to crack. "Karen?" Richard called back. Conrad turned and stepped towards her. "Karen, we have to go, now." She didn't move. "Karen-" "Oi, the hell!" shouted a thug from the alley. "They're Feddies!" came another. Two gunman emerged from the alley and ran towards Karen and the dealer. Both retrieved high-powered submachine guns from their trenchcoats and sprayed lasers at the street. She grabbed the lapels of the pusher's trenchcoat, bringing his scabbed skin and constricted pupils into view. A burst of laserfire rapped his back and he coughed up blood. Knowing her smiling face was the last thing he'd ever see made her euphoric. She kicked his dying body towards the one on the left, reached for her revolver and unlatched the safety in one almost inconceivable motion. Just as the steel left leave her leg, she squeezed the trigger and cocked the hammer nearly simultaneously, firing a shot of hot lead into the second dealer's centre of mass. He froze up, dropped his gun and tumbled forward at her feet. She skipped gracefully past his dying body, returning her aim to the first gunman she knocked down and fired a quick shot into his skull. The blast sent bits of brain and bone fragments along the edge of the curb. The throng around them gave the shootout a wide berth, with a few scattering for cover. "Bloody hell, Karen!" Conrad barked. "What!? They shot first, Harry, you saw!" "We have to go," said Richard. "I don't think so," Conrad said. "We've got company, take cover!" Richard rushed towards the edge of the alley, stopping only to scoop up one of the submachine guns lying on the ground. Conrad followed suit with his own concentrated energy pistol, pushing Rick back as he took point on one corner, with Karen already in cover on the opposite corner. "Daniels," Conrad seethed through his teeth. "What?" she replied, innocently. "We don't have time for this." "You saw what those guys were pushing Harry! Why else would they jump at the sight of a Federation officer?" "Oh, I don't know, maybe it's because they're drug dealers, Karen!" Conrad shouted. "Because they're selling modified syringes of Feelgood, you guys! Hallo?" Richard took a moment to internalise. "If they are pushing Feelgood, it's our responsibility to stop them." Karen put on a smug grin just out of Rick's view. All the while, lasers and lead rained from the alley and trickled out into the buildings behind them. "Whatever! Whether they're selling military-grade Feelgood or Ganymede mushrooms, it doesn't really matter now that they're shooting at us!" Conrad shouted. "Exactly!" Karen said. "Alright then, you're the bait!" Harold said. "The usual, then." "Ricky, hand me an SMG!" They exchanged weapons and Conrad fired blindly into the alley in controlled bursts. Karen used this opportunity to sprint past the gap and towards the adjacent building, where a fire escape nearly touched the dirt floor. It was fortuitously placed, but even so, the architecture of Tartarus irked her. The building from which she sprinted had its entrance facing the street; the one to which she was running had its back facing the street. She figured that it must have been built after the city's rapid expansion, before the real estate bubble popped. Karen retrieved the Sony Walkman from the inner right pocket of her jacket and hung the headphones over her ears, drowning out the noise of gunfire with the lush soundscapes of the Old World's greatest orchestra. She took one step back, calculated the angle of elevation and sprang on her heel, catching the bottom rung of the ladder with both hands and hoisting herself over the edge of the fire escape with all the grace and flair of an ancient Urian acrobat. Just as her feet hit the steel floor, she took only a moment to strike a pose - standing elegantly on her toes with her arms in the fifth position - before ascending the steps to the fourth floor, where the fire escape ended. In an instant she made the decision to go through rather than over; she pressed against the railing and barrelled forward through the window without a hint of hesitation. When in doubt, geradeaus gehen. Her arrival in the apartment was announced by a sudden crash and a rain of dirty glass shards stained with small smears of crimson. Karen rolled and bounced off the floor, brushing the blood from her face with the sleeve of her jacket. On the couch sat two half-naked women, one with her hands still down the other's pants as they both jerked their heads up and gasped. "Official Navy business! Get the hell outta my way and take cover!" Nice set of Brüste on the blonde one. She grabbed her gun, unlatched it from the lanyard ring and bull rushed the back door. The door flew off its hinges and knocked back the goon who was trying to open it half a second too late. He stumbled back and hit the railing of the shared L-shaped balcony that lined the back of the building overlooking the blind alley. Karen greeted him with a kind smile and a shot to the head. On her right, two junkies clad in mismatched rags approaching from 103.632 centimetres armed with switchblade knives. On her left, another addict with an loaded laser pistol. Judging the distance, she figured the closest one on her right would reach her before the gunman could fire a shot, if he could keep his hands steady long enough to hit his mark. *Ha ha! ungeschickt, uncoordinated addicts! * Killing you is a service to the universe. None of you are worthy even of my presence! Karen's arm moved of its own accord, her brain reacting faster than her mind could process. With her right hand, she stopped the blade two point nine centimetres from her face and effortlessly twisted his arm from the wrist with her right, slamming him like a human club into the gunman. As they collided, the laser pistol discharged, scorching the brick wall behind them. Simultaneously with her left hand, she fired another shot into the second thug's throat. His knife fell through his fingers as his body succumbed to hypovolemic shock. She laughed like a child as she skipped towards the addicts writhing on the ground. She shot the disarmed gunman first, firing from her hip almost unconsciously. The last of them, trembling and struggling to keep hold of his knife, crawled backwards over the body of his dying friend. "Wait, wait, wait, no! Please, I's have a family!" He shouted, choking on his tears. She pounced on him, slamming his shoulders onto the fire escape with her knees. "Oh, talk about unoriginal! 'Ooh, I have a family', 'I have kids', 'I volunteer at a soup kitchen on weekends', it doesn't matter!" she dominated his hand, grasping his forearm and wrist with both hands and hovering the switchblade over his chest. "because you're... still... going... to die!" She spoke the words with every subsequent stab to his heart. Unfortunately, it wasn't followed by the usual feeling of warmth. Karen returned her attention to the small gathering of goons in the open square-shaped alley beneath her. She peered her head out just long enough to count four hostiles - half of which were engaged with Harold and Richard. "Up there, on the baloney!" "Shooter, Shooter!" "That Feddie bish smoked Loocas!" "Getter! Getter!" She ran across the balcony as lasers danced around the back of the building, shattering glass and destroying doors as they failed to tag their target. Karen swung around the corner of the L-shaped balcony and ducked behind the solid railing - the only real cover she could find. Oh ja, the usual. She re-emerged from cover on the other end of the solid, opaque railing on the other end of the balcony. Firing such an imprecise weapon at such a distance, she was only able to scatter weak laser shots around the alley, but it did the trick. All four of them moved for better cover against the fire from the high ground, giving Richard and Harold just enough of a window to move up between the buildings. Conrad and Richard rushed the alley as Karen unleashed the remainder of the SMG's charge. The enemy was torn, figuratively, then literally. Conrad quickly executed three of the gang members with three headshots, Richard with one. The overheated submachine gun burnt her hands. The cooling compartment automatically snapped back, spraying Karen with a blast of steam. "Scheiße!" she let out a shrill cry and threw the gun down. That annoyance gave way to delight as she scanned the blood-smeared back alley littered with emaciated corpses, a sight that filled her with Freude. Karen hopped over the railing and landed gracefully on her toes, spinning herself like a dreidel with her body bent in the Arabesque position. "Ha ha ha! Wunderbar!" "Daniels," Harold said, his voice effortlessly assuming a more authoritative tone, "our orders were clear. We're not constables, it's not our job to police the streets of Tartarus. We have an op to carry out." "Well if the op was that urgent, he would have told us not to stop to shoot a bunch of gangbangers along the way, right?" Richard took no part in the discussion. After checking the vitals of the junkies who still had most of their heads intact, he investigated the tarp-covered crate in the middle of the alley. She already knew what lie underneath; she'd seen firsthand what Feelgood does to civilians. "This isn't over, Daniels," he seethed. "I am in command here-" "Are you seriously gonna pull rank now!?" "There is never an inappropriate time to pull rank." "Ja, ja, ja, report it and get me court marshalled, then!" Don't worry Connie. I'd never break the chain of command. But you're just too much fun to mess with. "Oh, you are unbelievable! Honestly, your behaviour ha-" Conrad was cut off by a bullet to his hand. His fingers jerked and his pistol flew from his hands and landed on the other side of the alley. Instinct kicked in and she swept Conrad's feet and grabbed his shoulder, pulling him down with a grunt and scooting behind the crate. The sound of gunfire exploded around her as bullets and laser beams flew past. "Rick, take cover!" She ordered. "Oh, brilliant, just brilliant!" Conrad applied pressure to his dominant hand. "Guess you shouldn't have been so careless!" she said with a smirk. "Oh, shut up!" "Guys, I don't think this was the best choice of cover." "No trust me, there's probably a few hundred thousand pounds worth of F in there. They'd never shoot it directly." A few of the bullets shattered the syringes in the crate above, but her observation held true; they weren't going to shoot through their supply. Their footsteps were nearly inaudible due to the gunfire, but she was sure they were moving up. Think. Think fast. Think fast or we all die in the next minute. Conrad pulled out the energy cartridge from his submachine gun. "All right Ricky, I'll have to use your gun, the charge on this one's depleted." "Yeah uh, about that." "What?" He pointed to the SMG on the ground 4.6 metres from cover. "I kinda dropped it." "Bloody hell! Karen, how many bullets do you have?" "Well she fired five shots, and judging by the amount of gunfire, I'd say we're dealing with at least... seven or eight hostiles," Richard said. Hate it when he does that. "Oh Karen, please tell me you didn't bring the revolver." She bit her lip, nodded her head and flashed the Reichsrevolver. "All-" She cut him off at the first word, placing a hand on his shoulder and spinning the chamber with the other. "leave it to me, big guy." Then, without warning, she leapt up and out of cover, firing a single shot to some dreg's stomach. Her eyes darted back and forth, scanning the scene and soaking in each detail. One down. That leaves seven. Four armed with Tokugawa submachine guns, two with AKS-74Us and another with a pipe. A goddamn pipe. She took one in the shoulder and slammed into the ground, where Conrad pulled her back into cover by her feet. "YOU BISH!" "Oh no, she smoked Theeadoor!" "Oh frak! Stop, bleedin' stop bleedin'!" "Get out so we's can smoke ya!" Conrad glared at her. "Well, wonderful job Karen, now they're even more cross with us and we're completely out of ammo." She rolled her eyes and reached into the crate, its contents now visible from the gaping holes where shrapnel tore it open. "Are you seriously going for a fix?" "Halt! Halt! Shut up for a second, will ya!?" she handed him three syringes of Feelgood. "They're about ten metres and closing. Throw these at seven, eleven and twelve o'clock on my mark, got it?" Conrad nodded. She handed two to Richard and took two for herself. "Rick, three and five!" "Hooyah!" The gunfire stopped and the footsteps grew louder. They were closing in at about seven metres. Six. Five. Four. "GO!" The three of them emerged from cover - Karen sliding out on the left, Richard jumping out to the right and Conrad rising from the middle - and threw the syringes with precision aim and superhuman strength. Karen let out a manic laugh. Each one stopped cold as the needles pierced their heart, sending a hefty dose of Feelgood straight to their heart. Most them tweaking already, they overdosed and collapsed, firing their guns unconsciously as they fell. A couple of them convulsed, lost complete autonomy and dropped to the floor writhing in pleasure. One had an involuntary orgasm and dropped his gun. "Oh, hoh hoh, that was so much fun!" Karen scrunched her shoulders and immediately regretted it, but refused to visibly wince in front of Richard. Conrad had already ran for the submachine gun. Rick moved over to the bodies, about three of them warm from her observation. She moved up towards one of them - still wiggling and giggling in a state of euphoric shock - and stared down at him, that same evil grin cast upon her face. "Connie, no." "They're hostiles, Ricky," Conrad said before double tapping one of their skulls. "We don't have to-" Conrad paid him no heed and quickly executed the next one. Karen quickly stood between him and the next body, not wanting to lose her chance to snuff the last one. "I'm sorry, but they can't live. We can't afford the risk." Kneeling down and sitting on the last one's stomach, she looked into his tiny eyes as she smashed the three syringes in her hand into his chest. He twitched and smacked his skull against the pavement, before finally lying still, his mouth agape. Conrad looked on and Richard turned his head. Well if that didn't shake the tail, at least I had some fun. She sauntered back towards the crate and counted out eight hypo-needles. "Oi! What are you doing?" "What does it look like?" She injected one after the other in rapid succession, letting out small moans with each hit. Rick looked down and walked to the other end of the alley. Conrad, after some silent deliberation, took a shot for himself. "You're getting greedy." "It's not greed if the person you're stealing from is already dead," Karen sassed. "Besides, the high only lasts a couple seconds." "One point seven, actually." "Whatever," Karen took two more from the crate, holding each in one hand and crossing her arms over one another to inject each side simultaneously for double the pleasure. Then, she took two more. Then another two hits. And two more. And finally a last shot in her neck before Conrad grabbed her needle-pocked arm. "Enough." Karen just laughed and flashed her perfekt white teeth, her face still splattered with crimson. She only hoped the main course would be as delicious as the appetiser. Read this chapter on my blog Previous Chapter First chapter
This calculator lists the expected return of a bonus and chance of a positive return. You can use this calculator to help select a bet size or to check if your results were within normal expectations. The required inputs for this calculator are the game selection, bonus, wagering, and bet size. After selecting the values, click "Calculate," to display the results. A The Team Casino EV Simulator does not support high-risk deposit match offers. These are offers where you deposit a certain amount of money, in order to instantly receive a bonus. These use cash before bonus, and come with very large wagering requirements. We do not recommend these offers. Find out more with our blog post: High Risk Offers Warning. EV Simulator Vs Basic EV Calculator. You may The risk rate is high as it ignores the risk; The difficulty for assessing probabilities of different results; Unacceptable for one-off decisions; What is Expected Value Calculator? This online expected value calculator will help you to find the expected value swiftly and easily of a discrete random variable X. By using this calculator, you We cover risk-free, low-risk, medium and high-risk offers - giving you all of the options, including offers you won't have seen anywhere else. Integrated casino profit tracker . Track your actual profit against the expected value of every offer you do with our integrated, newly reworked profit tracker. Unlock new casino bonuses. Our new simulator allows us to simulate millions of slot spins EV Maximiser is an advanced calculator for casino offers that allows you to accurately work out whether a slots bonus will be profitable or not. Within the software you set all of the details for the offer you are going to complete – and this is where it really differs from regular casino offer calculators that you will find online. Here are the four simple steps to making casino profits with Casino Monkey… Sign Up. We find the best and most profitable casino offers. Follow the guides. Every offer has a step by step walk through guide. Complete the offers. Use the guides and tools to complete the offers. Make Profits. Over time make profit with positive expected value Features. Detailed Offer Guides & Tutorials Team Casino calculates the EV of offers, and will only post those that are +EV. Plus, we have an EV Simulator, a handy tool that allows you to calculate the EV of any offers that you receive. Variance. Unlike matched betting, the results from casino offers are not guaranteed. By doing +EV offers, we can expect to make a profit on average. But our results each time we complete an offer will be
I Hired 10 People On Fiverr to Design Random Absurd ...
Www.flightjunkies.com Congratulations you just stumbled on to the last training facility the competitors wanted you to find ! Think were kidding? You can ... Hyperloop represents the greatest leap in transport infrastructure for generations. Here we explain the concept that's about to revolutionise our world. For ... Enjoy the videos and music you love, upload original content, and share it all with friends, family, and the world on YouTube. Stock investment insights and stock trading strategies by Adam Khoo shows you profitable trading and investment opportunities in today's stock markets. Adam Khoo is a professional stocks and forex ... Share your videos with friends, family, and the world Thanks to all of you who support me on Patreon. You da real mvps! $1 per month helps!! :) https://www.patreon.com/patrickjmt !! In this video, I show the ... About Press Copyright Contact us Creators Advertise Developers Terms Privacy Policy & Safety How YouTube works Test new features Press Copyright Contact us Creators ... The Kelly criterion says that to get the fastest rate of money growth without the risk of losing your bankroll, bet a fraction of the bankroll equal to your ... 10 Magic Products Magicians Don't Want You To See! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rqA0XC1P8sA&t=917s10 Absurd Games You Wouldn't Believe Actually Exist! ...
![Detailed DD post [re-post after pennystocks removed it]](https://a.thumbs.redditmedia.com/-u8f_3KNR4C4xszR_qNH3GzIEi4iY0UWG9PLnkrOHt8.jpg "Detailed DD post [re-post after pennystocks removed it]")
![Detailed DD post [re-post after pennystocks deleted it]](https://b.thumbs.redditmedia.com/_a5fFxhQplfVCy70iqdhYPRHj7Ccgy-m4AUAf9dFMCI.jpg "Detailed DD post [re-post after pennystocks deleted it]")
