I tried using profitsquad's calculator but it's not working at the moment.
I'm doing Casino2020 deposit offer and wondering if it's worth it. It has a 100% match bonus up to £100, with an RTP of 96% and low variance with a bet size of £0.40.
Since it's a sticky bonus I assume it doesn't follow the normal formula for calculating EV as you need to put in a profit target but I don't really understand what that is nor how to use it to actually calculate the EV.

So Slot Boss and 21.co.uk have a promotion on at the moment:
- Deposit £20 and wager it x35 times to receive £20 cash
- The cash has no wagering requirements but you must do the full wager of £20 x35 times, not just lose your original deposit
- You can deposit again to meet the wagering requirements
- The highest RTP slot is luckily 99%
Now obviously the total amount of wagering is £700, is the EV just a matter of £20 - (£700 * 0.01) = £13 ?

So for 777bet if I deposit £20 I get £115 Freeplay subject to 30x wagering. Let's say the best RTP I could get was 96%. If I were to wager on a slot, would it come out of my Freeplay first or would I need to wager my £20? On the Ts & Cs, it just says to deposit and wager the bonus but I'm a little skeptical as that would surely be a huge loss to 777bet?

For those who you use ProfitSquad this is my input to the Casino Calculator: https://imgur.com/gB0kL1L
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I'm looking at the TradaCasino first deposit offer. You deposit £10 subject to 1x wagering and receive 100 bonus spins valued at 20p subject to 20x wagering.
My cost to qualify = Wagering Required * (1 - RTP)
The Wagering Required is £10 and the best low variance RTP is 98% so cost to qualify = £0.2
Then for the calculator it says to always put 0.01 in the Deposit/Risk, the bonus type is Free Spins, #Free Spins is 100 and the Value of Free Spins is 0.2. The Bonus Wagering is 20.
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Then the bonus spins are for Great Rhino which has a medium variance and a RTP of 96.5. Apparently the cash bet size should be left at 1 and then the Bonus Bet Size is the Bonus/10, so (100 * 0.2)/10 = 2. However, this would give me an overall EV of £16.19 but someone on the Discord chat worked it out to be ~£5 so where have I gone wrong here? I apologize for the recent amount of questions on this sub-reddit as well as for the long post.

Alright you smooth brain degenerates, here’s some shit I’ve learned along the way which probably wont help you but if it even remotely helps one of you, then I have achieved the goal of this post.
To quote that old guy: price is what you pay, value is what you get. But how do I value a company? I’ve seen it posted a bunch of times. Its more of an art than science, so let’s discuss this dark art.
It constantly boggles my mind at how many cunts dive into buying shares but do not even attempt at trying to think of a realistic valuation, backed up by some sort of financial measure. “What price should I exit at” is almost the equivalent of setting off on a road trip before you have decided on a destination. I accept this view could, and should, evolve over time so asking the question in itself is not unreasonable provided you have your own view. I know this is a casino and this shit is irrelevant for gambling but I’ll continue regardless.
One thing I also see a lot of which I’d like to debunk is the concept of a $5 share price being “cheaper” than a $6 one. Companies, at IPO or any time afterwards, can make their share price whatever they want. A market cap of $100m with 100m shares gives a SP of $1. If they issue less shares, the share price goes up, and the company’s equity value has not changed. Likewise when you do a stock split / consolidation you can adjust the per share price without changing the market cap. If this doesn’t make sense, get off this sub and do not invest in anything until you grasp this, seriously. The concept of “cheapness” comes from the amount of cashflows you expect to receive for a given price. As Wu-Tang told us; C.R.E.A.M. literally all we care about is cashflow, so keep that in mind when you’re thinking about future value as well.
Before I launch into valuation, there needs to be a high-level understanding of the difference between equity value (share price, market cap) and firm/enterprise value (market cap + net debt). You should also adjust firm value for minorities and associates, but let’s keep this as simple as possible. This is relevant when looking at ratios.
The other thing to understand is: valuation (and therefore share price) is a forward-looking beast. If you imagine the hypothetical situation where a company announces a record earnings year in conjunction with a plan to cease all operations, share price would obviously tank – no one gives two fucks that they had a record year if they are closing next year.
Let’s dive in. Broadly, there are two valuation methods: fundamental and relative.
Fundamental:
Few of ways to do this, but main one you’ll see finance cucks talk about is a DCF. This is all about calculating the NPV of future expected cashflows. People shy away from these because they think they are hard. DCFs aren’t complicated, but there are a shitload of subjective assumptions that go into them which, unless you’re prepared to think at a highly granular level about, these aren’t worth the paper they are written on. IRR is just the discount rate required to achieve a NPV of 0.
There’s other ways like dividend discount models but they require stable AF dividends to work.
Relative:
This is referring to multiples like P/E, EV/EBITDA, PEG, EV/FCF, P/sales etc etc. These are quick and dirty and will give an answer in seconds. They’re only truly useful when comparing similar companies. i.e “is afterpay good value compared to zip?”. Rarely will using one in isolation give you an accurate or useful view of a company.
Again, no one gives a flying fuck about what historical multiples are. So, the slightly nuanced thing here is ideally you need a forward-looking number. Historical numbers usually do provide the best guide/context available for future numbers, so we can’t say they are completely irrelevant, but always have your eyes on the road ahead, not in the rear vision.
Examining the P/E multiple, I touched on why historical ‘E’ could be irrelevant for major changes in operations (acquisitions, divestments etc.), but as the capital structure changes this can also impact ‘E’, so you would also need to adjust for any permanent changes in that regard. Point is, be wary of the traps in historical numbers, they’re the easiest to find but not always the most useful.
Generally speaking, people aim to use a denominator as low down on the income statement as possible, as its closest to what you receive as a shareholder. EBIT and EBITDA are sometimes used as a proxy for cash. Equity markets most commonly look to NPAT (P/E), however if its loss making you might need to go to EV/EBITDA, if its capital intensive you should look at EV/EBIT. Note that you use EV as the numerator for EBIT and EBITDA for capital structure neutrality. If it’s a meme stock with no EBITDA then maybe you are looking at a sales multiple, if no sales, well, you have to have a compelling thesis as to what you are buying if they can’t sell their products to anyone else. Some are industry specific (e.g you can’t use EV/EBITDA on a bank, and you wouldn’t value BHP on a P/sales or you’ll look like an idiot pretty quickly).
The higher the multiple, the more growth the company has to deliver on to justify the price. If two identical companies had different multiples, you could (sort of) fairly say that the higher one was “more expensive”. Given multiples change depending on growth (i.e in a company with positive growth, multiples decline the further you look into the future), it’s easy to then understand that these must be time sensitive. If you are comparing a multiple in 12 months time, it should only be compared with other multiples in with the same time frame.
Sometimes, if you can’t be fucked doing a heap of work it can be useful to reverse the question and ask, “what do I actually need to believe for a valuation of $x to be true?”.
Doubt anyone is reading by now so I’ll stop there. If there’s any interest in diving further into these concepts, shout out and I will gladly help. If all the fundamental shit gets you excited there’s a bunch of better resource out there, don’t trust reddit and go read Damoderan or something. This is a very brief intro, so before someone comments “you forgot to include bullshit method xyz that my great grandad used when he was doing a leveraged buyout of Dildos Anonymous Pty Ltd in 1969”, I’ll get in first and highlight it is not even close to being exhaustive.
Peace out and stay retarded. Here’s a rocket 🚀
TLDR; boring valuation shit discussed above. Not relevant to gambling.

Which means we can analyze our trading strategies like a game. Based on your strategy you can calculate the Expected Value of your personal casino. Here's an example just to guide you in your own calculations.
Let's say I have a trading strategy where I win 60% of the time, but I net an average win return (W%) of 30% and have an average loss return (L%) of 15% (a 2:1 payout strategy).
My EV can be calculated as
EV = W * (W%) - L * (L%) = 0.6x0.30 - 0.4x0.15 = 0.12
Thats a 12% average return on every dollar. Doesn't seem like much. But let's multiply that by our Average Position Size ($500) to find the EV on a full position. Note: $500 APS corresponds to 10% of a $5k portfolio.
EV * AP = 0.12 × $500 = $60
Now if youre a daytrader you're probably expecting around 30 trades a month on the low end.
$60 * 30 = $1,800 !!
For a monthly return of 36% ! If you're able to keep this going for a full year you can grow your initial capital of $5k into $200k! (Using monthly compound interest formula)
Whats your EV? APS? And expected return on 30 trades?
Edit: was accidentally using 130% return in my original calculations. . . Corrected!

This industry has a lack of transparency so I'm more than happy to say I will provide lots of that throughout this post with screenshots. There are LOTS of imgur links to back what I say so it's not just words on a post expecting you to just believe what I'm typing.
This post I suppose is "Part 2" my post back in April, "After 2 years of Daytrading. 7 months full time. Here's my advice". I'm doing this to update everyone who came/comes across this in the future. Yes, it is possible. No, it won't be easy. You will pay homage to the rite of passage into this career. I'll also provide some examples of styles of trading so for the newer aspiring traders, there will be some things I rarely see discussed on forums. So here's to 1 year of Full Time Day Trading
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TL;DR - You'll become desensitized to trading. Stubborn to other strategies (There are biggebaddemore lucrative strategies. Don't chase them. Why fix what's not broken? I know what works for me and I'm content with it. No strategy is better than another. It's a personal choice. ). Losing individual trades won't faze you, they're inevitable. Profiting certainly feels better. After a while, you won't be as enthralled to trade every morning, it'll become just another part of your day). Trading is just managing your money through a statistic and the medium to execute it is trading on your platform. Think: "If. Then. Because". Your trading plan should be that black and white. Ask "Why" for everything you do and use. If you can't answer it with documented results, drop it.
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I get a bunch of messages all the time from people asking - . Out of those who follow me and chat me seeking further tips through my previous posts. I'll be answering the FAQ's and addressing things I see frequently in this sub as far as trading axioms
Disclaimer: I won't sugarcoat anything. I'll share my experiences and add pieces of advice I'd give to those who are currently experiencing the same thing becoming a full time day trader and what day to day life is like, the occasional distress, (DRAWDOWNS). Some of you follow my Twitter for the past few months where I post my daily watchlists with a snippet that reveals my DayTradingBuyingPower. I do this not to brag but to demonstrate that the account does yield growth, I pay myself, and there are days where the balance does not move because there was no edge. I also do this since nobody else shows their account performance. (Yes. You, Mr. YouTube gurus and wannabe gurus).
We do this for income, the numbers on our accounts are real. Treat it as such. Get your initial capital out of your account THEN try to "Scale your account" with your profits AKA The Market's Money.
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I'll go over:
•FAQ's that I get in my inbox (I'm still welcome to further questions if I don't answer here)
•Decision Fatigue (You will experience this)
•The previous year (2019-2020) of ups and downs
•How to use my watchlists that I post on Twitter in the morning to your advantage
•The pivotal moment that changed my trading career (NFLX 10-17-19)
•The road to becoming a full time trader. (It won't be fun unless you're handed the money)
•You'll have a better grasp of my strategy (Between ProTip 4 and 5. ProTip 8.)
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There are 10 "ProTips" throughout the post that I wish I could tell myself years back and I'll periodically throw them in here as the post goes on. I make posts long in order to segregate those serious about this business and those who will just become another statistic in the failure rate of this business.
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At the end of this post, I'll go over the frequent questions I receive such as: (Answers to FAQ at bottom of post.)

1. "How do you prepare for a trading day?"
2. "What would you go back to tell yourself?"
3. "Books?" (The most abused question, but I get it. I could start a public library with just trading books I bought over the years)
4. "What is your background?"
5. "What is a normal day for you?"
6. "How did you discover your strategy?"
7. "What did you do/How did you get started?"
8. "What is your % return?" (Not a fun question since a trading account is not an index or investment account. Intraday traders do not measure performance in %. Most are measured in "R".)
9. "Is enough to start trading?"
10. "Why do you need so many monitors"? (This one is rarely asked but I do see it discussed on platforms and people trading on mobile phones love giving flack to anybody who trades on multiple monitors. Hint: Everyone's different. Whatever works for the individual. There are no rules in trading. The only rule is that it works.)

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My story:

Background:
I heard about daytrading during the 2008 crash while in high school. We all want to make more while working less. I entertained day trading from time to time but always realized I never had enough money. Horrible mindset because I could have still researched WHILE saving money to put into my trading business.
2015 - I opened my first trading account with Scottrade while in the Marines. Apparently if you have a net worth of over $1,000,000 you can get out early (Biggest rumor ever).
I frivolously bought crap penny stocks. In short - I was a hair away from gambling. What made it NOT gambling was the fact that at least I owned something tangible (Securities of a company) and anything can happen. Buy low sell high was my strategy. Didn't work obviously. No idea what I was doing. I'd buy and hold hoping to wake up to the stock price being way higher and it never happened.
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•ProTip #1 : If you hold a trade overnight... It is not daytrading. Stop turning into an investor because you can't admit a minor defeat.
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2017 - I started taking this business seriously while working in the oilfield as a Logistics Planner (If you're wondering what company since I am asked this from time to time, Google: "World's largest oilfield services company").
No kids, girlfriend/wife or financial obligations. I worked 10AM - 7PM CST and would trade the open from home for roughly 1 hour. Later I was offered to be a Data Analyst... Only downside was... I couldn't trade since I had to be at work now at 8AM CST during the market open. In the moment of signing the offer letter, I was bummed thinking, "No more trading,"
That wasn't the case though. You can still build your trading business with a 9-5 and while never making one trade. The data is there.
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•ProTip #2 : We all see the same data. It's there forever. Many strategies show their edge both live and in hindsight the same. (Especially if you trade patterns). You CAN build your business as a trader without even taking a trade. You CAN build your strategy while working a 9-5. Just because you're not trading, does not mean you can't build your business through research. You won't know how you'll react to the losses but at least you can diagnose the raw data with a large enough sample size for assurance and confidence.
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If you have a 9-5 and want to go fulltime into this business. Stay for a bit, save, live so far beneath your means that it is almost miserable, (depending on your expenses, area you live, family etc) and get a few hundred sample sizes of your strategy! And for your PTO/days off... trade the open. I sacrificed my vacation days to trade.
After 2 years in corporate America, eating cheap food, never going out, saving relentlessly, I made the decision to just do it and resigned. I went straight into the ring of fire known as trading. That was on: September 23rd, 2019
"" ^{(Sound familiar?})
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When you hear these types of comments.. your response should be: "Nobody put the time I put into this. The 90%+ who fail, don't have it all written out, computerized backtests, manual backtests, statistics, SOP manuals, JUST like the job I have which is a business, I'm just another cog in their wheel. I'll just be wearing all the hats in my trading business. Instead of Oil&Gas, it's just for trading". One thing I see here a lot is people saying to trade X amount of months/years or make X.
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•ProTip #3 - Think in man hours, not calendar. Example:
Trader A puts in 1 hour of study/work/research everyday for 1 year. (365 Hours)
Trader B puts in 12 hours of work every day for 4 months. (~1,450 Hours)
Trader A lives in a major city while Trader B lives in the middle of nowhere. (Think cost of living)
2 totally different living expenses and 2 different calibers of dedication. I'd put my money on Trader B because he put in more man hours. (~1,000 more hours on the clock to be more exact).
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ProTip #4 - Have a cushion in your account AND your personal bank account. Having a strategy is great but you won't know entirely if you can fulfill and execute your plan until you experience the ups and downs both short and long term. A strategy is constant over long periods of time... there will be days, weeks, and perhaps a month here and there where you aren't making much money. We hear all the time, "Trade like a casino". Casinos don't make money day after day but the odds are in there favor over the long haul.
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Month 1 of full time trading was great:
Immediately after going full time, the first month (September 2019 to October 2019), I did super well. Business as usual. No stress. Everything going as planned. No turbulence. At least not like I had ever experienced...
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The 2 prerequisites I had before resigning was:

1. Show consistency in returns. Consistent Sharpe Ratio.
2. Make a 4 figure trade (I achieved this while short 100 shares on ROKU September 20th, 2019 and even made a victory post if you scroll down my profile's posts.)

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First life-changing trading lesson learned as a full time trader:
That money printing spree ended on NFLX October 17th, 2019. Less than 1 month of being a full time trader. Deviating and going against my plan I actually made $500 in a matter of 4 minutes. If you follow my watchlists on Twitter, I always trade with the direction of the gap. If I notate, "Long Watches" that means I will only trade it IF (and only IF) I see a long biased pattern. Likewise I will only be looking to short my "Short Watches". Plenty of times I'll call out a ticker and it immediately goes the other way. No harm no foul because there was no long biased pattern to confirm my thesis.
On 10-17-2019, I went against my plan and it worked.. NFLX gapped up to resistance and I went short when it tanked off of a short pattern.(This is known as fading). The market gave me a free lunch and then some. So now I'm walking on air in my mind:
"I'm an absolute unit"
"I'll do it again and clear another $500 to make it a 4 figure day before 9:30AM Central"
"Should have quit my job way earlier being this good."
Within 30 minutes of the open. I gave all $500 back. Yes I wanted to trade it back. Never have I had the desire to smash anything but I do understand those who do! Yes I stood there and felt like each passing second was wasted opportunity. The next 24 hours were long!
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ProTip #5: It's circumstances like that that help you in the long run. FunFact: I never once deviated from my plan since. Not ever again.
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"I could have paid for my groceries and electric for the month after 4 minutes of trading if I just took the free pass the market gave me" I felt dumb but in hindsight, I'm glad at what happened. It was this exact instance that married me to my strategy/business plan. The next day and the 7 trading days following. I didn't make 1 profiting trade. My longest ever drawdown - 11 straight trades. While researching I found out this was Decision Fatigue (I'll go over this shortly below)
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Put yourself in that situation...
You have bills and your income is strictly trading. I don't care how much a robot you think you are or how strongly you believe in probabilities, when you were in an office less than a month ago making almost 6 figures sitting in an air conditioned office knowing direct deposit is on its way every other Friday no matter how well or poorly you performed at work.. Now you're in the hot seat. Its a bottomless feeling. Now all of your friends and families words are ringing in your head.
But just like a boxing match.. you gotta take a hit to get a hit. Win some, lose some, shake hands and get back to normal life. Water under the bridge.
Mind you:
•No guaranteed direct deposit every 2 weeks.
•No more medical/dental insurance.
•401K retirement is no longer being matched.
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11 trades is nothing. You only require ~5.5 trades at 2:1RRR to make it back OR 3.5 trades at 3:1RRR. It's nothing especially in your research because you can easily just scroll a little more and see, "Oh that's just a drawdown. No big deal". How will you react in real time? Will you buckle or choke? But the thing is, I was skipping trades out of fear and JUST so happened to be picking all of the unsuccessful ones. (Decision Fatigue)
Think about those 2 weeks of being in a drawdown. Half of the month. You're not just stagnant, your account is bleeding slowly but surely. Next time you're looking at your spreadsheet/backtest/predictive model/research.. try to put yourself in those days of drawdown. It's not just 11 boxes of red with "-1R" or "Loss" in them. The screenshot above on Imgur is just a recent example.
Think about your daily routine, going to the gym, hanging with friends, grocery shopping, cooking, going to bed, waking up, doing a routine, then losing again.. and again.. and again. Try to think of life during those 300+ hours (Weekends too) of, "I haven't made money. I've lost money. And I still have bills. After paying them, I'll be closer to my set Risk of Ruin".
Here's a lesson you won't learn before going fulltime but I'll do my best to emphasize it here:
Pick a strategy. And stick with it. It can literally be anything. Don't spread yourself thin watching 20+ tickers and be a jack of all patterns/tickers. Be a master of 1 pattern and master of 1 circumstance. There's this real thing called "Decision Fatigue" which explains exactly why what happened.. happened. The article explains that the 2 outcomes of this mental strain known as "Decision Fatigue" is:

1. Risky Decision-Making
2. Decision Avoidance

Sound familiar? Does it kind of make sense now? As a new trader you have YouTube, Facebook, StockTwits, Twitter, "gurus", books recommended on Amazon, all throwing their ideas/strategies around, the market has opportunities littered all over.. Decision Fatigue is inevitable for the unprepared. Decision Fatigue happens in every profession. If you mess up at your 9-5, its just a blunder, your paycheck will remain the same. Just a slap on the wrist and move on. With trading, you make a mistake.. it's less food on your table, lights don't stay on, and/or water isn't running. That pressure adds up. No wonder so many fail...
The signs of Decision Fatigue:
•Procrastination.
•Impulsivity.
•Avoidance.
•Indecision.
When you find what clicks with you AND its either statistically or performance proven, have the courage to risk a healthy sum of your capital into it. There are strategies/patterns/styles of trading littered all over the internet:
Very broad example:
"IF circumstance happens THEN "Execution". Stoploss is XYZ. Target is XYZ. BECAUSE over a series of Y trades, I will make $X,XXX.xx".
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ProTip #6 : Strategies are all over the internet. It's your account/money, backtest it. People share their strategies here all the time and although I don't agree with them because I know what works for me, it's something to chew off of for you newer traders. YouTube is a harbor with people who give just enough info to figure their style out. You will lose trades. Sit for some screen-time and pay homage to the edge that you discover. All in due time.
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Insert key metrics and find correlations. This is how you create checks and balances to create/formulate a black and white trading plan. When I first started doing this, my spreadsheet(s) had so many columns it was annoying and would kill my desire to continue working. You'll find things that are imperative and some that are unimportant. For a lack of more colorful terms: "Throw stuff at the wall and see what sticks" Trim the fat. Rinse and repeat.
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Here's some things I used to remind myself of and perhaps it'll ring some bells for you:

•Surrender your capital to your edge. If you truly accept the risk and trust your proven edge, losses don't feel like anything nor do profits. Although we're not here to put on losing trades and yes it does feel nice to profit. I still from time to time will excited when I hit target after a series of multiple profiting trades depending on my mood.
•If you're nervous or your heart starts beating quicker when you hear the sound effect of a trade getting entered/filled. Be honest with yourself and ask yourself if you're truly accepting the risk.
•Things you can't take to the bank:

1. RRR.
2. Win-Rate
3. Number of trades.
4. "This one great trade that I hit target in less than 30 seconds and I got filled better than expected"

All of these are integral metrics. But you're trading to make money. It's up or down, green or red, profit or loss, TRUE or FALSE. So with that said, find what works flawlessly and is easy to follow. Checks and Balances. Then allocate a good sum of risk into it. I read it here all the time, "Don't risk too much" and that's great and true for new traders. But don't sell yourself short. Push yourself over the edge and admit that you know your stuff. Think of Trader A and Trader B. If you've put the time in.. don't sell yourself short. You've built enough courage to learn a business so many fail at. This business has such a negative connotation. But remember that not everybody can handle meritocracies and that's exactly what the market is. Don't try to be the best, just work harder than everyone else and the output of your input will be relative.
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ProTip #7: YouTube trading ads from gurus... they're subconsciously making you think you're a novice trader. It's in their marketing. They study marketing psychology. The EASIEST things to sell:

1. Health
2. Wealth
3. Happiness

People that are desperate for those things are the most vulnerable and these "Traders" marketers are fantastic at portraying all 3 of those things at once.
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•ProTip #8 (Broken record alert) : Write a business plan. Your strategy shouldn't take longer than 4 sentences to explain to another trader. When you have a plan that's proven through a statistic and WAIT for it to happen, you feel 100X better taking the trade. You don't even care too much when it results in a loss. Because that was your plan, you accept it much better, and you know it was just an expense for a winning trade.
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Want my strategy? "I scan for stocks with a market cap of over 250M, 10k shares premarket, gapping to support or resistance, priced over $10, and I look for a pattern biased to the direction of the overnight gap. It isn't rocket science. Check my Twitter, look at the dates I posted, and you'll notice the gist. Yes this is an edge but not the entire edge. How fast can you sift through 15 time frames? How long does it take you to fill out your order ticket? Your Fibonacci time extensions with 5 EMA's and Bollinger Bands aren't helping you. They're lagging. If they work for you, great. In my experience, they hindered my visibility.
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Pro Tip #9: Yes statistics are highly applicable to trading. Patterns do work. All patterns do is tell you WHEN to enteexit, and how many shares. Humans will never think differently of money. Be the frontrunner of the market's emotions. Nobody remembers the indecisive leader. Risk taking is a commonality amongst leaders. Trading requires courage and it's O.K. to show a bit of confidence as long as you also have the humility to admit when you're in a bad trade. (Notice how I didn't put, "wrong". You're only "wrong" when you deviate from a proven strategy.)
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ProTip #10: Risk management is 24/7. I've never heard anyone mention this but think about it a little bit. Having financial obligations can become stressful regardless of how you earn your income but its far more stressful while running a business. Not just any business, but a business where you can go to work on your A-game, do every single last thing right, trade without emotion etc... and still walk away with less money than what you came to work with. Meanwhile somebody who JUST started trading made a 4 figure profit not knowing what the heck the difference between ETB, HTB, or NTB. Think of it like this, a JV high school baseball player can hit a homerun off of an MLB pitcher once.. but how will he fare at the end of the season? Traders don't predict stock prices, traders predict the outcome over hundreds of trades. People chat me asking what TO do rather than what NOT to do. You don't learn labor intensive jobs or how to fly a plane by what to do.. you learn what NOT to do to stay alive.
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That's all I have. Once you have a trading plan underway and you're executing it, you don't have much time when your hobbies are cheap but I still do respond to chats/messages. I do get asked from a previous post when I'll build a website and to answer that: I'm learning how to build a site on rainy days. Can't put a definitive date on it. I will say that its coming, if you don't give up on this business in the next year or so, you'll see it. What I plan on putting on there:

1. RiskReward Calculators
2. Position size Calculators
3. EV Calculator
4. Dictionary with examples

I just don't want some generic WordPress site. I want my website to be stellar and a great resource for aspiring traders. Something I didn't have learning this business. I want it to be something I'd consider a staple in a trader's resources. Perhaps one day it will be referenced on this sub frequently.
FAQ:

1. "How do you prepare for a trading day?" I get behind the computer about 20 minutes before the bell. Reason being: "If you study long. You'll study wrong". If the chart isn't grabbing my attention and gets me excited, then I flick to the next ticker. I don't even know the companies I trade half the time nor do I care about a news report some journalist wrote. Also there is no magic news outlet that lets you know about "Major events that affect stock prices". If there was, I wouldn't be here because we're all subscribed to the same edge nor would I be trading my style.
2. "What would you go back to tell yourself?" Get more data. Save a little more, your hairline and sleep schedule will thank you. Take only perfect trades and don't feel forced to trade. There will be days you don't touch an order ticket. And days where you are busy and have tunnel vision. Next thing you know its time to shut it down for the day.
3. "Books?" - I try to humble myself when answering this but off the cuff, they're all mediocre. Andrew Aziz's was ok, definitely get it, it's only a few bucks on Kindle. Just don't expect it to give you strategies BUT it will give you ideas. If you're brand new, it is good as it will teach you the common vernacular of a day trader. Mark Douglas was interesting but his YouTube seminar recordings are much better. No book, Facebook group, YouTube channel is going to be the end all be all perfect strategy. Expect losses. Don't be a one hitter quitter after suffering a few tiny losses/paper cuts. Stick to it. Most books will help you familiarize yourself with the common vocabulary amongst traders and will hint ideas. It's your job to formulate the strategy and template for research.
4. "What is your background?" I was a logistics planner for a major oilfield services company. Later I then became a data/buyer analyst so yes, data analytics/research was a 2nd language for me entering trading. I did have that upper hand and did shave off months if not years for me.
5. "What is a normal day for you?" I'm always done trading after 10:30AM Central. I will hold onto a trade until right before the bell if it hasn't hit either target or StopLoss by the time I leave the house but it is absolutely closed in entirety by 2:55PM Central. After I trade, I enjoy the day. No I'm not riding around in my Lambos posting IG/Snapchat (I have neither) stories of my profits with my private jet waiting on a runway trying to sell an $7 eBook or a $100 membership (HINT HINT). I grill/cook, read, workout, ride my motorcycle, attack my other sources of income (small businesses I'm building), hit the driving range, shoot guns, etc. I live in Texas. Life is cheap and fun here.
6. "How did you discover your strategy?" I bought TradeIdeas premium, went through all of their computerized backtesting patterns, tested them. Then did what I mentioned earlier... Tried to find correlations in metrics. It distilled the trades to a strict criteria and here I am. I post on average 4-5 tickers on my watchlist. 7 max. I do not like spreading my attention thin across multiple tickers. I do not recommend buying TradeIdeas, it does have lots of bugs.
7. "What did you do/How did you get started?" Was a data analyst, was good at research and applied it to trading. My incentive was, "I could have made more money trading rather than sitting in 2+ hours of roundtrip traffic and 9 hours in an office. The data is there. Everybody sees the same charts all over the world. There are ways to make this possible"
8. "What is your % return?" (Not a fun question since a trading account is not an index or investment account. Intraday traders do not measure performance in %) I trade to make money AND pay myself, so my equity curve will look like a small loss or small gain after I pay myself. % return? I measure my account's performance in Sharpe Ratio and Risk Units. My Sharpe Ratio is ~1.85. While I yield roughly .8 - 1 R per trading day. Some weeks I make 10R. Some weeks I lose 2R. Yeah one week I might make $2,500. But the next week I might lose $300. The following week my strategy will yield $0 and the last week I might make $1,000. Some weeks suck. Some weeks are great. But overall. Just shy of 1R per trading day. Some days I'm super busy taking trade after trade. Some days I'll shut it down after 5 minutes without even filling out an order ticket. Some days I won't even see the open because there is no edge for me.. Keywords... "For me".
9. "Is enough to start trading?" Depends on where you live. Are you restricted to PDT? If not then how much are you obligated to expenses? I live in Texas. Things are cheap here. If you live in NYC or The Bay Area your expenses will be astronomical compared to mine. A $30,000 account is totally doable for a single Texan with low monthly expenses. Now if you're in California or New York? I'm sure you'll fall below 25k if you have 1 bad month. Also depends on if you have other sources of income or a full/part time job. I encourage every trader and aspiring trader to have multiple sources of income, don't rely solely on trading. Not just for the sake of mitigating pressure but also for sanity. If you have a family to provide for, I don't know what that's like, you never know when Little Johnny is going to randomly pick up Trombone lessons for a school program/play while little Suzie needs transmission work in her car because a simple solenoid went out. $1,700 later.
10. "Why do you need so many monitors?" I use 3 for trading. The 4th is for music. The other 2 are useless while trading. That's for trading though. When I made the decision to go full time, I knew I was about to go off the chain with research. And sifting between spreadsheets, a platform to see multiple timeframes for a pattern to backtest. My attention span is short, I'll lose my train of thought before I open the other tab to input data. But the main reason was for research. It's such a time saver and is a headache repellant when doing research while everything is laid out in front of you. Now that I have a system. I'll most likely be treating myself to 2 ultrawides for Christmas.

As always, thank you to everybody who takes time out to message me and letting me know some people read these and show appreciation. I would say, "Good luck" but there is no luck in trading. Just statistics. Remember that!
In conclusion: Yes. Full time trading is possible, depending where you live/monthly expenses and obligations. You're more likely to become a profitable trader than a professional athlete. There is a level of uncertainty each day, perhaps each week, doubtful each month, and definitely not each year. If I ever want a raise, I just consult my business plan and financials, then decide if I can handle it mentally. If you have medical issues, get a part time job for the benefits. If you're healthy, just be careful.
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All the best!
-CJT2013

I posted this yesterday morning (UK time) but after 5 hours or so, pennystocks deleted the original post. I had a message to share it on here too, so here it is!
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This is my first time posting a DD post – a friend of mine who moderates on SPACs has shared some analysis I have written previously, but I’m keen to share this here, and see if there is any appetite for sharing my own personal written DD I have on the 30 stocks I have across a number of different portfolios.
I have modified this format, as it was originally a script for a video which I created on the stock. If you prefer to listen – check it out here: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw
Some of the market stats (market cap, current multiples, etc.) are correct as of Feb-06, and clearly a little outdated since the price movements.
Not a financial advisor, do your own DD. I am long HITI and have an expectation of a long term hold on this stock.
Overview

• High Tide Canada-based cannabis retail company, operating under multiple brands. It operates under 3 core divisions:

1. Brick and mortar retail – 4 key brands with just under 70 locations in Canada. Brands include: Canna Cabana, New Leaf, Meta Cannabis and Kushbar. Forecast to have around 115 stores by end of 2021
2. Online retail – has 2 brands, both of which attract millions of viewers per month – Grasscity.com and CBDcity.com
3. Wholesale – manufacturer of paraphernalia in US and Canada. Number of products are branded with various celebrities, Snoop Dogg, Paramount Pictures, Trailer Park Boys and many more

• Has good c-level execs and experienced executive board; hold significant stake in the business. CEO Raj Grover holds just over 21% of the shares
• Currently has a market cap of around $280m. Still significant upside to the valuation – see analysis later in post

Investment Merits
Very strong market growth:

• Business has demonstrated growth both organically (through new store openings, more online sales and greater wholesale sales), as well as inorganically through M&A
• Growth in markets which High Tide has a physical presence in is expected to be very strong. North American cannabis market (Canada and US) is forecast to grow by 30% a year to 2027 (source: research and markets)
• Analysts covering High Tide are forecasting growth in excess of this, which is positive to see and implies capturing market share
• New markets / geographies ‘opening up’, legalizing and regulating cannabis is also an exciting and realistic prospect for incremental growth:

1. The US federal legalization debate is on the table
2. Many other countries are considering this too and High Tide is well positioned for these; this is catalyzed by the fact that government debt has increased significantly as part of the response to the COVID-19 health crisis. This needs to be repaid somehow, and increasing tax rates on existing taxes is an unpopular political move. Finding new tax revenues is a more palatable way of increasing tax revenues for governments. This is especially important in countries where elections are upcoming.

• Personally I do expect to see this accelerate the agenda for the regulation and legalization of cannabis in many new countries
• Whilst predominantly Canada and US based, High Tide does have presence in some markets where cannabis is not regulated or legalized, the UK for example (~10% of Grasscity sales are made here) and so it is well positioned with a strong and established brand to capitalize on this opportunity, when / if the market ‘opens up’

Regulation

• High Tide benefits from the regulatory focus and overhang on the cannabis retail sector as it represents a strong barrier to entry, making it more challenging for new competitors to enter market
• Participants in the market need to have licenses and ensure consistent compliance with laws to continue operating – failure to comply can result in significant financial penalties
• Personally I normally don’t like investing into retail. There are usually fairly limited barriers to entry, minimal differentiation and negligible customer loyalty, however the cannabis market does have different characteristics in this respect and makes it a more compelling proposition
• Regulation also benefits those with scale, something High Tide has as the leading player in the market. It costs money to obtain and retain licences to operate and it costs money to ensure compliance with all the laws and regulations and that all staff are acting in accordance with these
• Some parallels in this respect which can be drawn to casino gaming in casinos; you don’t see new casinos popping up at the same rate which you see new restaurants or apparel stores opening

Demand

• There’s a lot to like about the demand dynamics for High Tide. It’s vice-nature means that demand is less correlated to disposable incomes. Given where we are in economic cycle, especially important consideration
• For those doubting this, check alcohol, tobacco or gambling expenditure across economic cycles historically, for a proxy

Strong performance throughout COVID-19 crisis

• Despite heavy weighting towards brick and mortar, (the most hard hit part of retail) it has effectively managed the shift to online, which is a positive
• Has relied on government support and financial assistance in the form of job retention schemes (address in more detail later in post)
• This demonstrates management are capable and have effectively navigated the challenging situation

Data

• Massively summarized from the video, (and my video on KERN) so check that out if interested in this point, however, they have unique access to supply chain data which could be monetized effectively and generate strong levels of recurring revenues
• Other established sectors have a trusted party with such unique access to data (e.g. alcohol, lithium, different foods, etc.) and the opportunity here is enormous
• I would like to see High Tide capitalize on this

Forecasts financials & analysts

• Currently 2 analysts covering High Tide, both have a buy rating on the business
• Their coverage is slightly outdated (expect this being updated soon and a further catalyst for positive price action) and their price targets are 60c; at the time their reports were published, they were forecasting a 4x upside (HITI was trading at ~15c)
• Same analysts also forecasting strong growth - 77% CAGR to 2022. They are forecasting revenues of around $250m and EBITDA of $46m. A reminder here, these are professional analysts, not YouTube students – these come from their financial models, the assumptions of which are discussed with management

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https://preview.redd.it/9ft3iuw6zmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=44f5a24a035466bac6e9e72c70eb1edcadf5091d
Valuation

• Going to go quick here, its explained more slowly in the video but High Tide is currently valued at a significant discount to the other listed peers
• Looking at EV / FY+1 Sales multiples – EBITDA not meaningful as some of the peer group are EBITDA negative and High Tide itself has only recently become EBITDA positive

https://preview.redd.it/83j8aqdkzmg61.png?width=342&format=png&auto=webp&s=f06ec34f6de10eeae049710dd59c494f6ef697c9

• Personally, I think Planet13 is the most comparable given its business model
• Taking both Planet13 multiple and peer group average multiple, this is then applied to High Tide’s forecast FY+1 sales to calculate an enterprise value – this is adjusted for net debt to get to a market capitalization and then divided by the share count to get an implied share price
• The table below shows the implied stock price valuations from this analysis

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https://preview.redd.it/1z2ap11mzmg61.png?width=406&format=png&auto=webp&s=775ddc0c9d7e99412dbb4eb1fbbf8ed4645bc235
NB – assumed the following:

1. Net debt will change in coming year given the capital structure and a large number of convertible notes – this has been ignored given it will have small impact on the price
2. The share count will change as a result of dilution from various instruments – if this bothers you massively then look at the valuation discount on the basis of the enterprise value as it does not impact this (and only slightly on the market cap given minimal impacts to cash from instrument execution, etc.)
3. Not accounting for any stock split, consolidation or any other M&A deals
4. The FY21 financials are on the basis of the mean broker estimates from Thomson Reuters – Seeking Alpha has different and slightly outdated ones

Investment Risks & Mitigants / Outstanding DD points
Exposure to changing regulation

• US is only a small part of the market which High Tide addresses, while a change in regulation would have a big impact on the company, currently it is unlikely this would happen, given the discussions about potential federal legalization
• Canada regulation is established and not going anywhere
• Other countries likely to legalize and regulate cannabis, as outlined earlier

Dilution

• No escaping that there will be some significant dilution for shareholders, as pointed out in the table below, but this should be already priced into the stock
• Potential that new equity issuances could occur to help finance growth, but provided this growth is delivered, it should be accretive for the stock price

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https://preview.redd.it/n8dzmapozmg61.png?width=602&format=png&auto=webp&s=12e0e8bbd93f0c5c17920e7a5c5fad2559cc8bf0
Potentially misleading cost basis information

• A risk that investors need to be aware with for all companies which have relied on government financial support during COVID-19 measures. Such support has resulted in the number of businesses going bankrupt decreasing massively – this is at a lower level than it ever normally is and is masking some real underlying issues within companies. As investors we need to be open eyed about this
• As High Tide has benefited from support in the form of the Canada’s Emergency Wage Support scheme, there is the risk that once this is lifted it may become apparent that the cost base has not been effectively managed
• Personally, I think this is mitigated by the synergy analysis conducted as part of the M&A. A full cost base analysis would have been conducted to calculate the potential $8.4m synergies so strong likelihood that this is under control, but should keep on our radar and reassess

Marketing expenses and celebrity licenses

• Need more information to ascertain whether these are underpinned by a compelling ROI. Seen a lot of people suggest this is a great positive, but the impact on sales volumes from these is unknown, as is the terms of these license agreements (e.g. split between upfront fee vs. volume-based fee)
• No escaping the fact that it is an increased cost and so need to understand the ROI this generates to determine whether it really is compelling
• Is there really more demand to pay a premium for Snoop Dogg bongs, Guns n Roses papers, Cheech & Chong grinders, or whatever they may be?
• So far management have suggested this has been helpful in driving new sales, but this is something to dig into more

If you want to check out the video, it would be appreciated: https://youtu.be/qsjwU7kkPsw

Hello, I think about trying myself out in a card counting thus i have some questions about whether or not I'm understanding things correctly. I'll be really grateful for the answers :) After all the things I want to ask there will be some additional info about some things I want to share because some of the questions may seem a bit odd. It's (as, well, everything in this post) optional and has pretty much nothing to do with counting. So the questions are as follows:
1) Rules are as follows: 6D, 3:2, ENHC, S17, DA2, SP3, SPA3 (4 hands in total), DAS, NHSA, SURRXA, ES10 (I belive if it's ENHC it's always an early surrender? Anyway you can surrender anything except an dealer's Ace upcard). Penetration is 5:6. I belive that's are some great rules but I can't calculate the exact house edge under this specific set of rules. I belive it's around 0.2%. Is there anyway to calculate the exact house edge? I've been searching for a different calculators but didn't find any that could calculate all of the above. Also tried searching how different rules affected house edge and calculating all of this myself, but failed again.
2) Is it worth to adjust my betting strategy if I want to use the exact house edge? Just as an example: if the real house edge is 0.2% should I try to calculate all the different bet sizes for a Kelly betting? By that I mean that at TC 0 house edge is 0.2%, TC 1 -0.3%, TC 2 -0.8% and so on?
3) About betting and how I understand it. So the best way to maximize your bankroll growth rate while having the lowest risk of ruin is to use full Kelly which gives you 13.53% RoR. For a part time player I belive that's acceptable. So the absolute minimum of a bankroll I'd need will be 1k$ (min bet is 5$ and 5/0.005=1000, right?) IF I intent to play only at TC 2+ which means wonging a lot. So at TC 2 I start betting the table minimum and incrementing my bets by 5$ for each next TC. I belive that would also decrease ror but I'm not sure by how much. Also If I want to play from the start of the shoe and let's say wong out at TC -3 (using flooring for handling non integer TCs so it's more like -2 "actually") and my first raise being 10$ at TC 2 while betting only half a Kelly which would give me 1.83% ror (according to a table I've found on the internet) I'll need a 4k$ bankroll?
4) Deck estimation. I'm really bad at it and so I decided to try to implement a side count of all the cards dealt but it's really hard and Colin from BJA said in one of his videos that's it's really not worth it. After I found out that the average hand consists of 2.7 cards I've decided to keep a side count but all the hands played which means that I decrease my divisor by half a deck for every 10 hands played which gives us ~27 cards. I belive that with this method it's better to use half Kelly betting because we are worried about skyrocketing our ror by overbetting because of the varience of the shoe and how the game is going. Half a Kelly gives us 3/4 of a growth rate with under 2% ror and overbetting half a Kelly is actually going closer to betting a full Kelly which only increases our growth rate and all of that applies to a full Kelly which means that overbetting a full Kelly decreases our growth rate while making our ror even worse than 13.5%. The real question is: is this method an OK to use? Would dispersion of amount of cards per hand really affect the overbetting? It's an important question because I don't think I'll be able to try half Kelly before at least 2k$ bankroll. And for me it's a lot of money. More about all the unimportant stuff later on.
So thanks for reading all of this, now I'll tell some things that aren't really about blackjack. Feel free to skip all of this and I'd be really grateful for all the answers :)
I'm 22 and I live in Ukraine. I'm a croupier myself :) My english is kinda rusty but I belive you can forgive me for that :) In Ukraine casinos are only beginning to open because all of the gambling things were not legal till right the recent days. Minimum age to start playing is 21. In worst case 12 hours of dealer's life (1 work day) is 25$+70% of the tips that are being split. If you've read the betting strategy for a full Kelly and min bet of 5 at TC 2+ you could be surprised by the amount of EV I'm in theory generating but if it'll be worth at least 5$/hour (against 2.1$/hour as a croupier not including tips) and thinking of it as a part time thing I belive that's worth a shot. Thanks for your attention, time and (I hope) answers :) First time using reddit as well :)

The SPAC FEAC and mobile gaming company Skillz announced a merger agreement on Sep. 1, 2020. Merger date is slated for end of this quarter, so should be coming up soon. I expect FEAC will be 2021's DKNG. Here's why...
What do we know about FEAC? They're the same team that brought Draftkings public (via DEAC), which you may recognize as the single most successful post-merger company of the last 30 SPACs.
What do we know about Skillz? From the company website:

Skillz is the leading mobile games platform that connects players in fair, fun, and meaningful competition. The Skillz platform helps developers build multi-million dollar franchises by enabling social competition in their games. Leveraging its patented technology, Skillz hosts billions of casual esports tournaments for millions of mobile players worldwide, and distributes millions in prizes each month. Skillz has earned recognition as one of Fast Company’s Most Innovative Companies, CNBC’s Disruptor 50, Forbes’ Next Billion-Dollar Startups, and the #1 fastest-growing company in America on the Inc. 5000.

Basically, they host approx. 30 games on their mobile platform, users pay ~$0.60 to enter and winners collect prize money. Revenue for Skillz comes in the form of a "take rate" (i.e. rake in casino terms), but basically just a percentage of the prize money. Currently their take rate is 14%, increasing to 15% in 2020, and planning on increasing to 20% by 2024.
Some valuation numbers: The merges implies a valuation for Skillz of $3.6 billion, or 6.3x projected 2022 revenue. Total PIPE is $159 million, representing just 4.3% of the company valuation. Share terms: "Paradise, Chafkin, substantially all of the existing Skillz stockholders as well as Flying Eagle’s sponsor have agreed to a 24-month lock-up, subject to quarterly releases of 1.5 million shares per holder commencing 180 days following the closing".
The investor presentation provides some truly mindboggling numbers, summarized here:

• 80% YOY Revenue Growth
• 2020E Revenue = $225 million (confirmed in Nov.)
• 2021E Revenue = $366 million
• 2022E Revenue = $555 million
• 2020E-2022E CAGR = 57%!! Compare this to DKNG (45%), SHOP (40%), MELI (38%), SNAP (35%), ROKU (35%).
• Under expected revenue assumptions, Skillz trades at a Enterprise Value/2022E Revenue multiple of just 6.2x. Compare this to SHOP (27.9x), DKNG (12.4x), SNAP (9.5x), MELI (8.9x). Assuming the market prices in a Skillz EV/2022ER multiple comparable to DKNG, this would amount to a valuation of closer to $6.9 billion, ~2x the current valuation of $3.6 billion
• Skillz revenue growth in 2021E is expected to be 63%, almost double the expected revenue growth of 33% of comparable companies (calculated as the median).
• GROSS MARGIN: 96%! "Close competitors" are WIX (72%), PINS (68%), and ETSY (67%). Even DKNG only yields 49%.

Ok, so the games are stupid, right? Of course they are, they're mobile games. But you know what else is stupid? Candy Crush and that crap averages 37 minutes of user interaction per day. What does Skillz get? 62 MINUTES. The games are like crack. Even the Chinese superhack TikTok only gets 52 min/day, democracy-destroying Facebook gets 41 min/day, compilation fails/ASMdiy tutorial/pseudo-porn website Youtube gets 30 min/day. Mobile gaming accounts for ~45% of the entire gaming industry (in 2019) and is estimated to be $68 billion, with a CAGR of 20%.
Why I like FEAC/Skillz: With interest rates at all time lows (and not expected to change until at least 2023), cash is cheap and companies can borrow basically unlimited money to fuel exponential growth (and then probably just inflate away debt). Combine this with a complete paradigm shift in international business and industry driven by the tech sector, we are in the golden age (also probably bubble) of hypergrowth companies. IMO, Skillz is an incredibly rare opportunity in terms of early entry into a potentially explosive stock that is already in YOY hypergrowth. Many SPACs are incredibly speculative, dependent on highly theoretical FY2021 and FY2022 revenue growth. With Skillz, although definitely still speculative, you have the opportunity to invest in a relatively overlooked SPAC that is already in hypergrowth with EV/R multiples well below similar peers.
IMO, FEAC/Skillz is the white whale of the current SPAC crop. Skillz games have a crack-like addiction, they're in hypergrowth NOW, have absolutely insane margins (96%), and don't require a massive shift in an entire industry.
How to play it: This could be a little tricky. I'm not sure if there will actually be a significant pump riding up to the ticker change given retail's focus on EV/cloud/SaaS these days. Plus, mobile gaming doesn't have the same allure that sports betting does. Everyone and their mom has heard of DraftKings and Fan Duel, helped out by the Last Week Tonight segment and tons of Youtube ads. However, the growth numbers + revenue margins should be extremely enticing to fund managers, so I hope that large-block buying will increase heading towards the merger.
That being said, it might take until the merger or even early 2021 to get some traction. In any case, I don't think FEAC is a good place to just park cash in hopes of a pop. For that, probably just better to either flip other SPACs on announcement or buy into growth companies. For FEAC, I think it's best to buy in with the plan of holding until at least the first ER, and then decide where to go from there. I'm not going to tell you "THis Is deFInitLey thE NexxT apPLE" *rocketemojirocketemoji*. However, I think that FEAC/Skillz will either have a strong multi-year run after merger, or it will flounder in the sub-$20 range in which case I'll move on. The major catalyst for determining what we can expect from the stock is what happens when the merger date is announced (supposed to be in the next few weeks). If there's a BIG pop (like, +25%), then I'll be very confident the post-merger stock will go on a tear. If reaction is more muted, then we'll have to wait until after the ticker change to see if the market prices in expected revenue growth. If any significant negative press comes out similar to NKLA, I'll trim my position by ~80% immediately.
My positions:

• Units (FEAC/U) - 568; Commons (FEAC) - 2,500; MV ~ $42k. Will buy in another 1000-2000 shares if momentum begins to pick up when the merger date is announced.
• Will add some options if the price drops a bit, but they're pretty expensive right now due to recent high volatility in both FEAC price and SPACs overall. Debating getting some deep OTM Feb calls as lotto tickets.
• Will plan on trimming the position by at least ~50% if the stock price stagnates around the first ER.

Disclaimer: Do your own DD. Skillz numbers look amazing, but at the end of the day they're still just a mobile game company so investing in FEAC definitely has the potential to backfire. Ok, roast away.
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Edit: u/iamgettingbuckets noted in a comment here that he had a sketchy experience applying for a job with Skillz that required actually playing on their app before being able to submit an application. He later deleted the comment and then sent me a DM because his story was anecdotal and u/ImBloom09 didn't find the same thing. However, I still think this is a good first-hand experience story for people to know and consider prior to investing, so I'm including it here as an edit. The FEAC team is the same management that took DKNG public via DEAC, so I'm assuming (hoping) that their reputation from that deal implies they've done the appropriate vetting of Skillz prior to announcing the merger.
Edit 2: S-4/A filed right before market close the day I made this post. Merger vote set for Dec. 16. Commons +20% on news.

Winter had sucked all the color out of the world.
The prairie in the glory of midsummer had been a surge of green, summer winds sending pulses through the tall grass, causing it to wave like an underwater kelp forest in a strong current. Now, however, it had relinquished its blooming majesty, its former radiance dulled to straw the color of a deerhide. The flowerheads were stripped of their colorful identities, appearing like sepia photographs of themselves; the ghosts of summer past. The sweetclover, which had extended from one horizon to the other back in June, covering the prairie in a blanket of gold, was now skeletonized, its broken-off stems rolling like tumbleweeds in the winter gales.
Trevor was over it. Another South Dakota winter, another four months until the snows would cease and the ice would melt in the creek. In March and April, the spring blizzards would bury the world and on the subsequent sunny days, the combination of blue sky and white land would be startling, like finding oneself living in the center of a bicolored flag.
But for now, a capricious midwinter thaw had left snowdrifts only in the prairie draws, on the north-facing ridges, in the shadows of the ponderosas that speckled the hills. And around the trailer, mud. In a few nights, a deep freeze would turn the sides of the tire ruts into knife edges, testing the suspension of any vehicle that took the approach too fast. Still, that was better than the loamy mud, which could imprison even a 4x4 until freezing cold or drying winds finally freed it.
The view from the front porch could be gorgeous. Back in July, when the church group from Virginia had constructed a wheelchair ramp for the trailer, the evening sun had set the prairie on fire, its light reflected by a thunderstorm hanging in the sky as if by a puppeteer’s strings. “God almighty,” the youth pastor had exclaimed. But now, grays and browns mingled in a decidedly drab palette. Over at the little bird feeder, the goldfinches were no longer yellow-and-black exclamation points, but had acquiesced to dullness, dressed for a time of year when vibrant color seemed to be outlawed by some unseen authority.
Trevor stared at the expanse of mud that spooled out from in front of the trailer and unwound into a ribbon that led over the hill toward the old sundance ground and, eventually, the paved road. He wondered if he would get out today. Always a calculation this time of year. Driving on the muddy channel that was his approach was out of the question; he would set a course across the grass, which would provide enough barrier to keep his tires from sinking in again. Two-tracks radiating out onto the prairie showed how many times he and his family had taken this course of action since the last snow.
It felt ironic that their approach took them by far the long way around – heading north to go south; harder than it needed to be, like so much of life around here. But the way south was blocked by Roanhorse Creek. This wasn’t all bad; the creek provided nice wading in the summer and water for the horses for most of the year. It also gave rise to the only trees on the property, although the cottonwoods whose leaves whispered in the summer breezes now stood dumb and impassive, and resembled skeletal wraiths at nighttime.
A horse would make it, of course. He could saddle up the buckskin, ride cross-country and be in town in twenty minutes. But that would be silly…he snorted at the ludicrousness of this thought. First of all, he had to go way beyond town today. And even if he were just going to his old job at the tribal building, was he supposed to just hitch it up outside for the day? Tie its reins to one of the smokers’ benches by the entrance? What was this, 1895? No, better not to risk TȟatéZi getting stolen or having some gang sign spraypainted on it or some shit. Besides, he needed to pull into his job interview looking halfway decent, not spattered with mud and smelling like horse sweat.
Trevor regarded his truck, sitting smack in the middle of the sloppy mess. Fuck, he thought.
Still, he didn’t really have a choice today. No job interview, no job. No job, no funds. Another calculation, but this one was straightforward. He went back into the trailer and made his way to his bedroom in the back, passing his brothers in the living room. One was sleeping on the couch and the other was crashed out in the recliner, oblivious to the flickering hearth of the muted TV. Let ‘em sleep today, Trevor thought.
In the bedroom, he stepped across piles of clothes – some clean, some dirty – and over the miscellany of his life; a pile of old DVDs, a defunct gaming console, a canister of Bugler and squares of broadcloth for the tobacco ties he was supposed to make for ceremony, a scattering of empty Mountain Dew cans, a 24-pack of ramen, a basketball.
He hunted around in his closet for the dressy clothes that he knew were there. He had worn them once, on the day of his high school graduation, three years before. And there they were; a purple button-down shirt, a solid black tie, and black chinos. Further rummaging found him a pair of brown loafers and a tan braided belt. He would look sharp for this interview – couldn’t hurt.
Trevor took a quick shower. The hot water always took forever to come and once it did, didn’t last long. He got dressed hurriedly, glad the tie that had come as a set with the shirt was a clip-on, and ran a comb through his hair. It wasn’t long enough to do much with other than backcomb it a little with some hair gel, but he figured that looked better than not. He considered putting in big stud earrings to look extra fly, but decided again it; might not be the right look for the occasion.
Now fully dressed and ready, Trevor took stock of his appearance. His summer tan was long gone and his skin was as pale as the white kids he had met during his one semester of college. The same change of season that had desaturated the prairie and garbed the birds in dull colors had undone all those days spent out in the badlands sun – working with the horses, swimming at the dam, helping keep fire at sundance. Too many French fur traders in his lineage. He recalled the book that his eighth grade teacher had assigned them – Part-time Indian or something – and thought, Yup, that’s me. Indian in the summer and wašiču in the winter, like changing plumage.
Trevor envied his brothers their melanin. He had learned that word in one of his college classes and now thought of it nearly every day. Travis was a rich brown complexion even in the dark days of midwinter. Trenton was in between the two but had jet-black Lakota hair and definitely looked “ethnic,” enough to be followed around stores in the border towns. Trevor knew it was his privilege to be exempt from such treatment, but it bugged him nonetheless. He hadn’t asked to be light-skinned. His brothers called him žiží – a reference to his tawny hair. They had gotten into scraps over this, and Trevor even bloodied Travis’ nose in one such altercation. Once one of them had even called Trevor a “half-breed” but Trevor retorted with “Fuck you, boy, you got the same blood as me. Fuckin’ dumbass.” This seemed to put the issue to rest.
Trevor’s brief stint at college had been at an out-of-state school, which now struck him as an ill-advised decision. At least South Dakotans had some experience with Natives. Even the East River kids had at least crossed paths with one at some point, and didn’t think of Indians as something from the pages of a dime novel. Trevor was the first Native in many years – maybe ever – to attend the small-town liberal arts college in a neighboring state. He thought the fact that the college was reasonably selective would mean that the students were smart enough not to ask dumb questions. He was wrong.
The queries were predictable enough, clichéd even; Are you really Indian? (Yes) Do you speak your language? (No) Did you get in because you’re Indian? (Who knows? I’m pretty smart and got good grades.) Does the college have admissions quotas for Indians? (If it did, you’d think more would go here.) What’s it like on the reservation? (I don’t know; different.) Do you prefer “Native American”? (I find the question annoying, to be honest.) Do you like Leslie Marmon Silko? (Who?) Have you seen Dances with Wolves? (Some of it.) Do you know a guy from Pine Ridge named Verdell? He used to work with my dad. (Maybe) His last name was something Horse. Running Horse? (No)
Fielding these questions was exhausting and added another layer of weariness and alienation to his college experience.
He found himself having to answer such inquiries from his roommate, classmates, professors, his R.A…Sometimes they were cloaked in well-meaning concern (I bet you get tired of all these questions, huh?) but they were always there. Most evenings, Trevor would retreat to his room and call his mom. His roommate, Skyler, a cross-country runner who was handsome in an unspectacular way and who monitored his water intake religiously, was hardly ever around. He seemed to have no trouble making friends in college and reveled in the social opportunities around him.
In his phone calls back home, Trevor found himself experiencing a homesickness that inhabited the pit of his stomach like a hunger pang. He had never been gone from home for that long. Really, his only trip away had been the summer before his senior year, to a weeklong STEM camp for Native kids that one of the state colleges had put on. But that had been with a half dozen other students from his high school. Here he was alone.
The subjects of their conversations would leave Trevor feeling a gravitational pull toward home: Trenton got into a fight at school and got suspended. Travis is drinking again. We had sweat for your auntie because they have to amputate her leg after all. Those dogs were back again. Everett hit $200 at the casino on Tuesday night but of course he put it all back in. They’re having a basketball tournament for that boy who got paralyzed in that wreck. Our hot water heater went out but uncle came and fixed it. They still haven’t found that Two Arrows girl that went missing. Travis wants to go up on the hill this spring – maybe that will get him to quit drinking.
Good news, bad news, mundane news…The latter tugged at him the most. Like many who grew up on Pine Ridge, he had a love-hate relationship with the reservation. It was the home of his people after all, and could be so beautiful (“God’s country,” as it was called by even those who had no time for the white man’s God). But the hardships, the tragedies, the death…it all wore away at your spirit, hardened you. Still, the news of day-to-day life going on in his absence; a school powwow, a bingo tournament, tribal council drama, rumors of a Dairy Queen opening. It made him miss home in an ineffable way.
The last vestige of his indecision evaporated after a particular conversation in the lounge of his dorm. He had been sitting on a beanbag chair, discussing random topics with two friends (at least, he considered them friends, in some ill-defined adolescent way). They had all left a dull party that hadn’t livened up even after a couple of drinks, but still felt heady and obligated to prolong the night a little longer. So, they were shooting the shit, in a garishly-lit common space that smelled of burnt popcorn, and Trevor was feeling rather collegiate. An off-campus party, late-night conversation; weren’t these the trappings of university life that he had seen in teen movies, if a much more prosaic version?
Kayleigh, tipsy off Jäger bombs, started the chain of events that would unravel his college experience with a simple, but pointed question: “How Indian are you, anyway?”
Colton snorted at this comment. “Kay, you can’t just ask that!” But he was clearly more amused than disapproving.
“You mean like my blood quantum or what?” Trevor asked.
“Is that what you guys call it?” said Kay, now playing the innocent party. “I just mean, like, you say you’re Indian, I mean like I know you are, like, I know you are on paper…” The alcohol was causing her to trip over her words but she plowed on. “I mean like, okay, if I were to like, run into you on the street…” Kay was now gesturing expansively, as if the meaning of what she was saying wasn’t explicit from words alone. “Like, I wouldn’t be like, ‘Damn, look at that Indian,’ right? I’d just assume you were a white guy. I mean you know what I mean? Ugh, I’m not making sense.”
She was making perfect sense. Colton looked embarrassed, and for a second, Trevor thought he might shut Kay down. But instead, his inhibition similarly worn down by a few shots of German 70-proof, he followed suit. “I think what Kay’s drunk ass is trying to say is, like, your ancestors are Indians, right, like in the history books. Like Geronimo or whatever. But do you consider yourself one of them? Or are you, like, their descendant?”
Trevor could feel the ball of rage growing within him, a sea urchin radiating spikes in his gut. Stop talking, he thought. Just stop talking.
Colton continued, heedlessly. “Okay, so like I’m Irish but I’m not like Irish Irish, like a leprechaun or some shit. Like my ancestors…”
Trevor stood up, his fists balled. He was now stone-cold sober but his anger was its own intoxicant. “It’s none of your fucking business. It’s none of your business what the fuck I am!” He was shouting; he couldn’t help it. He picked up a half-empty can of PBR and threw it at the wall, slamming the door to the lounge on his way out. The sudsy contents of the can leaked onto the ugly orange dorm carpet, as Kayleigh and Colton sat in stunned silence.
“Jesus,” said Colton finally. “Just trying to ask an honest question.”
After that, Trevor had holed up in his room for a few days, skipping classes and avoiding other students. When he told his mom he was dropping out, she hardly sounded surprised. He knew she would be glad to have him back home; the prodigal son returning. Trevor, the one who had his shit together, who had gone to a STEM camp and was almost salutatorian. He knew she thought that once he got back, he could do what she couldn’t; get Travis on a better path, bring another income to the household, fix what needed to be fixed around the trailer, shoot at the stray dogs when they came around. It would all fall to him. His failure was their blessing; they would lean on him as long as he could stand.
So here we fucking go, he now thought, patting his gel-stiffened hair and giving himself one last hazel-eyed glance in the mirror. Gotta get that bread. His brief stint at the tribal building hadn’t panned out. He was a good worker but wet weather made his road too sloppy to get out easily. Too many latenesses had translated into a pink slip. “Shit man we all got bad roads. Gotta leave earlier,” his boss had said.
So, lesson learned, he was giving himself extra time getting ready for this interview. Really, the lady had just told him to come by “around mid-morning,” so he’d probably be okay. The job was off-rez, down at the county livestock auction and sale barn in one of the closest border towns, “white towns,” as Ridgers called it. It was mostly going to be paperwork – inventory and itemizing and that kind of shit – but it was decent pay and Trevor hoped that he could transition over to working with the animals before long. On most days, he preferred their company to dumbass people.
Grabbing his bag, Trevor stuck the loafers inside with his other miscellany. He would need to wear his cowboy boots across the muddy expanse between the bottom step of the porch and the door to his Blazer so he jammed his feet into them. Outside, he walked gingerly so as not to stain his black slacks with muck. Once in the driver’s seat, he figured he would leave the boots on for the drive, since they were already smearing mud on the floor liner, and in case he got stuck and needed to get out. Trevor knew that the people who worked at the sale barn were as countrified as he was and wouldn’t judge muddy boots under most circumstances, but he also knew that being from Pine Ridge meant he had to put his best foot forward, literally in this case.
Trevor fired up the Blazer, put it in four low, and gunned it. His tires found grip and he jerked along, slimy divots of earth spattering his windows and roof like hail. His windshield wipers left a pasty smear that obscured much of his view, but he practically knew the way by feel. As soon as he could, he bumped up onto the grass, gopher holes and clumps of prairie bluestem jolting his ride, testing what was left of his suspension. When he finally hit the pavement, the smoothness was startling as it always was, like a TV being suddenly muted, like silence after a door slamming.
He cruised through town, passing the gas station, the other gas station, the commod building, the quonset hut, the old BIA headquarters…and turned south into Nebraska. He tried to ignore the persistent squeal under the hood that had gotten worse lately. The overcast sky reflected the dullness of the land – as below, so above – and Trevor alternated between zoning out and counting hawks on telephone poles. A handful of miles south of the border, the vehicle gave a jolt and Trevor felt a temporary loss of control. He hit the brakes and steered toward the shoulder, but the Blazer was suddenly steering like an army tank. Fuck, he whispered.
Once he wrestled Blazer off the road, Trevor got out and popped the hood. He already knew what he would find under the rising steam. “Fucking serpentine belt,” he hissed to the universe. Trevor was good with cars but he didn’t have the tools for this fix. Luckily, he thought, out here in the country, somebody who did would be by soon. Lots of Natives on this road, maybe even a cousin would happen by who could at least give him a ride to town. Trevor thought of calling his dad’s brother Everett on his cell, but figured he’d give it a bit. He hated the thought of owing Uncle Ev anything.
Sure enough, in a few minutes, a gunmetal gray truck passed by slowly, hit a u-turn, and pulled up behind him. Trevor felt a twinge of envy over this late-model Dodge Ram MegaCab with duallies. It had county plates on it, so the cowboy-hatted driver was a local guy, and as he got out, his Carhartt overalls and mud-caked boots identified him as a rancher.
“Trouble?” MegaCab asked, giving Trevor an easy smile.
“Serpentine belt busted,” said Trevor, unconsciously smoothing out his rez accent in favor of a more neutral affectation. Code-switching – another term he had learned at college (by the professor who asked him if he prefers “Native American”).
“No shit, huh?” MegaCab considered this information. “I got nothing for that but I could give you a ride somewhere. You call anyone? Someone coming after you?”
“No,” said Trevor. “I’m trying to get down to the sale barn for a job interview.”
MegaCab looked at Trevor as if for the first time. “Oh ok so that’s why you’re all fancied up. Well, hop in if you don’t mind leaving it here.”
Trevor considered this. He was off the rez so there was less of a chance that the Blazer would end up with busted windows or slashed tires. And he was eager to get his interview over and done with.
Before he could answer, MegaCab added “I have to stop in Whiteclay first but then I’ll take you down.”
This was only a few miles out of the way so Trevor assented and climbed into the rancher’s idling behemoth. It still retained some new-truck smell, mixed with a tinge of manure and rich earth. Really, it was almost luxurious.
MegaCab flipped a u-ey again and headed back north toward Whiteclay. Formerly notorious for copious alcohol sales to people from the dry reservation whose border it sat on, Whiteclay’s package stores had been shuttered after the state had revoked their liquor licenses following years of protests over their depredatory business model. Now, it was just a town of a couple small stores and fewer than a dozen permanent residents, its streets empty of vagrants, its ghosts banished.
“So, you from Hot Springs?”
Trevor momentarily wondered where this question had come from, and then remembered that he had 27-plates on the Blazer – Fall River County, a relic of when he bought the car from a white lady over there. He had kept the off-county registration because the plates were far less likely to get you pulled over off-rez than the infamous 65s of Oglala Lakota County.
MegaCab continued without waiting for an answer. “I used to go up to Hot Springs a lot when my dad was in the V.A. hospital up there. Nice town.”
“Yup, it’s pretty nice,” said Trevor, wondering if he would have to sustain this small talk the whole way.
Luckily, MegaCab took it from there, reminiscing about his high school football team dealing Hot Springs a particularly lopsided loss, and then they were at Whiteclay. Trevor played around on his phone while his driver of the moment went into the little grocery store. He looked up his old roommate Skyler on Facebook (why, he didn’t know; certainly not to friend him) and then Googled “Pine Ridge South Dakota Dairy Queen” just to see if there was any truth to that rumor.
MegaCab returned with some mail – Trevor had forgotten that there was a little post office in there – and they turned south toward Rushville.
Two miles and five hawks-on-telephone-poles into their trip, MegaCab got chatty again:
“I still can’t believe that the state revoked the liquor licenses. They had no legal right to do that of course, but just like everyone else these days, they bowed to the pressure from liberal special interest groups. Those store owners – my brother was one of them – followed the damn law to a T but still got their rights taken away. They’re the real victims in all of this.”
Trevor, whose father was found dead in Whiteclay when Trevor was ten years old, didn’t answer.
“You know it’s just going to push the problem down the road. These Indians are gonna get their liquor one way or another. You guys must see that all the time up in Hot Springs.”
These Indians. You guys. Trevor suddenly recognized MegaCab’s presumption, and wondered when if he should correct it.
“If they wanted to buy millions of cans of beer in Whiteclay every year and drink themselves to death, shit, I say let ‘em. It’s a free country, right? Those AIM types are always going on about Native rights and shit, y’know? Well shit, you have the right to drink and die if you want. Not saying that I want that for those people or anything, but the nanny state can’t be protecting everyone from problems of their own making.”
Trevor, whose brother had first gotten jailed for drunk and disorderly at age 14, two years after their father died, said nothing.
MegaCab continued to rhapsodize about “the Indians” and their problems, adopting the tone of an expert, one who knew all about them. Trevor felt the blood rise to his face. Some coloration at least, he thought darkly. In the pit of his stomach, the sea urchin had returned to stab at his insides. What must it be like, he wondered, to live a life in which people aren’t constantly telling you who you are, naming your characteristics like symptoms, trying to trap you like a spirit in a photograph?
The Blazer came in sight on the shoulder ahead. “Can you let me out at my ride?” Trevor asked, his voice hardly recognizable to his own ear, like hearing himself talk underwater.
“Sure, you need to grab something out of it?” said MegaCab, reluctantly pausing his diatribe.
“No it’s okay,” replied Trevor, “I’m gonna call someone to come help me fix this after all.” He fiddled with his phone as if to underscore this intention.
“Well, if you’re sure,” said MegaCab. “And hey,” he added as Trevor stepped down onto the running board. “You be careful around here. One of these rezzers might see you here all by yourself and try to mess you or your car up. And watch out for drunk drivers. You just never know with these Indians.” MegaCab gave a serious nod to accentuate this show of concern. Then he wished Trevor luck and drove off.
Trevor watched the truck recede into the distance until it was merely a gray speck between the monochrome earth and the steely sky. He sat down in the cold front seat of the Blazer and looked into the rearview mirror. Hazel eyes stared back at him under a pale forehead. Fuck it, he thought; people are dumbasses. Let ‘em believe what they want; that he was from Hot Springs, that could be was related to that Apache, Geronimo, that he was only Indian on paper. Trevor saw what they didn’t; the hidden depths beneath the surface, and in their faces, in the spaces between their words, their ignorance displayed like a tattoo.
In another minute or two, he would call Uncle Ev for a ride. In another hour or two, he would be offered a job at the sale barn that would bring another income into his household (and buy him a new serpentine belt). In another day or two, he would finally finish the tobacco ties for ceremony, at which he would pray for Travis’ sobriety and his auntie’s diabetes. In another month or two, the lengthening of the days would be unmistakable.
Spring would come as it always had, first heralded by a single meadowlark piercing the predawn silence with his song. This would be followed by a green sprig on the prairie, pushing up, perhaps, through snow. Then a cluster of pasqueflowers appearing suddenly on a hillside, a skein of geese overhead, sheet lightning on the horizon. Small miracles, one after another. Finally, color would surge back into the world like paint scintillating on a canvas, causing goldfinches to glow like stars and evening thunderheads to stand like towering fires.
The brilliant Dakota sunlight would stoke the melanin in Trevor’s skin, and nobody would mistake who he was. He would go up on the hill for two days and nights with Travis that spring, and Trenton would keep fire for them. He would pray for the coming year, for the survival of his people, for enough blessings to outweigh the hardships. And there, among a sea of undulating green, facing the crimson blaze of sunrise, he would again know himself and find the strength to carry on, in the face of all the peculiar indignities of this world.