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Summary - Game developer with $450 million in revenue with $110M net profit valued at Price to Sales (P/S) ~4.2.
- Company seems reasonably valued, operating in growing mobile games market.
- Risk-reward ratio at current price is outstanding due to SPAC-merger rules with the cash NAV set at $10.
Not much information about this company, so I started writing my own research on the company. Here is the investor presentation:
https://nexters.com/images/inv_info/Nexters_Investor_Presentation.pdf If want to understand the valuation of the company, the risk/reward, and the potential I need to answer the following questions:
- What is Nexters Global?
- SPAC is a safe bet?
- Comparison with its competitors?
- $1.9B is cheap or expensive?
Let's begin!
1. What is Nexters Global?
Nexters Global is a fast-growing mobile game development company with
$450 million gross revenue* (2020), 85 million total game installs,
5.4 Million monthly active users, with
10x growth of revenue in the last 2 years. Already
profitable with $110 million net profit in 2020. The management has more than 10 years of experience in creating games. Located in Cyprus (Europe) with roots in Russia (a very strong IT region). They are well known for being in Game Development since early 2005 in the epicenter of the web, social and mobile game development.
https://preview.redd.it/juhbhhuwhmg61.png?width=640&format=png&auto=webp&s=529a0e927aa3bc3205430d97204d3d625f36fc8d Since the launch, the company has proven that it can develop, publish and use marketing to scale its games. With
37% of its revenue coming from the
US/Canada,
23% from Europe,
19% from Asia it is already an
international company.
\In the investor presentation Nexters Global states 310 million net revenue, as at the*
sec.gov reports it is more common (example) to use the gross revenue for gaming companies as their base metrics. That's why here and below I’m using gross revenue. Please see the spreadsheet below with a comparison to other companies. Further plans are:
https://preview.redd.it/t9kdphd0img61.png?width=994&format=png&auto=webp&s=b70e92455e253033e99a91b17b0a1f85012e1e5b - To increase the revenue of existing games (basically, double the revenue in 3 years).
- Launch new titles in 2021: 3 new games announced
- Working on the sequel of their best selling game "Hero Wars 2".
- Use cash to acquire other game developers with great games to amplify revenues using their expertise and marketing/production capabilities to make global hits.
2. SPAC is a safe bet?
There are so many SPACs, that we should be
very selective on what we choose to buy. To do that we need to check if the business is real.
There are different kind of risky SPAC’s on the market:
- Without product
- Without revenue
- Without an addressable market
- Without proof that they can scale
We need to verify that Nexters Global is not on that list. Let’s have a look at the company:
The product? Web, Social, Mobile Games. To check if their numbers are real simply open the game page in
App Store and
Google Play store.
Android Apps by NEXTERS GLOBAL LTD on Google Play Nexters Global LTD Apps on the App Store The top game has more than
50,000,000 installs with more than a
million positive reviews and an average
rating of 4.6. With other games/stores combined, it correlates with the company's stated 85 million installs.
https://preview.redd.it/jwh51gm2img61.png?width=735&format=png&auto=webp&s=428ec2dc85a4a6c1d51c67aa8fa1f7876edd3dab I like that I can see the numbers myself, and also can "touch" the product and how it works. it increases my confidence in owning the stock.
Actually, I have been playing their top-grossing game
Hero Wars for several months last year. And I loved it... loved it so much that I’ve spent around ~1000 dollars within 3 months. And I’ve seen players that spent much much more than me (higher ranked, had much more power and ranks). And there were so many players that they had to add new servers each week, or even daily.
The first impression is that I really like the product. I see how it works.
The revenue. It's huge. In the SPAC world, there are companies that can’t make revenue but predict that their revenue will go up 10-20-50x times in 3-5 years. Usually, such companies are SCAM as they mislead investors with revenue that will never happen.
On another side, Nexters Global
has already $450 million in revenue with a $110M profit. And the growth rate is
+177% YoY. And even the slowdown in growth means the actual
increase in revenue substantially, just by the magic of the compound growth.
I like the numbers very much here.
The addressable market How big is the addressable market? The World’s 2.7 Billion Gamers
Spent $175 Billion on Games in 2020; The Market Will Surpass $200 Billion by 2023. So Nexters Global is well-positioned in expanding market.
https://preview.redd.it/tf41au04img61.png?width=888&format=png&auto=webp&s=7547a1d3c2c8da43554a655d9b32bb4aaf4f2d97 Revenue geography shows that it is also diversified well. The company has proven that it can generate revenue all around the world, not just in its local market. That is very important in order to calculate the valuation of the company.
https://preview.redd.it/sxq08qg5img61.png?width=362&format=png&auto=webp&s=ed9b771d632268efb31d96d57c831d61d8caf12f But how long Nexters can generate revenue? Unlike the traditional PC gaming, where the peak of sales occurs after the launch of the game and then shrinks a lot, in the
online mobile game market - games
get updates each month/quarter to engage customers and make them stay in the game longer.
Games with great engagement + marketing resources can
stay on top charts for many years.
You just reinvest part of your revenue into marketing to earn even more. It works for games with high revenue per player (
ARPPU).
Nexters Presentation: $106 - Average net bookings per paying user(2) (Q4’20)
https://preview.redd.it/jsqcmby6img61.png?width=666&format=png&auto=webp&s=f96f6ef490ee2b16cf6ca01e8508df578bfdd302 Percentage of paying users
increases. Average net booking
increases.
With the
6% of paying users and
$106 net payment - it is quite easy to calculate that you earn
$6.36 from any user that
downloads the app, so you can spend on
advertisement a lot of money and you will
earn even more.
When you have
277% revenue
growth in
2019,
177% in
2020 it won’t just stop growing. Next year double-digit growth of revenue is highly probable.
From a statistical behavior the growth slowdown to zero is very unlikely. If we take examples of other super-hit games from
Supercell (Clash of Clans) and
Playrix (Gardenscapes).
Example: Playrix did continue to grow since 2016 explosive revenue withadding +41% YoY growth in 2018 +35% in 2019.
https://preview.redd.it/so9ijp08img61.png?width=667&format=png&auto=webp&s=6f6acbdf41374f89c045bb07c4b4e5f7dc235bf9 Another example: Supercell's revenue continued to grow at least 2 years after the revenue explosion before slowing down.
https://preview.redd.it/tjjuf159img61.png?width=855&format=png&auto=webp&s=01116616d83bbeeb34bbe98da012d22c3964f5d5 The growth Great games could continue to grow. Nexters Global estimates their net revenue to reach
$562 million dollars. That equals to
~$802 million gross revenue in 2023. And the company is
valued at just 1.9B now. Re-think that.📷
This chart also shows that they project only
+10.5% YoY growth in revenue in its current games after this year's gain. Which I think is too conservative considering the examples above. I understand that they’ve chosen the strategy not to mislead investors and should stay conservative, but I think
they will easily beat their own estimates and
20-25% growth is much more realistic.
The good thing is that
we can track their performance in terms of downloads and revenue in stores. We can stay ahead and know the data earlier than official numbers come out, which brings another level of transparency for investors.
Kismet Acquisition One Corp company
The company is led by CEO and Director Ivan Tavrin, the founder and Principal of investment firm Kismet Capital Group. Tavrin previously served as the CEO of PJSC MegaFon, Russia's second largest telecommunications operator, and before that, he founded UTH Russia, one of the largest independent media broadcasting groups in Russia.
Kismet Acquisition Two plans to target the internet and technology sectors operating in Europe, including Russia, as well as businesses established by founders with Russian origins.
Credit Suisse, BofA Securities and LionTree Advisors served as financial and capital markets advisors to Kismet Acquisition One Corp.
Advisors look good to me. The CEO's background and experience too. Additionally, he was one of the shareholders in the recently launched Russian IPO "
OZON" marketplace. Which is now
+120% up.
The only thing that sounds scary here is the word “Russia” everywhere. Is there an unwanted geopolitical risk? From the legal point of view, every entity is registered under British Law jurisdictions (Cyprus, BVI). So, basically, there shouldn't be any problems.
Well... they would better be in the US as many investors don’t like foreign companies. But there are great examples of super successful
Supercell and
Rovio that were NON-US too. And we know that the Russian Tech-sector is high qualified (Google Founder - Sergey Brin, Pavel Durov - Telegram, Vitalik Buterin - Etherium, and even Russian Hackers is a “meme”).
And as I said before their business looks crystal clear, anybody can check their metrics so they
can’t fraud the data, unlike, for example, Luckin Coffee did in China. Therefore, this kind of risk is eliminated.
3. Comparison with its competitors?
Let's talk about numbers. I’ve tried to compare the game developer to its direct competitors. I've selected only companies with major mobile game-driven revenue.
Here is the full spreadsheet access:
Nexters Global Comparison I’ve marked the concerning metric with
yellow and
red, Good metric with
green, Superb one with
dark-green color.
https://preview.redd.it/tmsosbtaimg61.png?width=1079&format=png&auto=webp&s=2b50cd7a1a54115bb496849c43b3611094fc6309 Please take time to read the numbers and come back after.
Update! With the latest news that Electronic Arts buys GLU Mobile with +39% premium from the market - the sector is officially undervalued. Thoughts on Nexters Global - Nexters is big enough in terms of revenue
- The MAU (Monthly Average Users) is not very big. While you can consider that as a “minus” that's actually the sign of a young company, with the opportunity to attract more users “cheaper” (with high efficiency). When you already big and you have hundreds of million players, you have to spend more and more money on user acquisition.
- No diversification. That’s a red flag. Hearing of 3 titles coming next year + Hero Wars 2 to be developed. And the idea of acquisition of small developers with excellent games to amplify their revenue 10-100 times promoting it around the World is the Next goal for Nexters. This will bring diversification.
- Remember that Supercell (also a European company, HQ in Finland) with its only best selling game was sold to Tencent at a $10.5 billion valuation. This "Hero Wars" game is currently following its path (in terms of growth numbers & revenue).
- Games are high gross margin projects. I assume this gross margin from the cost of revenue is: AppStore/Google Play 30% commission + spending on maintaining the Servers. That brings me to the industry average of 65%
- Marketing spending numbers are rational (20-40% zone), in order to stay profitable and to maintain modest growth.
- It's already a large scalable company. No “company growth issues” seen through this data. Sign of good management here.
- Unusually high net income seeing here. Assumption: Research & Development costs /Administrative spending / Sales and Marketing is much lower compared to other US companies. Probably they benefit from HQ being outside of the US. That should affect the company multiplicators (P/E) positive.
- With not very high US Market penetration - the opportunity still there.
- Game reviews/rating is essential in mobile games: The higher-rated games = the cheaper is the cost of user acquisition. The longer players stay in-game. The “4.5” rating tells me that customers of this company are very satisfied.
- Fascinating growth. Very young company. The slowdown in growth is expected but compound growth is still very probable.
- Estimated Compound Annual Growth (CAGR) is 25%. Which would bring the company ~$802 million revenue in 2023.
- Is the company valued right? It's more profitable in comparison to its competitors, its double-triple digit growth company with all signs of the trend to continue.
- The company is honest with its estimates and setting very realistic numbers. Other SPACs prefer to predict 10,20,50x revenue in the future even without proving they can scale. This company is doubling-tripling every year and shows estimates of 25% annual growth each year.
I ended up with numbers:
P/S = 4.19, P/E = 17.27. This valuation seems just right with current earnings and the sector, but not with the future growth. As there is a Hot trend in gaming and with outstanding YoY growth could be worth much much more.
4. $1.9B is cheap or expensive?
The current price of $KSMT (“GDEV”) is $10.15 which represents a $1.9B valuation. Before the deal is completed the price cannot be valued less than $10 due to SPAC rules. So there is simply no downside risk at this point..
But can it go up? What is fair valuation? Is there a risk of a selloff from shareholders? How rich the valuation can be in terms of P/E (Price to Sales ratio)?
First, let's find out the risk of insider selling:
Here is the sec report:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgadata/1814824/000121390021005589/ea134294ex99-1_kismet.htm The Transaction is expected to deliver up to $150 million in cash to the Company’s balance sheet before advisor fees and/or redemptions by Kismet Acquisition One Corp. current shareholders, with proceeds expected to be used for general working capital purposes and potential acquisitions. Existing shareholders of Nexters will receive a cash payment of up to $150 million pro-rata to their pre-money shareholdings, and will roll approximately 92% of their holdings into the combined company while agreeing to a 12 month lock-up (subject to certain exceptions). In addition, the founders and the management will receive 20.0 million Earn-Out shares over 3 years (with 50% of the Earn-Out released at $13.50 VWAP and 50% released at $17.00 VWAP), also subject to a 12 month lock-up. The Transaction will be funded by approximately $250 million held in trust by Kismet Acquisition One Corp., subject to any redemptions, as well as the additional $50 million investment by the SPAC Sponsor, Kismet Capital Group, via an affiliate. The investors will have a 12-month lock-up on selling + they get benefits on reaching the valuation 35% and 70% higher from the current price. This means that there will be no insider selling in the near term, which is very positive signal.
Acquisitions Nexters Global plans to use proceeds in M&A (buying small game development studios with great projects that just don’t have enough cash, expertise, or right developer team) to benefit from its situation in order to launch great games worldwide.
https://preview.redd.it/xhypgzqfimg61.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=642c03fecbb851984527c46774beb0ecc44eba0a It is a common mistake to assume that great games can be run by small studios or individuals, as in 2020 you need at least a couple of million dollars spent on marketing to understand if the project is worth it, or not. Small developers can’t afford it. On the other side, Nexters can benefit from it really well.
If they are successful in that, we could see 10+ new titles in the future. That could diversify its game portfolio, making this company a safe bet for Hedge funds and other market players, driving future growth.
“Hero Wars 2” game announcement. Hero Wars is the top-grossing game, which generates most of the revenue. With “Hero Wars 2” announcement the company can benefit a lot..
Usually, game sequels can do very well, as they are easier to promote, finding their “fan base” from the beginning. This could create a new source of income, work as a diversification, launch the new cycle of the revenue stream for many years ahead.
Partnership with Playrix founders Here is another thing that I want to focus on:
Bukhman brothers acquired a
43% stake in Nexters in 2018
They are founders of “Playrix” - a private mobile game developer company, currently valued at $7B(valued in Q1 2020). Now more likely
~11B as their revenue increased
1.5 times during 2020.
Please read these articles in Bloomberg and Forbes first:
- https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-29/billionaire-gaming-brothers-emerge-as-tencent-s-biggest-rival
- https://translate.google.com/translate?sl=ru&tl=en&u=https://www.forbes.ru/milliardery/410509-nash-rost-ne-svyazan-napryamuyu-s-lokdaunom-milliarder-igor-buhman-o-tom-chto
Summary from the articles:
Cashing out (selling out to Tencent or Activision Blizzard) is not interesting right now. We are growing every year. Game industry multiplicators of public companies were priced wrong . This year has changed it. And this trend will continue as top games can grow for many many years, reengaging users with updates. Playrix is not interested in IPO's at this valuation. They want to wait until the market changes and start pricing gaming companies at different valuations, not the 4-5 year revenues, but maybe more like Tech companies are valued now (P/S 20-30 instead of 4-5)? I can assume that Playrix founders are
interested in the long-term success of Nexters Global SPAC-merger in order to change how markets price the gaming companies as they want to bring Playrix to an IPO in the future. They want to wait until the market starts pricing gaming companies at different valuations, not the 4-5 year revenues, but maybe more like Tech companies are valued now (P/S 20-30 instead of 4-5)?
So, for the Bukhman brothers who own
43% shares,
Nexters Global is a long-term play company. They don’t want/need to cash out.
I also think that at some point,
Tencent could just buy 20-30% of the company through the open market (buying shares). Why? Because it is common for Tencent to buy a stake in gaming companies that earn a lot of cash and priced at these valuations.
https://preview.redd.it/uphpbubcimg61.png?width=804&format=png&auto=webp&s=4f35889049fa9302786bf65d1b83f02a92d71eef
Summary
In my personal opinion, this is a great company with a bright future.
Valuation seems reasonable and there is a big upside if any of those happens:
- Company starts to actively search for acquisition targets (we will see from press-releases)
- Company launches "Hero Wars 2" title
- The company beats its own low guidance estimates (which I think the most probable)
- Company launches more titles which enter “Top ranks” in AppStore/Google Play store.
- Aggressive Tencent/Other major Gaming Holdings buying.
At this exact moment, the fair valuation of the company will move to
$3-4 billion dollar. (+100% upside).
At this right moment of the time as the price is near $10 there is literally no risk in a pre-merger state, as SPAC can’t go below $10 price by its concept.
Disclosure: At the moment of writing this article I do have a position in $KSMT, that is not more than 10% of my entire portfolio. I do not plan to sell at any nearest time in future. Stocks are risk assets and this is not investment advice.
Preamble
I'm going to talk about some of the community's sentiment towards Genshin Impact and what to anticipate for and to expect in the future from miHoYo and future games they release.
If you think this post is too long, at least skip to sections you might be interested in. Or to the last section and things that interest you in that section (11. My personal thoughts on what to anticipate for and to expect). I've removed a lot of hyperlinks to save on characters.
Very little people know about miHoYo's upcoming game, Project X: Project X: Project X is a new ray-traced action shooter from popular anime game developer Mihoyo, coming in mid-2021. The game features next-gen anime-style rendering and advanced interactive physics on a spherical open-world planet.
https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/geforce/news/gtc-china-2019-ray-tracing-games/ Relevant game experience - I've been playing Honkai Impact 3rd (HI3) since it's global release back in March 2018 and am still playing/plan on playing until its story finishes, completely F2P
- I've dabbled in Guns GirlZ (miHoYo's game before HI3) a long time ago
- I go on the Google Play store and preregister any game that has anime aesthetics. I've tried playing any semi-popular gacha game you could think of
- I've tried and played a lot of MMOs
- I'm primarily a PC gamer (e.g. League of Legends since season 1)
Preface
I'll be mainly drawing comparisons between GI and HI3 in the "My personal thoughts on what to anticipate for and to expect" section. As of writing this, GI is essentially how HI3 is in terms of the systems in place (and YouTube and social media). I'll also be basing what I anticipate for and expect of the game with what I've experienced in HI3.
I went into this game blind. I never played the Closed Beta Test (CBT), watched any gameplay of the CBT or read anything about the game besides what was on the official website.
Reminders I'd like to remind everyone that a subreddit is only a very small minority of the actual population of the user base a subreddit is about. Subreddits are almost always echo chambers for topics and tend to silence opposing opinions.
Companies are for profit. miHoYo is no exception. They know what they're doing to maximize profits. They had/have such a successful game with HI3 to convince investors to invest in the development of game. If you want things to change, you vote with your wallet.
Table of Contents
- Should I keep playing? (16 sec)
- Game release expectations (59 sec)
- What is Genshin Impact? (48 sec)
- "End game" (16 sec)
- Spiral Abyss & the "meta" (1 min 10 sec)
- Power creep (23 sec)
- Primo Gems, Gacha and Resin (2 mins 16 sec)
- Addressing community statements (4 mins 50 sec)
- Notoriety of miHoYo (26 sec)
- The future of Genshin Impact (35 sec)
- My personal thoughts on what to anticipate for and to expect (13 mins 42 sec, every unbolded point below totalled)
- Successful release (1 min 5 sec)
- System, QOL and in-game content changes and updates to anticipate for and expect (1 min 17 sec)
- Power creep (23 sec)
- Animations, music and story to anticipate for and expect (2 mins 3 sec)
- Nitpicks (38 sec)
- Addressing the player base that mainly play gacha games (4 mins 34 sec)
- Addressing the player base that mainly play PC games/MMOs (1 min 22 sec)
- Project X (16 sec)
- Final Thoughts (44 sec)
- Bias (19 sec)
- TL;DR (15 sec)
Approximate reading time of ~26 mins at 225wpm.
With all that out of the way, lets get started.
Should I keep playing?
Do you still enjoy playing the game? If so, go ahead and continue to enjoy playing the game. If not, you might want to consider taking a break until new content comes out, or if there is a significant systematic change to the game.
There's nothing keeping you from not playing the game, you can always quit.
Game release expectations
From the general sentiment of Reddit and the first auto suggested result from Google, people expected GI to be an MMORPG-like game where you can play with your friends (like a typical MMORPG) but were confused about what Genshin Impact was/is once they started playing (specifically when they reached Adventure Rank (AR) 7).
If you're a person that falls into what I said above, you won't like hearing the following.
It's not miHoYo's fault, it's yours. You were misled by the game's marketing when you could have done due diligence and researched details about the game beforehand (e.g by going on YouTube and finding out details about the game from their 3 closed betas).
An analogy to this is AMD vs Intel & AMD vs NVIDIA, where the three companies try to sell you their products with cherry picked performance numbers. The community always echoes to "wait for the product to be released instead of pre-ordering" and "wait for 3rd party reviews".
When people have expectations and those expectations are broken, most of the time depending on context, all they're left with are negative feelings (e.g. disappointment) whether or not it's warranted.
But even though it's not miHoYo's fault, it's the company's job to keep their player base invested in their game, and by extension their company.
What is Genshin Impact?
Genshin Impact is a mostly single player RPG with co-op elements. The game implements the gacha mechanic to get characters and weapons exclusive to gacha. The game also implements the typical stamina/energy mechanic in gacha games in the form of resin.
This is where a disconnect comes from. Typical PC gamers aren't able to endlessly grind the game to progress (I've played Black Desert Online starting in beta, I understand grinding; grinding for hours in the same location for a couple thousandths of a percentage of character experience points per mob kill) while gacha gamers don't like the gacha system in place due the system being worse than other gacha games in terms of the resin recharge rate and gacha rates.
But people still play GI as there are various reasons why people like playing this game e.g.:
- Open world
- Aesthetics
- Music
- Combat/gameplay
- Characters they like
But the thing I want to stress is the main point of this game is the story. Everything else is secondary/complimentary to the story. Everything revolves around the story.
"End game"
A lot of people on this subreddit are probably at the point in the game where there's no more story content to do, and all they're doing are:
- Daily commissions
- Farming materials (mats) in the world
- Using naturally regenerated resin to get domain-only mats & world boss mats
- Doing the "real end game" of GI, Spiral Abyss.
Spiral Abyss & the "meta"
Spiral Abyss is currently the end game of GI due to its difficulty and rewards. Once you're able to fully clear the Spiral Abyss, you're free to do whatever you want in the game (though you've always been free to do whatever you want) for now (until they release something else that replaces Spiral Abyss as the end game).
This brings me to the "meta" and tier lists. You can have a tier list with ratings for multiple categories (e.g. exploration, aesthetics, etc.). But generally when you see a tier list for GI, it's going to be about how strong characters are in combat, and specifically the Spiral Abyss. There are world bosses too, but they currently seem to scale off of AR and what the game thinks how strong your characters should be at that AR. Comparing this to the Spiral Abyss where it requires you to max out your characters, weapons and artifacts. All this results in the "meta", which is what characters are optimal in clearing the Spiral Abyss.
But the game as it is right now has nothing that pits players against each other (typically in the form of a leader board), so the "meta" doesn't matter.
The Spiral Abyss as we know of now will have their mobs change over time. This will require you at a base level to have one main damage character of each element maxed out.
Note the existence of a timer in Spiral Abyss. You need to be able to do enough damage within the time constraints to clear floors. Doing damage sells.
Power creep
As the story progresses, characters develop and characters are bound to get stronger. The characters available now are inevitably going to be power crept by newer (and existing) characters.
If there is (or isn't) a mechanic in the game (e.g. shields, attack speed, etc.), miHoYo will make characters, weapons, artifacts and mobs that revolve around that mechanic.
Yu-Gi-Oh! is the go to example of power creep for every game.
The more text and conditions there are in a description, the more power crept the thing is
Primo Gems, Gacha and Resin
Here's every post I thoroughly read about the topic, and a couple comment threads in each (sorted by upvotes):
- 15.0k,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/j7taod/everything_wrong_with_genshin_impact_community/
- 8465,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/j5lksg/to_all_the_players_defending_poor_design_in/
- 8147,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/jignnt/im_in_ar41_and_ill_be_polite_but_resources_in/
- 5311,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/je3uw4/before_you_spend_money_on_this_game_consider_this/
- 3913,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/j741n3/dear_mihoyo_and_devs_please_please_dont_spoil/
- 3631,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/j6fto8/genshin_impact_dont_let_yourself_fall_victim_to_a/
- 3464,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/j799kw/i_will_say_my_biggest_tip_to_enjoy_the_game_and/
- 2791,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/j6qxwo/genshin_feels_like_an_open_world_rpg_that_become/
- 2279,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/j8o46b/reexploring_the_world_should_be_a_core_endgame/
- 2171,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/jbc64u/there_needs_to_be_a_way_consistently_earn/
- 2074,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/jf8hqt/the_r_word_but_mostly_xp_mora_the_antiwhaling/
- 2073,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/jd3gcl/character_exp_from_monsters_should_be_a_viable/
- 1890,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/jarax7/my_views_on_how_resin_can_be_changed_for_the/
- 1635,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/jgbmum/a_short_and_long_term_solution_to_the_empty_world/
- 1249,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/jlck92/ridiculous_impact_know_the_vast_world_that_youre/
- 881,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/jgmtch/money_is_not_the_only_way_you_help_mihoyo/
- 876,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/jcszfh/how_much_content_is_there_actually_in_genshin/
- 742,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/j7f2zj/lets_not_be_white_knights_please_this_game/
- 722,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/jbr57l/how_to_improve_genshin_and_its_open_world/
- 637,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/j5xc74/a_gacha_veterans_opinion_on_genshins_gacha/
- 568,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/hrc4oy/warped_perspectives_on_gacha_rates_and_pity/
- 559,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/j7pvqs/a_discussion_on_genshin_impact_from_a_chinese/
- 494,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/j8v7t4/the_lore_vs_the_gameplay/
- 483,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/jgqnvt/mihoyo_staff_silencing_us_speaking_out_against/
- 340,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/j6vj0d/positive_notes_for_gis_future_solid_base_game/
- 321,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/j5ds1t/concerns_about_the_longterm_f2pfriendliness_of/
- 313,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/ipmsy4/game_issues_with_genshin_impact_mihoyo_please/
- 291,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/j6kmoc/resin_in_genshin_impact_and_how_it_effects_the/
- 232,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/j6wkrt/the_monetization_of_mihoyos_games_is_part_of_the/
- 215,https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/j7atw9/my_take_on_the_negative_reviews_as_a_long_time/
It's interesting how low the gacha rate of this game is compared to most other gacha games (Exos Heroes with the 0.5% though). But you have to remember that there's a pity system in place of 90, with 75 being a soft pity:
https://www.reddit.com/Genshin_Impact/comments/jo9d9d/the_5_rate_is_not_uniform_06_there_is_a_soft_pity/
You have gacha games where there's a higher gacha rate, but then you see/know of people that have spent multiple times the expected pull rate currency amount without getting what they wanted.
You also have to take into account what you're getting out of a character in GI (explained later on in
Addressing the player base that mainly play gacha games).
The stamina mechanic in GI is in the form of the resin system. Resin is the cost for a lot of in-game content that rewards progression mats (e.g. talent books, mora, etc.). The cost of a resin refill increases over time, further discouraging players from progressing faster than at the rate miHoYo set the recharge rate to.
This is really interesting because in combination with the relative low gacha rates of 0.5% for a 5⭐ and 5.1% for a 4⭐ with characteweapon progression being stunted by resin, it discourages a vast majority of the player base to spend money and wish because they wouldn't even be able to use their newly wished character unless they already had the mats.
This is what the system in place is trying to do. It's getting players to play the game once or twice a day, for 20-30 minutes for daily commissions and using resin.
This is what you see for the stamina mechanic typically implemented in gacha games, but to the extreme to discouraging players from playing more and progressing more than the amount the system intends.
How you enjoy the game is your preference and might not be the same for others, whether you enjoy grinding for hours and hours, or enjoy playing for a couple minutes to a couple hours every day. This typically correlates to the amount of time a person can allocate throughout a day.
One thing I'd like to point out are people saying that there's nothing to do outside of resin. What they typically mean is that there's no activity that "directly contributes to instantly progress my characters/weapons/artifacts". You can spend hours and hours traversing the world, fighting mobs and collecting mats from them, collecting mats in the world, challenging the Spiral Abyss, etc.. Look at Enviosity on Twitch for example.
Having options is nice.
Which brings me to...
Addressing community statements
I'll reiterate that I thoroughly read every post and a couple of the top comment threads of each post. There are a lot of valid complaints about the game and great suggestions for the game.
The three things that ticked me off the most are the statements/imperatives that:
- Because miHoYo targeted/appealed GI to the global main stream audience on Android and iOS, alongside releases on PC and PS4 (and eventually the Nintendo Switch), it puts GI in some upper echelon AAA tier, so the gacha mechanic causes the game to have an identity crisis
- Tell other people "how to play the game" on the basis of their own preferences, leading to obvious hypocrisy
- Generalistic statements about different subsets of the player base with no explanation and making sweeping assumptions based on statements
1. First things first is that a lot of these statements are black-and-white, but the topic they're making these statements about aren't. This means these statements are wrong and misleading. These statements typically have the person:
- Stating things are mutually exclusive, when they aren't
- Claims that are relative, without providing a (absolute) basis to be relative to
Wikipedia says an "AAA (pronounced and sometimes written Triple-A) is an informal classification used for video games produced and distributed by a mid-sized or major publisher, typically having higher development and marketing budgets."
I assume what people typically think when they think of an AAA game is a game that takes the limits of what computer hardware at the time can provide (depending on platform) and implements that in the game. They can do so because there's money to do so. This can also correlate to the amount of money used in marketing or the existing franchise itself (if a franchise is popular, it has innate marketing in it's fan base).
From what I've stated above, do I consider GI an AAA game for the global main stream audience? Yes.
So assuming GI is an AAA game for the main stream audience, then comes the statement/sentiment that because it implements the gacha mechanic, the game has an identity crisis.
Being an AAA game and having the gacha mechanic aren't mutually exclusive. I've already proven it above by stating GI is an AAA game from the definition provided.
The gacha mechanic is specifically about spending a currency to randomly receive an object (capsule-toy vending machine). The gacha mechanic is essentially the loot box mechanic found in many AAA western games.
The resin system GI has in place is not the gacha mechanic. It's the stamina/energy mechanic you typically see in mobile gacha games to stunt progression until it regenerates over time, typically allowing players to pay a currency to recharge/refresh stamina/energy.
And the same as before, being an AAA game and having a stamina mechanic aren't mutually exclusive.
It's an AAA game with the gacha mechanic and stamina mechanic, there's no identity crisis. miHoYo knows what they're doing.
Does the stamina mechanic detract from the game? You have a subset of the players that typically have played games that can be played for hours and hours upon end that don't like this system because they can't progress at the rate they want. You have a subset of the players that typically play gacha games that don't like how slow the resin recharge rate and high resin recharge is, relative to what they've experienced.
Does the gacha mechanic detract from the game? You have a subset of the players that typically have played games that can be played for hours and hours upon end to get things they want. You have a subset of the players that typically play gacha games that don't like how the gacha mechanic is implemented, typically complaining about the gacha rates.
The answers to the two questions above are completely subjective (the person's preferences), and you'll see that a subset of the extremes for the two types of players I mentioned (the "far PC gamer" and the "far gacha gamer") are the ones that express the most issue with the game, and in the form of black-and-white statements.
Which all comes back to "the main stream audience", "casual audience", whatever term you want to use. I mentioned before "that a subreddit is only a very small minority of the actual population of the user base a subreddit is about. Subreddits are almost always echo chambers for topics and tend to silence opposing opinions."
When you take a look at who's writing these posts/threads/articles/etc., they aren't a part of the "main stream audience". They might think they are, but they're assuming the main stream audience has the same gaming tendencies they do.
But then here comes the grey. You have players that are okay with the system in place, which I'll address in point 3.
2. The far ends of the player base have specific preferences on how they want the game to work. A subset of them don't like this, so they express so. But in a lot of instances, they think/make negative comments on the people that have opposing preferences (or don't mind the system in place).
A subset of the far ends put down how these players enjoy the game, and at the same time are defensive at how they typically enjoy games and simultaneously push their preferences/views on other people.
This is hypocrisy.
3. Finally, for some of the people that make these statements on social media or to people that think this way.
Do they actually read what the people that oppose their thoughts and opinions say or do they see a post on Reddit/a headline somewhere, glance at the title, notice it's not attacking the system, and not read the post at all or to try and understand where the opposing side is coming from?
A person making a factual statement (or a subjective statement) does not mean they are defending or attacking the statement's various opinions around the statement's topic.
For example, I could say that "I like X bubble tea made by Y store". The statement does not:
- Defend, support or attack Y store/X bubble tea
- Defend, support or attack people that don't like bubble tea/X bubble tea/Y store
- Say that X bubble tea/Y store can/can't be better
- Etc.
See where I'm going with this?
Notoriety of miHoYo
From what the Chinese community have said about miHoYo, the gist is that miHoYo has a monopoly on high quality gacha games. HI3 was released in 2016 in China, and the only game that matches or beats its quality today is GI, Punishing: Gray Raven (released December 2019; in essence HI3 with Nier aesthetics) and X2: Eclipse (currently in CBT). As such, miHoYo sets up a system to really encourage (using predatory tactics to entice) users to spend money to progress (e.g. progression of collecting characters, maxing out characters, etc.) in anything but the story.
The future of Genshin Impact
I see GI, and by this extension this subreddit, like Fire Emblem Heroes. Initially the community was full of life e.g. strategy guides, fan art, cosplay, etc.. But due to decisions to maximize profit, the game died off and only a smaller dedicated fan base is left.
GI was released during a pretty optimal time. Other major games weren't releasing or were delayed when GI was released (Cyberpunk 2077 being released in 2077?), so the game's still on the top of everyone's attention. Once other games of the same or higher quality come out (mainly Blue Protocol, but unknow global release date, and isn't the same genre of game as GI), the player base of Genshin Impact might lower or won't spend as much money, forcing miHoYo to take action.
My personal thoughts on what to anticipate for and to expect
If you reached this part (or skipped to this part), it probably means you're going to continue playing GI for now and want to know what to anticipate for and to expect.
But first, I don't think the points I mentioned in
The future of Genchin Impact will happen to GI due to its high quality.
Successful release The release of GI was great (US$245 million in the first month, sure if it takes into account every platform), but I personally expected more in terms of quality of the game and content since HI3 was already the highest quality gacha game until now (my criteria under
Addressing the player base that mainly play gacha games). Though they're killing it in the music department.
You have to realize how successful the release of this actually game was, and by extension HI3.
This game has no previous franchise that automatically gives it a huge dedicated fan base. When I say huge, I am talking about the likes of, Fate/Grand Order (F/GO) with the Fate franchise, any mobile game based off a huge/popular anime/manga franchise, any typical PC/console game that's based off a huge/popular franchise, etc..
For how high quality the game is, HI3 must have done pretty good to convince investors to invest in GI with GI's US$100 million development cost.
Note that GI is aimed towards the main stream audience (your typical PC gamer and mobile gamer). HI3 specifically to mobile gamers (until they added a PC port). Also, the genre is a huge part in the popularity of HI3. Fantasy is more popular than sci-fi.
It's up to miHoYo to retain their player base for GI and for their future products.
System, QOL and in-game content changes and updates to anticipate for and expect Almost all the quality of life changes that're applicable to GI and HI3 are already in HI3 e.g.:
Expect to see the following added to GI that already exist in HI3 (though I'm probably forgetting things):
- Locking weapons and artifacts
- Characters having load outs for weapons and artifacts (no longer will you need to search for artifacts when testing/swapping artifacts)
- Higher FPS options over 60fps
- Changing key bindings
Also the nice attention to small details e.g.:
- Weapons change how they look after being fully upgraded
- Item descriptions
- CEO of miHoYo in the game, throwing HOMUs at you (HI3's iconic mascot)
- I wouldn't be surprised if Diona's eyes glow in the dark like a cat
Everything you see for GI in terms of YouTube and social media content have been the same and/or higher quality as HI3 e.g.:
- Character Collected Miscellanies, Character Tales
- OST releases
- 2D/3D animations
- Manga
- Major story/version updates
- Multi language content
- Art contests
So...
Expect to see the things that GI hasn't done yet but have done for HI3 (not in any specific order):
- New game modes/content
- New weapons
- New outfit showcases (HI3 has a magazine styled demo for new outfits on YouTube, but I don't think they'd do the same for GI), depending on the tier of outfit they can change how character abilities look and sound, and the character's animations and voice lines
- Pets
- Customizable housing
- Official wallpapers on their website
- Short animated series' on YouTube
- Event websites that may/may not contain contests
- More contests (e.g. cosplay)
- Merch
I expect them to implement more MMO aspects e.g.:
Power creep I touched on this before. In HI3, miHoYo started releasing character specific weapons and artifacts. Because of this, it stripped out any real strategy out of weapons and artifacts. Genshin Impact seems to be different since there're no artifacts locked behind gacha. All the unique strengths of characters are dumped into their constellations.
If characters are power crept, expect miHoYo to do something to make the characters that were power crept more relevant, typically correlating the the progression of the story and its characters.
Animations, music and story to anticipate for and expect It's the resounding sentiment of the HI3 fan base of "when is an anime for HI3 coming out?". The story of HI3 started in 2016 and is said to progress for 3 more years until a new arc/story takes place. There is so much content in the main story and side stories that can span multiple seasons for an anime.
I'm reiterating that the story of GI is the main point of the game. I'm worried they won't do anything unique or special (unlike HI3) outside of your typical fantasy/RPG story plot lines since this game is aimed towards the main stream audience.
miHoYo has their own music label HOYO-MiX. and their own animation studio miHoYoAnime (they've previously outsourced help). They've produced/are producing banger OSTs and animations. In HI3, when there's a major character development arc, they come out with a banger animated short with a banger song (with lyrics) for that animated short for that character. They sometimes do this for events e.g. (spoiler alert for everything except the last video):
I'm waiting for the same in GI.
The difference in GI and HI3 is that HI3's main story isn't canon with the existence of the player (captain). It's like a story book. The manga (and short visual novels) are the same. HI3 has an alternative universe that involves the player that comes in the form of in game event stories (with all the event stories following the same story). GI seems to be reversed. We're playing GI with the player (traveller) that's canon to the main story of GI. The manga is not canon with the traveller. You'll need to read the manga if you want to know everything about the GI world.
The problem is that I don't know how there's going to be an epic anime-style animation/song for now since the story revolves around the player travelling to different regions. We don't have enough story and character development with the different characters in the game, so there won't be any animation/song that can evoke any strong emotions.
There're songs/OSTs in HI3 that are sorely missing on their official YouTube and/or Spotify/Apple Music:
Guns GirlZ has some great songs:
You'd have to dig for them on YouTube (pretty easy on YouTube) or Google, because of the disparity between the Chinese community and the global community.
You can find GI's songs/OSTs here:
Common links:
Nitpicks - I wish some in game resources that load into the game were higher resolution so that they wouldn't be pixelated when I look at them
- The character models in GI are the same quality as HI3, except GI has better lighting probably due to a newer game engine (HI3 was released in 2016).
- There's a disparity between content that's advertised for the Chinese community and the global community, even though it's available for everyone. You'll only know about it if you randomly read something online that mentions it (e.g. MMD 3D models)
I'm disappointed with is the level of "coolness" of the characters' talents (subjective). HI3's characters have super cool character abilities and ability combos. I'm still waiting for the same in Genshin Impact (probably after characters are power crept).
Addressing the player base that mainly play gacha games The gacha rates for 5⭐ and 4⭐ characters and weapons are low compared to other gacha games.
Now actually consider what you get from the characters (weapons give you higher stats):
- A high quality 3D model & animations
- A playable character
- A vast array of character voice lines from amazing voice actors/actresses in English/Japanese/Chinese/Korean
Compare this to almost every other gacha game, where you either get static/animated 2D art or low quality 3D models, maybe with multiple voice languages. Quality being completely dependent on the character's rarity.
GI on the other hand beats every other gacha game out of the water, with in my opinion the 4⭐ characters being the actual stars of the show (but not Bennett, sorry Bennett).
miHoYo invests in their characters that make you like them.
There are other reasons to play a game as I stated previously besides what you typically do for gacha games (e.g. collecting characters/weapons, auto-battling etc.).
There are a lot of gacha games out there in a saturated market and the vast majority of them all follow the same gacha system. It might be a good idea to think about the game you're going to download and play because of the game publisher's marketing, and whether to invest time and resources into it because they're so many other games in the same genre.
To do so, you have to think about a game in a more critical manner outside of the content of the game.
Of course, if a game as a monopoly of the genre (GI being the only open world gacha game), there's no other choice. What I look for in a gacha game before even trying to play it is:
- Game optimization
- Game UI/design
- Audio quality
- Gameplay/gameplay quality
- The game producer's past history and tendencies
Game optimization If I a game runs poorly and is unoptimized even though other more demanding games run better, I have no reason to invest in the game.
One example that falls into this category is the gacha game that's been recently released called Illusion Connect. The game doesn't run on Android 11 at the time of writing is, with their support saying it's because Android 11 is too new:
https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.superprism.illusion&hl=en_CA&gl=US&reviewId=gp%3AAOqpTOFC-IBCuWinIURXdr3ZpChpbtlWdmQuM9kseAkpR0_1LHfpyOZN3qb_edaM76jOQqVcV2cOgdea5LL70Q
Look at every other game that runs on Android 11. Look at GI that runs great on mobile.
Game UI/design If the game UI/design is bad, I don't invest in the game. You can search online on what makes good game design/UI, but a couple points for me are:
- Consistent style/design
- Clean/uncluttered UI
- Proper UI scaling on devices
- Animations/transition animations
- Difficulty in getting to different parts of the UI/game due to how things are organized
Style is subjective, but inconsistent style/design in UI isn't.
In terms of gacha games, you'll typically have characters that are drawn by different artists, causing a discrepancy in what you consider a character's art to be in terms of quality. This can be jarring for players.
For example, F/GO has bad UI:
- The majority of UI elements are needlessly large, though you may like this yourself
- It takes many traverses through different UI levels/layers to get to specific things, in part due to large UI elements taking up screen space
- a lot of UI animations aren't smooth, and vary in smoothness causing inconsistency
A good example of UI/design is Apple. All their products follow a consistent style (hardware and software), and they pay close attention to the small details in their operating systems, apps, etc., specifically transition animations.
Audio quality I'm specifically talking about the quality of audio:
- Good stereo audio and depth
- Audio bitrate
- Quality of sound effects
The worst offenders are gacha games that have audio that sounds like they're 16kbps.
You then have extras like songs and original sound tracks (OSTs).
Gameplay/gameplay quality The vast majority of gacha games follow the same setup:
- Advertise the game primarily with art/animation, and not the actual game/gameplay, which means they're clearly enticing players to play their game to collecting characters -> gacha
- Turn-based strategy in the form of two teams of characters fighting, having auto-battle as an option
- Use of low quality 2D sprites/3D models
If you enjoy the gameplay, go ahead and enjoy the gameplay.
The game producer's past history and tendencies If a game passes every previous check, then I'll look at the game producer's past history and tendencies to assume what to expect of the game.
I'm looking at F/GO once again. The game's the top grossing gacha game in the world, yet the game producer doesn't update the game and it's UI to be better or higher quality.
Conclusion I put gacha games on par with high profile PC games. I'm not going to be wasting time and resources on a low quality game that I'm looking to invest in for an extended period of time.
The following, most notable gacha games to me that fit the criteria above are:
- GI [miHoYo Limited]
- HI3 [miHoYo Limited]
- Exos Heroes [LINE Games], bad optimization. pay a lot to progress in story
Epic Seven [Smilegate Megaport], Arknights [Yostar Limited.] (the UI is 👌), The Seven Deadly Sins: Grand Cross [Netmarble] and Fire Emblem Heroes [Nintendo Co., Ltd.] almost gets a pass.
Addressing the player base that mainly play PC games/MMOs I suggest reading the section above.
Welcome to the gacha mechanic and stamina mechanic.
As long as miHoYo generates their intended profit, you'll be stuck with these two mechanics in their current state if you continue playing.
I suspect they're so restrictive on resin so the player doesn't get bored with the game (less time played = less bored of seeing/doing the same things) since there is a lack of end game content that will hopefully get resolved in the future as they add more to the game.
Feel free to disagree with me.
There are other aspects of the game to enjoy.
The gacha mechanic isn't a bad model for a game depending on how it's set up, and whether you're talking about the perspective of the player or game producer. In terms of the game producer, the gacha mechanic is great for profit.
This is probably your first time playing a gacha game and knowing about the company miHoYo. Companies don't owe you anything, and you're not a long time fan of miHoYo to warrant being owed to.
This isn't like living in a country where if you don't like something about the country, (most of the time) you are stuck in the country. It's a game and you're welcome to not play it.
This is the only time I mention in post that this AAA level game is free to play.
Everything I've stated previously says that GI discourages you from wishing and spending primo gems on resin refreshes. It makes people that really want a charactecharacters and/or really want to progress in the game spend money, so it's even more on them if they do spend money.
This game will last a while, and there is a lot of content coming up.
Project X I'm leaning towards the game being a story based open-world game (alien-robot/mech) with the gacha mechanic for characters and weapons. I learn towards this because of the proven successful game model miHoYo's used. On the other hand it could be a PvP shooter with a cosmetics shop. It's really up in the air for me until we get more news. I'm heavily leaning towards miHoYo to use the same/similar engine/aesthetics as their Lumi N0va Desktop instead of what they use in HI3 and GI:
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCdS7c_U9QrpEn5MxZje7RXA Final Thoughts miHoYo is one of my favourite game companies to date from the experience I had with HI3 and now GI. miHoYo has done what I've always wanted in a game (until Matrix levels of technology come out), which is a high quality 3D anime-style open world story-driven RPG with tons of great out-of-game content. For me, the story & character development takes priority over to everything else (then the music and animations).
One of the big things miHoYo did that propelled my opinion of them is their creating of a PC port of HI3 with higher quality graphics settings. They didn't need to, but they did because they could and a subset of the player base wanted it.
You can read a brief history of miHoYo, their CEO, and their games from:
People loved something, were inspired by it and set out to create and spread what they loved to the world.
Bias You might think that because I like miHoYo, that I'm bias towards them, that everything/a lot of things I've said is invalidated. That's where you're wrong kiddo. Just because I'm bias towards miHoYo doesn't mean everything/a lot of things I've said is invalidated (liking the games miHoYo have produced and the things they've done in the games and out of the games). They aren't mutually exclusive.
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